It's often said that the winner of the NHL's unrestricted free-agent frenzy is the team that stays away from bloated unrestricted free-agent bidding.
You know who would disagree with that? General manager Doug Armstrong of the St. Louis Blues. He signed center Tyler Bozak last summer. He signed winger Patrick Maroon. Both of them played integral roles in the Blues' march to their first Stanley Cup championship this spring.
Then again, the Blues also signed Chad Johnson to be part of their solution in goal. He lasted 10 games.
Hence, investment in free agency is an imperfect science, but there are logical approaches to it, such as in our tiered look at the unrestricted free-agent market.
It breaks down the unrestricted free agents into categories ranging from sure things to big gambles to players to avoid like they're marinated in toxic waste. We also list the players who won't cost much and can spackle over problems.
Here's a look at the key players hitting the market on July 1. We left out players who appear primed to sign with their old clubs (Petr Mrazek, Maroon) or players who are likely to either re-sign or retire (Justin Williams, Niklas Kronwall).
Note: Ages listed are as of June 26. Players are listed alphabetically within each tier.
Tier 1: The best bets
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age: 30 | 2018-19 cap hit: $7.425 million
Look, we know the last metric anyone should use to evaluate a goalie is wins. That established, Bobrovsky has 115 wins in the past three seasons, for a .605 winning percentage. That's phenomenal. He has a career .919 save percentage and 2.46 goals-against average in the regular season, and has started 61-plus games in each of the past three seasons. He answered any questions about his postseason valor with a .925 save percentage in 10 games this spring. The issue here is his age: There's no question he's worth a high average annual value (AAV) to solidify someone's crease, but would he be worth it when he hits his late 30s?
Matt Duchene, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age: 28 | 2018-19 cap hit: $6 million
The P.K. Subban trade would seem to indicate that Duchene-to-the-Predators, which has been speculated to the point of being willed into existence, is inching closer to reality. If it's Nashville, there are a slew of questions that need answers, from internal economics -- hello Matt, so long Kyle Turris? -- to how the state tax situation affects the contract. If it's not the Predators, then what does that salary look like? Has Kevin Hayes' $7.14 million and Jeff Skinner's $9 million in AAV set the bar that Duchene is going to clear? Or are the twins at Evolving Wild, which models potential contract figures, correct in projecting a $7.7 million cap hit on a seven-year term? If it's not the Predators, the courtship could include the Jackets (who can give him eight years), the Islanders and the Canadiens.
Jake Gardiner, D, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 28 | 2018-19 cap hit: $6 million
Potentially the belle of the free-agent ball among defensemen, given what the market looks like. Leafs GM Kyle Dubas has stated he'd like to keep Gardiner, but that it's difficult to pay that price when the Mitch Marner contract mystery lingers. Gardiner can get you 22 minutes per game and upward of 50 points. So the field is wide-open: The Leafs, Canadiens, Kings, Canucks, Panthers, Red Wings and Wild have all been linked to him. The bidding starts at $7 million AAV, but will climb.
Robin Lehner, G, New York Islanders
Age: 27 | 2018-19 cap hit: $1.5 million
He wants to return to the Islanders, and one assumes that will end up being what happens. But know this about Lehner: He's not a one-hit wonder. He had strong seasons before, just not behind a Barry Trotz system. Now that he has his life away from the rink sorted out, Lehner has found another level (and himself as a Vezina Trophy finalist, which helps that price tag).
Artemi Panarin, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age: 27 | 2018-19 cap hit: $6 million
The sky's the limit on what Panarin is going to make on the open market. Since 2015, he has the eighth-most points (320) in the NHL, ahead of Alex Ovechkin and John Tavares. Panarin will get north of $10 million annually even if it's a tax-friendly state, because the market is there for him -- EvolvingWild projects $10.5 million on a seven-year term. Everyone in hockey sort of expects it'll be the Panthers in the end, but he's talking with the New York teams and his agent reportedly was in contact with the Avalanche (who have ample cap space) as well. The best player available by leaps and bounds, and as close to a sure thing as there is.
Joe Pavelski, C, San Jose Sharks
Age: 34 | 2018-19 cap hit: $6 million
"Little Joe" is making the free-agent rounds while hoping the Sharks can scare up a competitive offer to keep him local. If not, the San Jose captain is going to have a ton of suitors looking to sign him. He potted 38 goals last season, and his intangibles -- leadership, postseason performances -- are what contenders crave. The Stars are after him, and Pavelski is also linked to the Lightning and the Blackhawks. Could the Wild try to bring the former Badger closer to Wisconsin? Bottom line: Pavelski is worth more than $7 million annually on the market. But the key here might be term.
Tier 2: The smart gambles
Brett Connolly, RW/LW, Washington Capitals
Age: 27 | 2018-19 cap hit: $1.5 million
Connolly is apparently trying to follow the same Washington-to-Edmonton path that Alex Chiasson took. His agent told Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now that Edmonton was a good fit, but that there was a market of six to eight teams after Connolly. A dependable bottom-six forward with a 58.16 goals-for percentage this season, he should double his cap hit but the term seems flexible.
Joonas Donskoi, RW, San Jose Sharks
Age: 27 | 2018-19 cap hit: $1.9 million
A casualty of the Sharks' salary-cap crunch, he's a shifty forward who has 14 goals in each of the past two seasons and usually plays to better possession metrics than his teammates. One of those players who could really benefit from a larger role on a different team.
Marcus Johansson, LW/RW, Boston Bruins
Age: 28 | 2018-19 cap hit: $4.58 million
The biggest revelation about Johansson this season was that his nickname is actually "JoJo" rather than "MoJo." I know, we were shocked too. He's a solid complementary offensive player who also can work on the power play. His playoff performance opened some eyes, perhaps even those of his current employer.
Anders Lee, LW, New York Islanders
Age: 28 | 2018-19 cap hit: $3.75 million
The Islanders, losing their captain to free agency? Didn't we just do this? We're not sure what photographs of Lee under NHL team bedsheets in his childhood exist, so we have to assume that the Islanders have a good shot at retaining Lee. But the 6-foot-3, 230-pound Minnesota native is going to draw a ton of interest for his 102 goals (!) in the past three seasons. Lee had an expected goals percentage of 64.29 last season, which is stellar. His price tag will easily be in the neighborhood, or above, that of Kevin Hayes' $7.14 million annually with the Flyers. The Blackhawks, Wild and others can afford it.
Gustav Nyquist, RW/LW, San Jose Sharks
Age: 28 | 2018-19 cap hit: $3.75 million
It's difficult to imagine the money and term working out in San Jose, so the Goose will be loose this July 1. Entering his ninth season, Nyquist is a consistent 20-goal scorer who would be the ideal wing man for, say, explosive young centers in places such as Vancouver or Edmonton, where the general manager knows a thing or two about him. But let's not discount the cap-space-rich Avalanche, either.
Semyon Varlamov, G, Colorado Avalanche
Age: 31 | 2018-19 cap hit: $5.9 million
His numbers took a tumble last season to a .909 save percentage as he lost his crease to Philipp Grubauer, but he has more than enough left to be a strong goalie getting the lion's share of the work. He's one year removed from a plus-11.99 goals saved above average season; the dip last season could actually make him a bargain.
Mats Zuccarello, RW, Dallas Stars
Age: 31 | 2018-19 cap hit: $4.5 million
Zuccarello is a player who creates instant offense no matter where you slot him in the lineup, and can give you 55-60 points in a good season. The question is how many of those seasons he has left, as he'll be 32 when the season starts. Is it worth it to go upward of $6 million annually over four seasons? In the first part of that deal, absolutely.
Tier 3: The boom-or-busts
Jordie Benn, D, Montreal Canadiens
Age: 31 | 2018-19 cap hit: $1.1 million
It's entirely possible that someone is going to take his career offensive year (22 points) and his defensive prowess (53.4 percent in shot attempt differential at 5-on-5) and add it up to a $4 million annual salary for what is, essentially, a really great third-pairing defenseman.
Ben Chiarot, D, Winnipeg Jets
Age: 28 | 2018-19 cap hit: $1.4 million
At 6-3 and about 220 pounds, Chiarot could be the beneficiary of some of that "heavy hockey is back!" hype from the postseason. He's not all that fleet of skate and can be a drag on possession, but has outkicked his coverage as a defenseman for the Jets, earning top-four minutes. Like Benn, he had a career offensive year (20 points) ahead of free agency. Weird how that keeps happening.
Alex Chiasson, RW, Edmonton Oilers
Age: 28 | 2018-19 cap hit: $650,000
He's coming off a 22-goal season with Edmonton, thanks in part to 5-on-5 ice time with Leon Draisaitl, which made Chiasson one of the season's biggest bargains, having signed on for peanuts after a professional tryout contract. The Oilers would like to retain him. He'll make more than peanuts now, and term will likely be the goal. But what do you pay someone after an anomalous season with a 17.2 shooting percentage?
Micheal Ferland, RW/LW, Carolina Hurricanes
Age: 27 | 2018-19 cap hit: $1.75 million
What gives us pause about Ferland, other than the suspicious spelling of his first name, is that he's one of those players whose output (17 goals, 23 assists in a middle-six role) was accentuated by his cap number; although, the difference in his numbers without the benefit of high-end offensive talent (Sebastian Aho or Teuvo Teravainen) than with them was stark. He'll no longer be a bargain after July 1, when Ferland could easily clear $4 million annually with term. Does that mean he'll be a bust? No. It just means that going from the 55th-highest cap hit among unrestricted free agents to that kind of salary gives us pause. That's all.
Tyler Myers, D, Winnipeg Jets
Age: 29 | 2018-19 cap hit: $5.5 million
There may not be a larger discrepancy on the free-agent market than what Myers will end up getting, as one of the only proven puck-moving defensemen on the market, and what he should end up getting based on his underlying numbers. Evolving Wild has his average annual value on a long-term deal at $6.06 million, and someone like Vancouver will probably eclipse that. But he's a liability on defense. Tyler Myers on your third pairing, playing 20 minutes per game with some power-play time? Fine. Tyler Myers cast in the role one assumes he'll be cast in based on the UFA money? This could be a contract someone ends up regretting (hint: neither Tyler Myers nor his agent).
Mike Smith, G, Calgary Flames
Age: 37 | 2018-19 cap hit: $5,666,667
There was a moment last season when it looked like we all owed Mike Smith an apology for dragging him. But in the end, he had an .898 save percentage and a minus-8.50 goals saved above average -- better than his horror show start, but not exactly what you'd call "good." He was better in the playoffs, to the tune of a .917 save percentage and one shutout. He'll garner attention from teams looking for a veteran in their goalie mix, with Carolina being a possibility.
Anton Stralman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Age: 32 | 2018-19 cap hit: $4.5 million
For years, Stralman was considered one of the NHL's most underrated blueliners, but his past three seasons show a small decline from his peak -- last season, due to injury, was his first in the negative shot attempt range since 2012. He's much more "boom" than "bust," but if it's $4.5 million and the term is three years, that might be one year too many.
Tier 4: The rickety investments
Derick Brassard, C, Colorado Avalanche
Age: 31 | 2018-19 cap hit: $5 million
Brassard had 14 goals and nine assists last season, skating to a minus-19 in 40 games. Here's the thing: Those stats were compiled with three teams, in the span of a single season. In fact, he has played for five teams in the past four years. There's probably always a market for a center who used to make plays. Just not anywhere near $5 million against the cap.
Carl Gunnarsson, D, St. Louis Blues
Age: 32 | 2018-19 cap hit: $2.9 million
We're listing Gunnarsson here because he has consistently been worse than his teammates at 5-on-5 shot attempts and was actually pushed out of the lineup during the Blues' Stanley Cup run. Yet there's probably someone out there willing to give him term in order to bring a "ring in the room." And hey, calling your overtime Stanley Cup Final game-winning goal while at the urinal with your coach deserves to add at least a million to your price tag, no?
Ryan Dzingel, LW/RW, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age: 27 | 2018-19 cap hit: $1.8 million
Like Ferland, Dzingel is a player whose offensive output (56 points, split between Ottawa and Columbus) was given extra gravitas because of his minuscule cap hit. He'll command upward of $4 million AAV on his next deal. Is he a 50-point-plus player going forward? We have our doubts.
Ron Hainsey, D, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 38 | 2018-19 cap hit: $3 million
Hainsey was demonstrably the Leafs' worst defenseman who played regularly, including a 48.54 expected goals percentage, and yet was a plus-30. Someone out there will hand him a new contract, but even on the third pairing, he's increasingly a liability.
Dion Phaneuf, D, Los Angeles Kings
Age: 34 | 2018-19 cap hit: $7 million
Flush with buyout money, Phaneuf should latch on with a team for a relatively small cap hit. But he had a 38.46 goals-for percentage at 5-on-5, while the Kings had an on-ice save percentage of .899 with him out there. He had six points in 67 games and was down to an average ice time of 15 minutes per game. Pass.
Corey Perry, RW, Anaheim Ducks
Age: 34 | 2018-19 cap hit: $8.625 million
Perry is going to be the next Brad Richards, in the sense that his buyout payout from the Ducks will allow him to sign a low cap-hit deal this season. There are those who believe that Perry is worth the risk, either because surgery will have repaired what was ailing him or because his intangibles are enough to take the plunge. Perhaps. Or perhaps he's the next in a long line of hard-hitting wingers who eventually lost the thread.
Wayne Simmonds, RW/LW, Nashville Predators
Age: 30 | 2018-19 cap hit: $3.975 million
Simmonds will likely find someone willing to give him term and around $5 million annually for his toughness and net-front presence. But he has had two straight seasons of statistical decline, and his one goal in 17 games for Nashville was atrocious.
Jason Spezza, C, Dallas Stars
Age: 36 | 2018-19 cap hit: $7.5 million
Nice veteran to have around your dressing room, but after two straight seasons of underwhelming play, one expects around 77 games, around eight goals and around 26 assists with a minus-12. And he just turned 36.
Tier 5: The spackle
Noel Acciari, C, Boston Bruins
Brian Boyle, C, Nashville Predators
Brian Elliott, G, Philadelphia Flyers
Deryk Engelland, D, Vegas Golden Knights
Valtteri Filppula, C, New York Islanders
Dan Girardi, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Ryan Hartman, LW/RW, Dallas Stars
Marcus Kruger, C, Chicago Blackhawks
Ben Lovejoy, D, Dallas Stars
Andrew MacDonald, D, Philadelphia Flyers
Jamie McGinn, LW/RW, Florida Panthers
Adam McQuaid, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
Marc Methot, D, Dallas Stars
Matt Moulson, LW, Buffalo Sabres
Alex Petrovic, D, Edmonton Oilers
Tobias Rieder, LW/RW, Edmonton Oilers
Joakim Ryan, D, San Jose Sharks
Cam Talbot, G, Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Tanev, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Colin Wilson, C/W, Colorado Avalanche