The Stanley Cup playoffs can teach us something, whether it's in success or in failure.
Sometimes these lessons stick. Sometimes they're lost in time. Sometimes, by the end of the postseason, there are new lessons to learn.
Here are eight hard lessons from the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs through Monday night's action.
The Leafs are Cup-worthy
Yes, I mean the Stanley Cup. Why do you ask?
Oh right, because it's the Toronto Maple Leafs. They haven't played for the Cup since winning it for the final time in 1967, a drought of 56 seasons. They haven't made the conference finals since 2002. There's a reason the Stanley Cup is safe inside the Hockey Hall of Fame: There's no chance of anyone in Toronto ever lifting it.
Every Maple Leafs postseason team drags a half-century of dashed expectations and self-inflicted despair like an anchor. Their most arduous opponent continues to be themselves, when they allow seeds of doubt to blossom into a funeral arrangement for their Stanley Cup aspirations.
So what do we make of a Toronto team that doesn't allow those seeds to take root? Because this one hasn't. This one has five wins in seven games over two rounds. This one has members of the Core Five -- the Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares, plus Matthew Knies, as ESPN's P.K. Subban christened them -- making clutch plays in big spots. More than anything, this one has the psychological stylings of Craig Berube, and now has proof of concept.
When the St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup with Berube as coach in 2019, they might have been one of the mentally toughest teams to even hoist it. From being last in the NHL on Jan. 2 to the way they moved past calamity and controversies on the way to the championship, the Blues simply moved on in every sense of the phrase.
As assistant coach Larry Robinson put it in 2019: "We've been counted out at times all year in certain situations, and every time we were counted out, we came back. We had calls go against us in this series and other series. Most teams might have panicked and did something stupid. But they showed a lot of will and a lot of heart."
When Berube was hired by Toronto, part of the pitch was that he could bring that stoic postseason focus to a franchise that only knew panic and "doing something stupid." The theory was tested in the first round and the center held: The old Leafs would have panicked after losing Game 5 at home, dropped Game 6 in Ottawa and then lost back in Toronto for maximum fan anguish. Instead, they won Game 6 convincingly, and the Battle of Ontario was over.
In Game 1 of the second round against Florida, they jumped to a 2-0 lead and then a 4-1 lead, saw Anthony Stolarz leave with an upper-body injury and watched the Panthers rally ... only to hold them off for the win.
Maybe this version is built differently. Maybe the harsh education of playoff failures has taught the Core Five how to win. Maybe they have the right coach to reinforce those lessons and block out the noise when adversity hits.
Maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs are Cup-worthy.
Or maybe I will regret this declaration by Game 6 of this series against Florida.
Maybe the playoffs are just high-scoring from now on?
When you think of a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup playoffs, what score do you imagine? Something tightly played with few scoring chances? Where the goalies are the true last lines of defense in a 2-1 nail-biter, in a game in which power plays will be handed out only for an obvious procedural faux pas (puck over the glass, too many men on the ice) or attempted murder?
Yet Game 7 between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche was a 4-2 game. And Game 7 between the Jets and Blues was a 4-3 game, despite advancing to two overtimes.
That's part of a larger playoff trend. Through 47 first-round games, there were 307 goals scored for a 6.53 goals-per-game average. If that average held over the next three rounds, the 2024-25 postseason would be the highest scoring playoff since the 1992-93 season (6.84 goals per game).
If the average goals per game finished above six, that would mark three of the past four postseasons in which the mark was achieved. Again, you'd have to go back to 1992-95 to find a similar multiyear trend. In fact, the NHL went 26 seasons between playoffs that had an average goals per game of six or more goals (1995-2022).
Scoring has been up significantly in the NHL over the past eight seasons. Even with two seasons of year-over-year decline in goals per game -- we've gone from 6.36 goals per game in 2022-23 down to 6.08 in this regular season -- the NHL has been over six goals per game in six of the past seven seasons, with a small dip for the 868-game COVID season in 2020-21 (5.87).
One recent factor: Power plays continue to cook with bacon grease. The conversion rate this season was 21.6%, the ninth best all time and the highest since 1985-86 (22.2%). The NHL has had a leaguewide power-play success rate of better than 20% in six of the past eight seasons.
The conversion rate in the first round of the playoffs was 24.9%. That's up from 20.6% for the entirety of last year's postseason. Again, this is a multiyear trend: After having only one Stanley Cup postseason with a power play conversion rate above 20% in a 36-season span (1983-2020), the NHL has had a conversion rate higher than 20% in five straight postseasons.
The notion that the playoffs are a completely different sport than the regular season is hard to shake. But the numbers so far indicate that the regular-season goals bonanza has, for the time being, bled over to the postseason.
Mikko Rantanen was worth the money
All future mic-drop performances by a player against his former team will be judged against what Rantanen did to eliminate the Avalanche in the first round.
He had 11 points in the last three games of the series, two of them victories for his Stars. Martin Necas, his frugal replacement in Colorado via a trade with Carolina, had four points in that span and none in Game 7.
Rantanen is the first player in NHL history -- regular season or playoffs -- to record four-point periods in back-to-back games. He's the first player with 10 or more points in Games 5-7 in a series. He's the first player to record a hat trick in the third period of a Game 7 and the first player to record a hat trick against his former team in a Game 7.
He's in playoff beast mode. He's a postseason MVP for Dallas. And he's the kind of player that, quite frankly, the Avalanche could have used in this series.
Whether Rantanen's agent priced him out of Colorado or the Avalanche simply made a "tough business decision" for more cap flexibility with the hope of replacing him in aggregate, it was Colorado's decision to trade Rantanen before free agency. If they don't ship him to Carolina, then he's on Nathan MacKinnon's wing in this series. Granted, some of the other moves Colorado made to better its roster at the trade deadline don't happen either, but Rantanen would still be in Colorado and wouldn't have been in Dallas -- and that changes everything.
The Hurricanes hopped on Rantanen when he became available in the hopes of signing him long term -- which didn't happen -- but also because of his reputation as a playoff stalwart. He had 101 points in 81 career playoff games entering this postseason. That included 25 points in 20 games when the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup in 2022.
Give Carolina credit: The Hurricanes identified and acquired two clutch playoff scorers over the past two seasons that live up to the hype in Rantanen and Jake Guentzel, who was easily the best thing about the Tampa Bay Lightning in their first-round loss to Florida. It's just that the Hurricanes couldn't hang on to either, and in Rantanen's case didn't even get to see him suit up in the playoffs.
The Hockey Gods gave us Mikko Rantanen against his former teammates in Colorado in the opening round, a player getting his "revenge" on a team that moved on from him. Will they give us Mikko Rantanen against his former teammates in Carolina in the final round, with a team getting its "revenge" on a team that moved on from them?
You never know with those Hockey Gods. They're cheeky like that.
The key to rallying in Game 7 is missing your second-leading scorer and top defenseman
Admittedly, it's a small sample size.
But the Stars rallied from a two-goal deficit in the third period of Game 7 to eventually eliminate the Avalanche without injured Jason Robertson (80 points) and Miro Heiskanen (25:10 per game in ice time), who both sat out the series.
Then the Winnipeg Jets rallied from a two-goal deficit in the third period of Game 7 to eventually eliminate the St. Louis Blues without injured Mark Scheifele (87 points), who sat out Games 6 and 7, and Josh Morrissey (24:23 per game in ice time), who played only four shifts in the first period of Game 7 before leaving because of a shoulder injury.
Clearly, not having two of your most important players in the most critical game of the season portends good things.
OK, I understand the counterargument: Perhaps with both of those players in the lineup, there might not have been the need for a Game 7. This is a bit like the "Pete DeBoer is 9-0 in Game 7s" lesson, one that ignores that he's also 7-15 in Game 6s and 5-7 with a chance to clinch in Game 6. It's results over process.
But I'd counter that counter with a little Ewing Theory. That was the philosophy popularized by former ESPN Page 2 pundit Bill Simmons that the teams on which Basketball Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing played -- Georgetown University and the New York Knicks -- would "inexplicably play better when Ewing was either injured or missing extended stretches because of foul trouble."
Now, Ewing Theory doesn't apply to every situation. Witness the New Jersey Devils meekly exiting the postseason in five games against Carolina without injured Jack Hughes. But it's not just about success or failure in a star player's absence. It's also an education about how individual players react in their absence. Witness Nico Hischier, who had two goals in his first 17 regular-season games and then had four goals in five playoff games without Jack Hughes (and Luke Hughes, for four games) against Carolina.
Without Heiskanen, who played the most minutes against Nathan MacKinnon's line back in January, the Stars relied on Cody Ceci and Esa Lindell to slow him in Game 7. MacKinnon had a goal, but that was it. Without Robertson, Mikko Rantanen stepped up with 11 points in the last three games of their series.
Without Scheifele, captain Adam Lowry skated more than 14 minutes with Kyle Connor and Alex Iafallo on the top line in Game 7, and they had a plus-21 advantage in shot attempts and combined for the double-overtime winner. Cole Perfetti scored three goals with Scheifele out, including two in Game 7.
"Him scoring in St. Louis was big. Then he gets two big ones tonight," coach Scott Arniel said of Perfetti. "That's the evolution you want. For a guy that doesn't have much experience this time of year, I like his response in a heavy, heavy series."
Without Morrissey, Winnipeg rolled with five defensemen. Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg played more than 44 minutes each, and Haydn Fleury had the game of his life with 33:02 in ice time.
"What a yeoman's effort by a defense. They had a different partner every shift. It was guys stepping up. That's what we needed," Arniel said.
Of course, getting their second-leading scorer and top defenseman back are really what they need. Maybe in Round 2 ...
The fourth time actually isn't the charm
There were reasons to expect that the Los Angeles Kings could eliminate the Edmonton Oilers in the first round, despite failing to do so for three straight postseasons.
The Oilers were wildly inconsistent defensively this season in front of the goaltending battery of "hopes" and "prayers," and were missing key defenseman Mattias Ekholm. Edmonton's hockey demigods Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl had both sat out games near the end of the regular season because of injury.
The Kings themselves seemed primed to shut them down, with the best regular-season goals-against average (2.48) and goaltender (Vezina Trophy finalist Darcy Kuemper) that they've brought to the table with the Oilers sitting across from them. The margin between these teams had been razor thin: Since 2023, 10 of the 12 playoff meetings were decided by a one-goal margin or saw the game-winning goal scored in the third period.
But the reason so many people believed the Kings would defeat Edmonton -- and 16 of the 26 ESPN pundits did! -- is because the fourth time had to be the charm. How could virtually the same teams play in four straight postseasons and have one team win every time?
Well, history tells us that's how these things go, actually. Since 1968 (a.k.a. the "expansion era"), there has been only one other stretch in which the same two teams faced each other in the opening round for four straight seasons: Montreal faced Boston from 1984 to 1987 -- and won every time.
But hey, fourth time's the charm! Ask the Buffalo Bills, who played the Kansas City Chiefs four times in five postseasons and ... lost every time. Now imagine that instead of one Patrick Mahomes there are two of him, and that's what the Kings faced against the Oilers in perennial MVP candidates Draisaitl and McDavid.
It doesn't help when, after a promising start with two wins at home, the Kings embarked on a series of self-owns punctuated by the worst coaching performance in the first round by Jim Hiller. His coach's challenge in Game 3 handed the win to Edmonton, giving the Oilers a power play for delay of game after tying it 4-4. His decisions to sit on leads, his refusal to utilize his depth players ... it was a defeatist approach against a team that preys on weakness.
But hey, given the current playoff format, there's always next year. This time with a new general manager, as this latest playoff dud cost Rob Blake his job in L.A.
Super Mega Lines rule
The key to winning the Stanley Cup is to have contributions from throughout the lineup. Depth can be the decider between hoisting the chalice or getting crushed under the weight of playoff pressure.
All that said: It absolutely rocks when teams decide to load up with three ridiculously talented players to form a Super Mega Line.
The Vegas Golden Knights have one with Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and William Karlsson. Coach Bruce Cassidy deployed them after winger Pavel Dorofeyev missed Game 6 with an injury, sending out his trio of defensive aces to handle Kirill Kaprizov's line, and watched them slow down and outscore the Wild's best offensive unit in the elimination game.
"Everyone stepped up at different parts of the series and found ways to contribute," Eichel said. "That's how you win this time of year."
In limited minutes, the Golden Knights trio had a 67.7% expected goals percentage.
Stone and Eichel started to come alive late in the Minnesota series, with points in each of the last three games, all Vegas wins. Maybe Cassidy keeps them with Karlsson to take on either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Maybe they'll have to take on both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers are no stranger to Super Mega Lines themselves.
Regular-season awards darlings do not portend playoff success
When I'm talking about regular-season awards, I'm not talking about the Presidents' Trophy, which as we all know is actually cursed. Only eight teams that finished first overall in the NHL since 1986 have gone on to win the Stanley Cup. The last time that happened was Chicago in 2013. Since then, and since the NHL moved to a wild-card playoff format, no team that finished first overall has even played in the Stanley Cup Final, let alone won it, with two teams having lost in the opening round.
Ticktock, Winnipeg.
No, I'm talking about NHL individual awards. Take Cale Makar, the odds-on favorite to win the Norris Trophy this season for the second time in his career. The player who 71.7% of his peers said was the best overall defenseman in the NHL and earned a Ted Lindsay nomination.
Where was that guy in the first round?
The scoresheet said Makar had five points in seven games. Three of those points came in the Avs' 7-4 Game 6 victory at home. He also had assists in the first two games of the series. But he went scoreless in four games against Dallas, including a meek Game 7 performance in which he was a minus-1, took a third-period tripping penalty and had only one shot on goal.
Dallas did something similar last postseason, as Makar went scoreless in three of their six games and had one assist and two shots in Colorado's Game 6 loss.
"I've got to be a lot better," Makar said before Game 6. "I think there's been glimpses where I've been pretty good. There's a lot of things I can do a lot better."
Something was going on with Makar in that series.
Something's been going on with Connor Hellebuyck for three series.
Look, he was solid in the third period and the two overtimes in Game 7 against St. Louis, balancing out two iffy goals he gave up earlier in the game. But there's not a Game 7 without Connor Hellebuyck.
That's not meant to be a compliment. If he's anything better than a shooter tutor in any of those three games in St. Louis, then the Jets don't need Game 7 to move on. But he wasn't. He was terrible. He was pulled three times, and ended with a .758 save percentage and a 7.24 goals-against average on the road. In the past 40 years of Stanley Cup playoff hockey, that's the worst save percentage by any goalie on the road, with a minimum of three road games and 50 shots faced.
Over the past three postseasons, Hellebuyck is 1-7 with an .838 save percentage and a 5.19 goals-against average on the road.
Look, I'm happy for Hellebuyck. This was a nightmare round for him, and now he gets a chance at reputation mending against Dallas, along with a chance to reestablish his claim on the Team USA Olympic crease by outdueling Jake Oettinger, who is very much ready to claim it himself.
But along with that, his Game 7 sigh-of-relief win means that we won't have to suffer through the supreme awkwardness of a goalie who helped cost his team a first-round playoff series for the third season winning the NHL's award for best goaltender for the second year in a row -- and potentially also being named its most valuable player.
The Capitals' front office is just showing off now
Look at the top 10 scorers for the Washington Capitals after the first round against the Montreal Canadiens.
Alex Ovechkin is there, the Russian Machine who had four goals in five games
Tom Wilson was there, with five points in five games to go along with a wrestling match on the Capitals bench with Josh Anderson, an instant classic crying meme and a hit on Alexandre Carrier that's still echoing through Montreal
Connor McMichael also had five points in five games and skated to a plus-5.
That's where the list of homegrown Caps ends.
Dylan Strome (nine points) was a castoff from the Chicago Blackhawks. Anthony Beauvillier, who had five points, is on his sixth team in three seasons, having been acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the deadline. Brandon Duhaime was a free-agent signing and given a career high of 13:21 in average ice time.
Jakob Chychrun and Pierre-Luc Dubois were "buy-low" trade acquisitions last offseason, with Dubois' appeal at nearly toxic levels due to his contract and his crashing out in Los Angeles. Andrew Mangiapane was another trade addition. Trevor van Riemsdyk was a free-agent pickup in 2020 who blossomed in Washington.
I've written before about Washington's stunning retool around Ovechkin, the deftness of the front office and the way the organization develops and enhances talent. It's been on display so far in the playoffs. Frankly, it's underappreciated.
The Capitals are significant underdogs against Carolina. These two teams are way more evenly matched than the odds suggest, with Washington having a significant advantage in having home ice.
"We just know the ins and outs of a lot of their systems because we play the same thing," Capitals coach Spencer Carbery said. "It just becomes two teams [deciding] who can do it better and who can do it more consistently for a long period of time."
Continue to underestimate the Capitals at your own peril, Eastern Conference. They've got depth, chemistry, goaltending and, if all else fails, the greatest goal scorer in NHL history on the power play.