The ink has dried on the contracts. The courtship of John Tavares has concluded with his return to Toronto. The 2018 NHL free-agent frenzy ended as it began -- with some very wealthy people getting wealthier, general managers spending beyond logical means and fans stressing about the future.
So ... let's do it again in 2019, shall we?
Here's a way-too-early look at the 2019 NHL free-agent frenzy, placing 27 of the best available names into five tiered categories. As we've already seen with Drew Doughty, Logan Couture and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (to name a few), some players won't make it all the way to free agency. In fact, that's why Joe Pavelski of the San Jose Sharks, Marc-Andre Fleury of the Vegas Golden Knights, Ryan Ellis of the Nashville Predators and Erik Karlsson of ... well, wherever he ends up, aren't listed here, as we expect they'll sign extensions before reaching unrestricted free agency.
But for the rest of the players with expiring contracts after this season, we've calculated the probabilities on whether they'll be under contract on July 1, 2019, or on the market.
The elite
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Columbus Blue Jackets
Current cap hit: $7,425,000
Age at free agency: 30
This kind of goaltender rarely hits the open market: good for 65 starts, a save percentage among the best in the NHL and a two-time Vezina winner. If he makes it to July 1, he'll have no shortage of suitors looking to stabilize their goaltending spot with a legitimate All-Star talent who's still in his prime -- provided, of course, they excuse some rather putrid career playoff numbers (.891 save percentage) in comparison to his regular-season work.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 50 percent. There haven't been extension talks with the Blue Jackets, although that shouldn't cement that he's gone. If they were to move him before his contract expires, it could be to a team renting him, or it could be to a team seeking to sign him long term.
Max Pacioretty, LW, Montreal Canadiens
Current cap hit: $4,500,000
Age at free agency: 30
Since 2014, Pacioretty is 13th in the NHL in goals per game (0.39), with this number dragged down by a tumultuous 2017-18 that resulted in his notching just 17 goals. (Also keep in mind he's done this without any semblance of an elite center on the roster.) He's also 13th in even-strength goals in that span, with 84, tied with Jamie Benn and in 16 fewer games. Benn makes $9.5 million against the cap. Pacioretty does not. At least not yet.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 20 percent. According to Marc Antoine Godin of The Athletic, the Canadiens have informed Pacioretty that they will not offer him an extension and intend to trade him ASAP. Chances are whoever acquires him will do so with the intention of signing him long term, but we'll leave it at a 20 percent chance he ends up a rental and makes it to July 1.
Artemi Panarin, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
Current cap hit: $6,000,000
Age at free agency: 27
Panarin was a top-line talent with the Chicago Blackhawks when the Blue Jackets flipped Brandon Saad for him, but the question remained: Could he post the kinds of seasons he had in his first two years without Patrick Kane on his line? His answer: 27 goals, 55 assists and a career-best 82 points for the Jackets last season. He's the real deal.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 90 percent. Hey, the Blue Jackets shot their shot. And then they heard his agent say that Panarin loves everything about the franchise except "spending the next eight years in Columbus," which hurts slightly more than someone dumping grass killer in the middle of the Horseshoe while humming the Michigan fight song. The most likely scenario: The Jackets deal him as a rental this season before Panarin signs with whatever big, desirable city (New York, Miami ... Chicago?) he's got his sights on, for a rather large sum of money over seven seasons.
Tyler Seguin, C, Dallas Stars
Current cap hit: $5,750,000
Age at free agency: 27
Seguin ranks 14th in the league in points-per-game average over the past three seasons at 0.94, which is actually a smidge better than John Tavares (0.93), who you may have noticed was just handed $11 million per season. The young Stars star hit the 40-goal mark for the first time last season. Sure, he benefits from playing with Jamie Benn. Just as Jamie Benn benefits from playing with Tyler Seguin.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 65 percent. By all accounts, Seguin loves living in Dallas and likes the organization. His hitting the UFA market depends on two factors: his belief that there are greener pastures insofar as winning the Stanley Cup (again) during his career, and his desire to take part in the rose ceremony that Tavares just did as the belle of the free-agent ball. Or his agent Ian Pulver's desire, as it were. But signing long term with the Stars is very much a possibility.
Blake Wheeler, RW, Winnipeg Jets
Current cap hit: $5,600,000
Age at free agency: 32
One of the most unheralded players in the NHL, despite his 91-point season in 2017-18 for the Jets, Wheeler has 243 points in his past 245 games, ranking him fifth in the NHL in scoring since 2015. Ranking right ahead of him: Nikita Kucherov. Ranking right behind him: Jamie Benn. Again, an unheralded elite offensive force, and his leadership was put in the spotlight last season for Winnipeg after Mark Scheifele was injured.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 20 percent. Wheeler signed a six-year deal with Winnipeg beginning in 2013. He's played there since 2011, relocating with the Thrashers. He's seen lean times, and now he's seeing Laine times, so one assumes he stays ... unless the siren's song of playing back home in Minnesota proves too strong -- though he should ask Zach Parise about that.
Warts and all
Matt Duchene, C, Ottawa Senators
Current cap hit: $6,000,000
Age at free agency: 28
Eh, be careful what you wish for. Duchene voiced a desire not to take part in another rebuild, was traded to the Ottawa Senators from the Colorado Avalanche and finds himself in a smoldering dumpster fire of a franchise on and off the ice. But after a rough landing in Ottawa, he posted 34 points in 34 games and looked very much like what one expects a No. 1 center to look like. But the emotional fragility Duchene has shown in the past few years is hard to not factor in.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 95 percent. Whether he plays out the string before escaping Ottawa or gets traded as a rental, it's hard not to envision Duchene hitting the open market. Perhaps he ends up on Long Island, replacing the player he was drafted two spots behind in 2009?
Jordan Eberle, RW, New York Islanders
Current cap hit: $4,500,000
Age at free agency: 29
There's a lot to really like about Eberle. Outside of a dip in his final year in Edmonton, you can count on a points-per-game average between 0.73 and 0.81. He's played nearly the entire 82 games in five of the past six seasons. Rather than being a product of the talent he plays with, he enhances it. But when $6 million annually is a starting point for a player who hasn't broken 60 points in the past three seasons ...
Chances he'll hit free agency: 65 percent. Eberle would do well to remain with Mathew Barzal, and the Islanders will probably overcompensate him to ensure more talent isn't flowing out the doors. But there's also a chance that Eberle decides what John Tavares just did: That other teams are closer to a championship than the Islanders are.
Alexander Edler, D, Vancouver Canucks
Current cap hit: $5,000,000
Age at free agency: 33
Through all the ebbs and flows of the Canucks' successes and struggles, Edler is Edler. He had 34 points in 70 games last season, playing 24:17 per night. It was an uptick in scoring, but he's a consistent performer ... when he's healthy, which has been as much the story of his past three seasons as anything else.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 25 percent. His no-trade clause makes a rental play a bit specious, but honestly: He's the kind of player you'd like to have around a young team. Ultimately, though, it's Edler's call.
Jake Gardiner, D, Toronto Maple Leafs
Current cap hit: $4,050,000
Age at free agency: 28
Every NHL team has a Jake Gardiner. He does some things very, very well. He does some things moderately worse. He gets you 52 points in 82 games, playing more than 22 minutes per night. He posts a minus-5 in a Game 7 playoff loss and has the fury of a city aimed at him. But he does good work in his own zone and someone will undoubtedly compensate him for that.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 50 percent. One of the most desirable things about Gardiner currently is that he makes only $4 million and change against the cap. Blow that up, and with term, and perhaps the Leafs reconsider his place on a team whose financial landscape changed dramatically on July 1, 2018. That said, it's hard to imagine GM Kyle Dubas letting a player who seems to fit his analytic dogma slip away.
Tyler Myers, D, Winnipeg Jets
Current cap hit: $5,500,000
Age at free agency: 29
Myers had his best offensive season since 2011 with the Jets in 2017-18, with 36 points in 82 games while skating 21:26 per night. Emphasis on "82 games," as it was also the first time he hit that mark since winning the Calder Trophy in his 2009-10 rookie campaign. The previous season, Myers played 11 games.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 40 percent. There's been more smoke around Myers being traded than the Jets re-upping him, but if he's moved, one assumes it'll be to a team with designs on extending his deal before July 1.
Jeff Skinner, LW, Carolina Hurricanes
Current cap hit: $5,725,000
Age at free agency: 27
The winger is tied for 18th in goals-per-game average since 2015 (0.37) with players such as Patrice Bergeron, Jeff Carter, Taylor Hall and Aleksander Barkov. There's no doubt he can fill the net; the problem, as one scout at the NHL draft told me, is that he's still very much a one-dimensional player eight years after winning the Calder Trophy.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 70 percent. Another player one assumes would get signed by whoever trades for him, should those trade rumors come to pass, but a young player of his age and scoring prowess need look no further than James van Riemsdyk and Evander Kane to see the kinds of contracts that could be in his future.
The expensive downsides
Jay Bouwmeester, D, St. Louis Blues
Current cap hit: $5,400,000
Age at free agency: 36
Still good for around 22 minutes per night, but his best offensive seasons are behind him. From 2005 to 2014, he didn't miss a game. Since 2014, he's missed 68 of them, including 47 last season.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 30 percent. The Blues know what they have here, and Bouwmeester knows his next contract could be his last. Comfort, thy name is a short-term extension at a reduced cap number.
Niklas Kronwall, D, Detroit Red Wings
Current cap hit: $4,750,000
Age at free agency: 38
Pop quiz: How many points did Kronwall have last season for Detroit? It's a testament to how far off the radar the Red Wings have fallen that you probably have no idea that the answer is 27 in 79 games, rebounding from an injury-plagued 2016-17. It's also possible you thought Kronwall had retired, which is understandable as well.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 70 percent. This should be 100 percent given his age and the Red Wings' lot in life at the moment, but it's Ken Holland we're talking about here, so it's more than likely he ends up with a three-year deal and a full no-move clause.
Pekka Rinne, G, Nashville Predators
Current cap hit: $7,000,000
Age at free agency: 37
Pekka Rinne won the Vezina Trophy this year. Granted, your lingering memory of his campaign might be his unfathomable inability to perform on the road consistently in the Stanley Cup playoffs, including lasting just 10:31 in Game 7 against Winnipeg. But we're still talking about a goalie who posted a .927 save percentage in the regular season and remains one of the toughest, most durable goalies in the game even deep into his 30s.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 15 percent. This is a flat-out guess. Juuse Saros is being primed to take over the Nashville crease. Rinne is a franchise legend who should retire a Predator. But if he wants to keep playing, and making bank in the process, I'd say there's a 15 percent chance we get a "Mike Modano on the Red Wings" type of situation out of Pekka in 2019-20. I mean, the Flyers do still exist, right?
Jason Spezza, C, Dallas Stars
Current cap hit: $7,500,000
Age at free agency: 36
The man with the greatest giggle in hockey didn't have much to smile about in 2017-18 with just 26 points in 78 games, a thudding career offensive low for a guy two years removed from a 33-goal season. Can he rebound in his walk year?
Chances he'll hit free agency: 90 percent. Unless keeping Spezza around is a condition for signing Erik Karlsson to a long-term deal, one assumes both player and team will welcome a change -- unless he blows up the score sheet this season.
Justin Williams, RW, Carolina Hurricanes
Current cap hit: $4,500,000
Age at free agency: 37
The winger had 16 goals and 35 assists in his return to the Canes, following two seasons in Washington where he broke 20 goals and, despite his legacy, did not actually score in a Game 7.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 30 percent. One assumes Justin Williams does not return to Carolina to ever leave it again, but we'll note he signed his deal before Tom Dundon purchased the team.
The solid plays
Yanni Gourde, LW/C, Tampa Bay Lightning
Current cap hit: $1,000,000
Age at free agency: 27
A late bloomer with the Lightning who had nine points in 22 NHL games before breaking out with 25 goals and 39 points in 82 games last season. With $1 million as the starting point on salary, that sets the bar in an attractive place for his next deal.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 40 percent. The Erik Karlsson scenario makes all Lightning contract decisions for next season a little murky, but Gourde would do well to sign on for another tour with a franchise and coach that support him.
Anders Lee, C, New York Islanders
Current cap hit: $3,750,000
Age at free agency: 28
Please recall our earlier reference to Jeff Skinner scoring 0.37 goals per game and being in the company of some accomplished players. Also hitting that mark since 2015? None other than the 6-foot-3 Anders Lee, who has had 34 and 40 goals in his past two seasons. Granted, those were seasons spent with John Tavares, but the guy can find the back of the net.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 65 percent. Another player one could see the Islanders overcompensating to keep around, but there would certainly be a market for that kind of goal production when put into a top-line role.
Jakob Silfverberg, LW/RW, Anaheim Ducks
Current cap hit: $3,750,000
Age at free agency: 28
A versatile forward who looked poised for an offensive breakout after a promising 2016-17 (49 points) but regressed a bit back to 17 goals and 40 points last season. He's a positive possession player whose underlying numbers were strong even in a down year.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 75 percent. The Ducks are in a position where the roster needs some remaking in the near future, and Silfverberg is a trade asset with value. Perhaps ye olde deadline trade followed by free agency? Unless they view him as part of the long-term solution.
Wayne Simmonds, LW/RW, Philadelphia Flyers
Current cap hit: $3,975,000
Age at free agency: 30
A tremendous net-front presence and a physical force, Simmonds leads the Flyers in goals (87) since 2015 for a 0.37 goals-per-game average. That includes 40 of them scored on the power play.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 75 percent. The Flyers want to bring back Simmonds, but this is obviously the last great payday the winger is going to have. So with Claude Giroux on the left side, James van Riemsdyk signed and Isaac Ratcliffe on the way, would the Flyers break the bank for the natural left wing? Or is Simmonds destined to get paid elsewhere?
Anton Stralman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Current cap hit: $4,500,000
Age at free agency: 32
An absolute rock for the Lightning on defense, and at times the hipster pick for their true best defender, he gives you 22 minutes per night of flawless hockey. The perfect veteran partner for someone's young puck-moving blueliner ... or a continuing part of the foundation for the Lightning.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 50 percent. A lot of this depends on whether Tampa Bay ends up with Erik Karlsson on its blue line, because that's going to influence several decisions the Bolts make next summer. Either way, they might look to Stralman for some level of discount, which could be appealing to a veteran seeking to remain with a contender, or it could chase him to the market.
The risky investments
Adam McQuaid, D, Boston Bruins
Current cap hit: $2,750,000
Age at free agency: 32
The kind of physical, bottom-pairing defenseman teams typically overvalue in free agency.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 100 percent. One assumes age and fragility will spell the end of McQuaid's run with the Bruins, who have plenty of depth on the blue line.
Gustav Nyquist, RW, Detroit Red Wings
Current cap hit: $4,750,000
Age at free agency: 29
The Goose had a nice rebound effort in 2017-18 with 21 goals, but he managed only 19 assists, which was a career low. He's inconsistent and hasn't fulfilled the promise of his first two seasons in Detroit.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 80 percent. His no-trade clause makes a deadline deal no guarantee but seems to fit the "rental then UFA" model.
Eric Staal, C, Minnesota Wild
Current cap hit: $3,500,000
Age at free agency: 34
Staal's career renaissance with Minnesota is one of the NHL's best stories, as the center hit 42 goals last season. He's played full 82-game seasons over the past three as well.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 60 percent. Staal is in a good spot. He's also turning 34 and wasn't acquired by the current general manager, so his future is in question.
Semyon Varlamov, G, Colorado Avalanche
Current cap hit: $5,900,000
Age at free agency: 31
When healthy, the goaltender can post .920-plus save percentage seasons as he did in 2017-18, when he also had a plus-11.99 goals saved above replacement. Key phrase: "when healthy."
Chances he'll hit free agency: 100 percent. The Avalanche didn't acquire Philipp Grubauer to share the crease with Varly for more than one season.
Mats Zuccarello, RW, New York Rangers
Current cap hit: $4,500,000
Age at free agency: 31
Instant offense in a league that's shifted toward favoring players of his stature. But the money and term he could command as he hits the downside of his career might be a bit much.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 80 percent. A good soldier on the Rangers and a fan favorite, but the money would have to be favorable for them to keep him around as the team goes younger.
Derick Brassard, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
Current cap hit: $5,000,000
Age at free agency: 31
The center has had a couple of disappointing seasons after hovering around 60 points for the Rangers. His disappearing act in the Stanley Cup playoffs for Pittsburgh was especially disconcerting. But he's a talented player looking for the right fit.
Chances he'll hit free agency: 95 percent. The Penguins are allegedly trying to move him this summer. No matter what, it's hard to fathom Brassard won't test the market next summer, voluntarily or not.