Heading into the Stanley Cup playoffs, nothing gives a team more confidence than having a goaltender who is playing at the top of his game. Every player and coach knows they won't be making a deep postseason run if the guy between the pipes isn't locked in.
But goaltending can be hard to predict. There are all sorts of factors that can affect whether a goalie is on his game or not, including (but not limited to) team defense, luck, matchups, special teams and on and on. So how can we tell whether the current crop of playoff goalies will be up to the task?
Last year, the two hottest goalies after March 1 ended up in the Stanley Cup finals. Matt Murray and Martin Jones had the third- and sixth-best save percentages over the final month-and-a-half of the season. In the same time span in 2015, Corey Crawford had second-best save percentage in the league and went on to raise the Cup.
Which goalies should have their clubs flying high and which should be concerned? Let's have a look:
Hot
Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets
Save percentage since March 1: .962
Bob is back. The 2012-13 Vezina Trophy winner has gone through ups and downs since winning the award for the league's best netminder, but under John Tortorella, Bobrovsky has found himself again and currently leads the NHL in save percentage. He also enters the playoffs as the hottest goalie in the league.
Blue Jacket fans might be concerned about his .890 career playoff save percentage, but predicting his performance based on past playoff appearances is challenging because his sample of postseason play is so small. We should put much more stock in his recent play than his nine postseason starts, the last of which came three years ago.
Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues
Save percentage since March 1: .955
Allen had only managed a .905 save percentage from October to February, and there were questions about whether he would still be between the pipes by the end of the season. But it appears the Blues' defensive play under new head coach Mike Yeo helped Allen turn his season around.
According to the analytics website Corsica Hockey, St. Louis has allowed the second-fewest scoring chances per 60 minutes in the NHL since March 1. So despite some struggles earlier in the year and mediocre performances in Allen's previous playoff starts, the Blues are on solid ground defensively and in net.
Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens
Save percentage since March 1: .941
In 2016, the Canadiens saw what life without Price is like, and it wasn't pretty. After Price was lost for the season with an injury, his team sunk to the bottom of the Atlantic Division. This season, Montreal's franchise goalie picked up where he left off in 2014-15, ranking third in the NHL in save percentage and leading the Habs to a division title.
In his past two appearances in the playoffs, Price has smashed any criticisms about his postseason play by putting up a .919 save percentage and quality starts (save percentage over .915 or fewer than two goals allowed) in 15 of 24 games (62.5 percent). He might feel even more secure in goal than in the past with Shea Weber guarding the front of the net and Claude Julien behind the bench.
Jonathan Bernier, Anaheim Ducks
Save percentage since March 1: .937
The Ducks have two competent goalies, but Bernier has been blazing hot lately and been given the majority of games over John Gibson in March. Over Bernier's 31 starts, the former King and Maple Leaf has been one of the league's most reliable goalies, posting quality starts in 61.3 percent of his games this year, the fourth highest in the NHL among netminders with more than 30 starts.
Gibson has a slightly higher overall save percentage at .921, but only a 55.3 quality start percentage and .914 even-strength save percentage since the beginning of March. So it would make sense for head coach Randy Carlyle to start the playoffs with Bernier and turn back to Gibson if needed.
Frederik Andersen, Toronto Maple Leafs
Save percentage since March 1: .936
When the Leafs acquired Andersen from the Ducks, the move was a little head-scratching because Toronto was thought to be one or two years from being a legitimate contender. Well, the young guns and head coach Mike Babcock had different plans, and Andersen's play down the stretch has been key to landing a playoff position. Toronto will need its netminder to stay hot in order to go deep in the postseason, with the Leafs giving up the third-most 5-on-5 shots against per 60 minutes.
Brian Elliott, Calgary Flames
Save percentage since March 1: .932
A tremendously slow start to the season gave the impression that Elliott's success in St. Louis may have been a product of Ken Hitchcock's defensive mindset, but the veteran goalie has come back strong for the Flames and secured his No. 1 spot heading into the playoffs. Redemption has become a familiar feeling for the 31-year-old netminder. After four nightmarish trips to the playoffs, he finally pulled out a gem last year, stopping 503 of 546 shots (.921 save percentage) in 18 games.
Warm
Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators
Save percentage since March 1: .930
After a rough 2015-16 season, it appeared Rinne's run as Nashville's franchise goalie was in jeopardy, but he has bounced back with a solid season that has been highlighted by a terrific March. However, concerns about Rinne still remain. Over his past 20 playoff starts, the Finnish goalie only has a .907 save percentage, and he has only one career playoff season (out of five) with an above-league average save percentage. Nashville should give its veteran stopper every opportunity to succeed as the Predators sport arguably the NHL's best blue line.
Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks
Save percentage since March 1: .929
Consistency has come to define Crawford's game. Over the past five seasons, he has posted save percentages between .917 and .926 and has quality starts in 61.7 percent of his 81 career playoff starts. While their goaltender has been his usual self, the Blackhawks have been hot, going 11-4-2 since the start of March. They've passed the struggling Minnesota Wild and emerged as the favorite to come out of the West.
Cam Talbot, Edmonton Oilers
Save percentage since March 1: .923
Edmonton's decision to buy into Talbot's small sample success as Henrik Lundqvist's backup has paid off, as the former Ranger has a .919 save percentage in two seasons as the Oilers' starter. With a 60.0 quality start percentage over 70 starts this year, he has been one of the league's most valuable goalies.
With a career-high of just 34 starts before joining the Oilers, his workload might be an issue, as could Edmonton's high-pace game. Talbot backstops a club that gives up the seventh-most scoring chances in the league, according to the analytics website Corsica Hockey.
Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins
Save percentage since March 1: .914
What an incredible year-and-a-half it has been for Murray. Not only did he emerge from the AHL to leading the Penguins to a Stanley Cup, but he followed up the magical ride with a .923 save percentage in 45 starts this year. Adding to Murray's excellence is the fact that Pittsburgh's defense has been dinged up, which has likely played a role in the Pens giving up the seventh-most even-strength shots on goal per 60 minutes this season.
Craig Anderson, Ottawa Senators
Save percentage since March 1: .913
The Senators wouldn't be anywhere close to the playoffs if not for Anderson's performance. His incredible .938 even-strength save percentage has covered up for Ottawa's offensive struggles. The Senators rank 22nd in the NHL in 5-on-5 goal scoring rate and 17th in shots on goal per 60 minutes. The ageless Anderson, 35, has been dominant in 27 postseason chances, giving his team a quality start in two of every three playoff starts.
Cold
Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins
Save percentage since March 1: .908
Rask has held strong over the final month-plus of the season to give the B's a chance to return to the postseason, but the bigger picture should have Boston fans wondering if their goalie is still among the league's best. Since winning the Vezina Trophy in 2013-14, Rask's 5-on-5 save percentage has declined each year. This season, he has been underwhelming at even strength with a .916 mark, which ranks 23rd among netminders with more than 40 starts.
Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
Save percentage since March 1: .904
It might be time to ask: Should the Rangers be concerned about their future Hall of Fame goalie? For the first time in his career, Lundqvist has a save percentage below league average. In the past, slumps were simply a blip on the radar, but this year Henrik the Great hasn't gotten on track, which is enough to wonder whether he can carry the Blueshirts in the playoffs as he has in the past.
Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals
Save percentage since March 1: .905
Although Holtby hasn't quite been himself lately, he has a case to be in the conversation with Price as the best goalie in the NHL. He has the highest save percentage in the NHL over the past three seasons and has given the Capitals excellent goaltending in the past two postseasons with 19 quality starts in 25 games. So Holtby's recent stretch shouldn't worry Caps fans.
Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild
Save percentage since March 1: .894
Since joining the Wild in 2014-15, Dubnyk has become an elite netminder. Hockey Reference estimates the former Oilers draft pick has been responsible for the second-most standings points for his team in the league since joining Minnesota. He has struggled more over the past month than at any other time since joining the Wild, however, and his 5-on-5 save percentage has been steadily declining. Minnesota's strong defensive game could help Dubnyk get back on track come playoff time. The Wild are giving up the fewest scoring chances per 60 minutes by Corsica Hockey metrics.
Martin Jones, San Jose Sharks
Save percentage since March 1: .893
Was Jones' run to the Stanley Cup finals in 2016 a product of small sample size, or is he a top-notch goalie going through a rough patch? It's too soon to have that answer, but the Sharks have their just-in-case goalie, backup Aaron Dell, who has a .930 save percentage in 16 starts. With key players like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau likely making one last run at a Cup, San Jose might be quick to pull Jones if he struggles early on.
Here's a rundown of how every playoff goalie has performed -- this season, in previous playoff appearances, and in the past month.