The NHL restarts its season with a first-of-its-kind, 24-team postseason tournament Saturday. The field has expanded to 12 teams per conference, and the schedule includes games starting as early as noon ET most days, running through the 10:30 p.m. ET window.
Yes, it's hockey all day, and we're just as excited about this March Madness-style event as you are.
But before the proverbial fur starts flying, let's examine some of the key questions: Which qualification round matchups are surefire upsets? Which will be the most exciting to watch? Who are our early picks for Conn Smythe as playoff MVP? And what are the X factors that will play an outsized role?
We answer all of those questions and many more here.
More: Check out the full NHL postseason schedule here.
What's your surefire qualification round upset pick?
Emily Kaplan, national NHL reporter: Winnipeg Jets over Calgary Flames. Something was amiss this season in Calgary, and I'm not confident it's fixed. But really, this is about my support for Winnipeg. The Jets' shaky defense can be overcome by Connor Hellebuyck, the most reliable goalie in the NHL this season. There's depth and veteran firepower on offense, including almost all of the forwards who guided this team to the Western Conference finals two years ago. The Jets are my trendy sleeper pick.
Greg Wyshynski, senior NHL writer: Arizona Coyotes over Nashville Predators. It's my only upset of the qualification round, which I think could be very chalky. The Coyotes are the kind of defensive team that I like in a short series, especially one with this many variables. I'm putting a lot of faith in Taylor Hall and a rejuvenated Phil Kessel to kickstart an offense that once again struggled to score (27th in 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the regular season). On paper, the Predators are the better team, to be clear, but give me the Coyotes in this matchup.
Vince Masi, ESPN Stats & Information: Columbus Blue Jackets over Toronto Maple Leafs. The high-powered Maple Leafs offense with a shady defense goes up against the Blue Jackets, who struggle to score but have played well defensively. I'll take the Blue Jackets getting some reinforcements back as the one thing that pushes the edge in their favor. Columbus having the ability to send out Seth Jones and Zach Werenski on the power play could boost its special teams in a shortened series and that could even out Toronto's prowess on its own power play.
Ben Arledge, NHL editor: New York Rangers over Carolina Hurricanes. That New York defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the Rangers were 4-0 against Carolina this season while scoring more than four goals per game in those contests. A Hart Trophy finalist in Artemi Panarin headlines a better-than-you-think offense (3.33 goals per game, third in the NHL), and whoever gets the nod in net is probably a better option than the Hurricanes' goaltending duo.
Sach Chandan, fantasy NHL editor: Florida Panthers over New York Islanders. Let's get the obvious out of the way: The Panthers looked awful in their tune-up against the Lightning on Wednesday. The Islanders are a formidable defense, but if the Panthers were to upset them, here's how it would happen. The Panthers have a top-10 power play, and if they can get a lead early, they are the best in the league at shutting the door, with a .963 win percentage when leading after two periods, and 87 third-period goals. The Panthers expect to get their top defense pairing of Aaron Ekblad and Mackenzie Weegar back in time for their matchup. The defense did Sergei Bobrovsky no favors against the Lightning, so any improvement will go a long way.
The series I'm most excited to watch is _______.
Kaplan: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Edmonton Oilers. This is the marquee qualification-round matchup in the West. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl vs. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews; the new wave versus the old guard. Given the makeup of both teams -- and uncertainty in net -- I'm expecting like 10 goals per game. Should be a blast.
Wyshynski: Calgary Flames vs. Winnipeg Jets. Remember that scene in "Infinity War" when Doctor Strange is seeing all possible outcomes of The Avengers' battle with Thanos? That's me trying to get a handle on how this series could play out. Firewagon offensive track meet? Goalie duel, assuming Cam Talbot can hold up his end of the bargain? Contentious, throwback physical hockey in an all-Canadian series? My only lament is that the games won't be played in front of the "white out" in Winnipeg and Calgary's "C of Red."
Masi: New York Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes. According to Evolving Hockey, the Hurricanes were third in even-strength goals per 60 minutes (3.09) and the Rangers were eighth (2.80) since the All-Star break. In that same span, the Rangers had the fourth-best power-play conversion rate (26.2%) and the Hurricanes were fifth (25.5%). Watching Hart Trophy finalist Artemi Panarin work the power play will be exciting. How both teams handle their respective goaltending rotations will be a storyline to watch as well.
Arledge: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Columbus Blue Jackets. Toronto's high-octane forward group can score with the best of them, but the defense continues to be a concern. And if you counted out Columbus after it lost Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky during the offseason, you might want to rethink that choice; the Jackets return Jones, Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand and others who dealt with injuries, and let's not forget that they know how to play spoiler. Just ask Tampa Bay.
Chandan: Vancouver Canucks vs. Minnesota Wild. Based on regular-season numbers, I'm going with the Canucks and Wild. They are surprisingly the combination of teams with the highest amount of total goals per game (for and against), at 6.4 and 6.3 respectively. Additionally, both of these teams have top-10 power plays and bottom-half penalty kills, increasing the scoring chances. Finally, it's exciting to see a team of rising stars in the Canucks vs. a veteran squad benefiting from rest in the Wild.
Way-too-early Conn Smythe pick:
Kaplan: Jake Guentzel, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens are my Stanley Cup pick, and I see Guentzel -- who was on a tear before he underwent shoulder surgery on New Year's Eve -- as the top goal scorer in this tournament. Riding shotgun on Sidney Crosby's line is a great place to be, and Guentzel looked super comfortable in Pittsburgh's exhibition against Philly, his first game action in seven months.
Wyshynski: Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning. As I mentioned in our betting guide, the Lightning winning the Stanley Cup would mean several strong candidates would have a shot at the Conn Smythe. But remember: It's voted on by the media. The same media that have celebrated Hedman -- who, incidentally, is a great interview -- with four straight Norris Trophy nominations. If he's healthy, if he's got the numbers and Tampa hoists the Cup, it would be no surprise to see him named playoff MVP.
Masi: Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights. Stone was the only player to average over one assist per game since the All-Star break, and is always on people's lists as one of the league's best all-around players. Last season, Stone put up 12 points in the seven-game series loss to the Sharks, which was the most by any player in any series during the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs. If the Golden Knights win their first Stanley Cup, it will be because of Stone.
Arledge: Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts are my Cup pick, and thanks to numerous scorers on the team, the two-months-early Conn Smythe dart throw easily lands on their 26-year-old, reigning Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender. Vasy's 2019-20 regular-season numbers were a rung below those of the past two, but he has the talent and experience to stand on his head for Tampa Bay right through until October.
Chandan: Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning. Like Ben, I also picked the Lightning to win the Cup, but I'm going to go with an elite offensive player instead. Kucherov has been a point-per-game player during his playoff career, despite the dud last year against the Blue Jackets. Five of the past six Conn Smythe Trophy winners have been forwards, and if the Lightning were to win the Cup, Kucherov would be the most likely offensive catalyst.
Which player will level up this postseason?
Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche. Did I just pick a guy who had 93 points in 69 games, and is just two years removed from being the Hart runner-up, to "level up" this postseason? You bet I did. MacKinnon still doesn't get the elite respect he deserves, and I think this tournament -- and a deep Avs run -- will mean a true superstar turn for the 24-year-old. If you watch Colorado, you know MacKinnon can totally take over a game, and I'm expecting a lot of that this summer. Time to start mentioning MacKinnon with Crosby and McDavid, period.
Wyshynski: Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Carolina Hurricanes. He's more than just lacrosse goals, people! The NHL sophomore scorer had 61 points in 68 games this season, including 16 points in his past 17 games before the pause. His line with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen could win a series on its own (and might have to).
Masi: Travis Konecny, RW, Philadelphia Flyers. He was already leveling up during the regular season, posting a career-high 61 points in 66 games. Konecny put up 23 points on the power play this season, after totaling only 15 over his first three seasons combined.
Arledge: Ryan Johansen, C, Nashville Predators. The last time he scored more than 20 goals in a season was 2014-15 with Columbus, though he does have many 60-plus-point seasons during his time in Nashville. He will be 28 when the puck drops (Happy birthday, Ryan!), so it's time for the Preds' No. 1 center to step up in his prime and play a bigger part. He scored five goals in 13 playoff contests two seasons ago, but I think Johansen could blow past that type of contribution this summer/fall.
Chandan: Miro Heiskanen, D, Dallas Stars. I'm picking Heiskanen after the 20-year-old Stars defenseman had the best season of his career, was Dallas' third-leading scorer behind Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, and is their best defensive defenseman as well. Heiskanen pulled the highest minute total of his career, while playing high-leverage minutes at both ends of the rink. Expect him to lead the playoffs in minutes played if the Stars go far.
Which deadline acquisition will have the biggest impact?
Kaplan: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C, New York Islanders. New York might have stifling defense, but the Isles are one of four teams in this tournament who averaged less than 2.8 goals per game. (A sputtering offense caused them to get swept in last year's second round). Pageau had only seven games to acclimate before the pause, but he shores up the center depth. If he can ride his 17.8% shooting percentage he had in 60 games in Ottawa to begin the season, New York is in luck.
Wyshynski: Ilya Kovalchuk, LW, Washington Capitals. This might be residual nostalgia from watching Kovy carry the Devils through three rounds of the playoffs back in 2012, but having him on this very good Capitals team (and even better, their power play) could be a boon for the veteran. And frankly, every image we've seen of him during the season pause has been him doing some ridiculous workout with UFC trainers or doing squats while weighed down by his children.
Masi: Blake Coleman, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning. It's never bad to add a top-six forward who scored 21 goals for a terrible Devils team and slide him on your third line. Oh by the way, he was a top-10 forward in expected goals against per 60 minutes at even strength this season, according to Evolving Hockey. Coleman also is among the better penalty killers in the game and should help a unit that gave up five power-play goals in 10 chances in their sweep at the hands of the Blue Jackets last season.
Arledge: Conor Sheary, W, Pittsburgh Penguins. Sheary leaves Buffalo, comes back to Pittsburgh and is gifted a spot on the top line with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel? Too good to be true for the fifth-year winger. He already buried one in the Pens' exhibition warmup, and it will be far from his last tally of the postseason.
Chandan: Tyler Ennis, LW, Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers traded for both Ennis and Andreas Athanasiou at the deadline to make use of their speed on the second line alongside Leon Draisaitl, and so far Ennis has performed better. Recently, Ennis played with Draisaitl and Kailer Yamamoto during the exhibition game against the Flames on Wednesday, and is in position to be the most impactful of Edmonton's acquisitions.
My favorite storyline heading into the postseason is _________.
Kaplan: Of course, I'm all about the hockey, but I'm also obsessed with the adjacent content; specifically, the NHL loosening its dress code and allowing players to wear what they want to the arena (a.k.a. the NBA's policy). So far, the Auston Matthews-led Maple Leafs are by far the trendiest, Andre Burakovsky promises a big shoe game, and bucket hats are big, but most teams are arriving at the arena looking like they're about to golf, or pose for a LinkedIn photo. Looking forward to seeing how this evolves when actual games start.
Wyshynski: Will the Stanley Cup champion match the surrealness of the tournament? If the NHL can pull this off -- and strong emphasis remains on "if" -- then the Stanley Cup champion will have been crowned after a five-round, 24-team tournament played inside of empty arenas located in bubbles. That's surreal enough, but imagine if these are the circumstances that lead to the first Maple Leafs' Stanley Cup since 1967? Or the first Flyers' Cup since 1975? Or the first Cup period for the Canucks, Wild, Predators, Panthers, Coyotes, Jets or Blue Jackets? (Or the Golden Knights, I guess, even though we really shouldn't be surprised if they win it all.)
Masi: Re-seeding after each round. The NHL should not have eliminated this format to begin with. The fact that the Presidents' Trophy-winning Bruins could be a 4-seed and play the Penguins in the round of 16 is part of the intrigue of a re-seeded tournament. Maybe a double-digit seed wins its qualifying round series and then gets a favorable matchup in the round of 16. It's a unique time, and it's one thing the NHL surely got right with the restart format.
Arledge: The goalie battles! Will the Rangers give Henrik Lundqvist some postseason action, or is it Igor Shesterkin's net? Does Marc-Andre Fleury own the Golden Knights' crease, or is trade acquisition Robin Lehner in for some playoff action? Pekka Rinne carried the Predators to the final just three years ago, but is it Juuse Saros' time? More than a dozen teams have difficult choices to make.
Chandan: The rest time is the most fascinating thing for me. Normally, teams who have been fighting for seeding or playoff spots are beat up by the time we get to the playoffs. This season, each team got roughly four unexpected months off to heal lingering injuries, which is important for veteran teams like the Penguins and Wild, or for the Blue Jackets who return Seth Jones, once thought lost for the season due to an ankle injury.
Which goalie will carry his team further than expected?
Kaplan: Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals. Everyone expects Washington to go far, so maybe this isn't the best answer here. I just love Holtby's storyline this summer. The 30-year-old is coming off a career-worst season and he's a pending free agent who hasn't had any contract talks with management yet; this is probably his Washington swan song before the Caps turn to Ilya Samsonov next season. I think Holtby can lock in for two months, revert back to form, and maybe even go out on top -- which would make his free-agency drama even juicier.
Wyshynski: Jacob Markstrom, Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks were 27th in expected goals against at 5-on-5 (2.55). They're an inexperienced team that doesn't exactly possess the puck. Which is why Markstrom's strong season (11.8 goals saved above average in 43 games) is as much a reason as any that they're in this tournament. They'll need him again in the playoffs; and since he's playing for a contract, I expect he'll deliver.
Masi: Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Flyers have started 10 different goalies in a playoff game coming out of the 2005 lockout, most of any team. Why not go with the rookie to be the 11th? Hart had a .934 save percentage after Feb. 1, going 9-2-0 in that stretch. According to Evolving Hockey, he had the fifth-best even-strength save percentage relative to expectation of any goalie with at least 200 minutes in that time period as well. There will be a ton of pressure on a 21-year-old, but maybe he can channel his inner Matt Murray or Andrei Vasilevskiy and help the Flyers to an extended run to the Stanley Cup Final.
Arledge: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets. Chicago's Corey Crawford could potentially revert to his old playoff self, and either of the Rangers' options could hoist the Blueshirts onto their backs. But I'm going with Hellebuyck. The Vezina favorite? Real original. But despite a loaded offense on paper, the Jets were in the bottom half of the league in scoring this season, and Hellebuyck's .922 save percentage shows just how important he is to this Winnipeg team.
Chandan: Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo, Columbus Blue Jackets. When we left off, the Blue Jackets had a breakout pair of goalies who carried them through a rough run of injuries throughout their lineup. While it feels like cheating to pick two players, coach John Tortorella plans to continue to evaluate his goalie situation up until game time, and whoever gets the nod will be counted on to slow Toronto's potent attack.
Biggest X factor of the tournament:
Kaplan: Will teams tank in the qualifying round, knowing if they lose they have a 1-in-8 chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick in the draft? Ask anyone in the NHL and they'll say no way. That's just not hockey culture. It's still left up to chance, so might as well put your full effort in. But are you telling me that if, say, the Canadiens fall behind 0-2 in their series, they won't be thinking about the implications of a quick exit? It's a super interesting dynamic hovering over the tournament's first week.
Wyshynski: Mental health. Obviously with this tournament being played during the coronavirus pandemic, physical health is of paramount concern too. But the mental grind of the playoffs is going to include the extra grind of bubble life: stuck in a hotel, rooming by themselves, being kept away from family and friends and social settings outside of those presented to the team. And this could go on for two-plus months. Teams are cognizant of this, and will offer any help they can. But while the opening weeks might seem like an all-inclusive resort, it's a marathon.
Masi: David Pastrnak's extended layoff. He had to spend a total of 28 days in quarantine, some because of travel from Europe and some because of his admitted mistake of skating with local players in the Boston area. The Bruins getting a three-game round-robin "warm-up" should be the perfect tonic for him to get himself on the same page with linemates Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. That trio played the most minutes at even strength of any forward line on the 24 teams playing in the restart this year, so it might not take long for the 48-goal scorer to get the chemistry going.
Arledge: Steven Stamkos' health. As mentioned, I have Tampa Bay winning it all. The Lightning can't keep stalling out -- they have to get it done at some point. And while Stammer was a full participant in practice this week, he skipped the exhibition game as he nurses a lower-body injury. Is he 100 percent? It might not seem like a make-or-break ordeal for Tampa Bay with the likes of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point in the lineup, but Stamkos did score 74 goals for the Lightning over the past two seasons. His health is going to be central to the outcome of the entire tournament.
Chandan: Luck. With the first round being a short series, there's less time to recover from a loss. Granted, luck can be the X factor every year, but with the unusual circumstances and no home-ice advantage, I'm eager to see what happens with a few opportune bounces of the puck.