Having reached the quarter mark of the 2017-18 season, it's time to review the summer's most notable free-agent signings for early indications of success.
Studying all the significant free-agent contracts signed since July 1, some have already paid dividends, while others are yet to work out. And, some of them are projected to achieve good value over the long term, while others are not.
Based on those two criteria, we can divide them into four categories:
Free agents who are off to strong starts and who are expected to continue to provide good value
Those off to promising starts, but who may regress in the long run
Those who are initially struggling, but who should eventually come around
Contracts whose risk is already becoming obvious
This assessment will only include the most considerable free-agent investments, and not short-term and/or low-cost signings. Specifically, the contracts must be for at least three years and carry a cap hit of at least $4.0 million per season for unrestricted free agents, and at least six years and $5.0 million for restricted free agents.
Strong signings
These include players who are off to strong starts, and who are projected to continue to provide strong value over the long term, even if they gradually fade from their current level of performance.
Evgenii Dadonov, F, Florida Panthers
The deal: Three years, $12 million
Averaging 20:01 minutes per night on Florida's top line with Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, Dadonov has scored 17 points in 20 games. That puts him on pace for 70 points, which is not completely unexpected, given the NHL translation of his KHL scoring totals last season of 69 points in 72 games:
In terms of shot-based metrics, Dadonov leads the team with a Corsi of plus-72, boosting Florida's share of shot attempts by the incredible margin of 46.0 percent to 57.2 when he's on the ice.
During the course of his three-year contract, Dadonov might regress to his previously established equivalent of 45-50 points per season, but even that would be a decent return on an annual cap hit of $4.0 million, assuming his shot-based metrics remain positive.
Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers
The deal: Eight years, $68 million
In 2016-17, Draisaitl scored 77 points in 82 games at age 21. According to Hockey Reference, only 11 players have scored more points in a single season at age 21 or younger since 2005-06. In almost every case, the same contract Draisaitl received would have been a worthwhile investment.
This season, Draisaitl is scoring at roughly the same pace, with 14 points in 16 games, and actually leads Connor McDavid and the rest of the Oilers with an average of 2.63 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick.
The only question is to what extent Draisaitl's impressive numbers are being boosted by his talented linemate. It's estimated that top players such as McDavid can boost a linemate's scoring by about 20 to 25 percent, and in 2016-17 Draisaitl's Corsi for percentage dropped from 53.85 percent with McDavid to 47.74 without him, according to Natural Stat Trick. If Draisaitl is actually more of a 60-point player with below-average shot-based metrics without McDavid, then this will become reclassified as a regrettable investment.
David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins
The deal: Six years, $40 million
With 70 points in 75 games at age 20 last season, Pastrnak is even more exclusive company than Draisaitl. Since 2005-06, only eight players have exceeded that mark at age 20 or earlier, according to Hockey Reference. In 2017-18, Pastrnak is leading Boston in scoring, with 17 points in 19 games.
Pastrnak's shot-based metrics are also strong, improving Boston's share of all shot attempts from 51.1 percent when he's not on the ice, to 54.8 percent when he is, in his four-season career.
Rather than having to pay upward of $8.0 million or more, or commit to seasons beyond his prime, Boston locked down Pastrnak for six years, with an annual cap hit of $6.67 million. Barring injury, this is a contract that the Bruins are unlikely to regret.
Bo Horvat, F, Vancouver Canucks
The deal: Six years, $33 million
For the first time since Markus Naslund in 2005-06, Vancouver's scoring leader was someone other than Daniel Sedin or Henrik Sedin. With 52 points in 81 games, Horvat led the team in scoring in 2016-17, which helped secure a six-year contract with an annual cap hit of $5.5 million. This season, Horvat has 16 points in 20 games, which is second on the team to rookie Brock Boeser, who has 17.
Unlike pure scorers Dadonov, Draisaitl and Pastrnak, Horvat also handles defensive-zone assignments and has averaged 2:01 minutes shorthanded over the past three seasons, which ranks second among Vancouver forwards to Brandon Sutter (2:08).
Looks good now, but carries long-term risk
In some cases, a player is performing his role effectively in the short term but is at risk of a significant decline before the contract's term expires.
Patrick Marleau, W, Toronto Maple Leafs
The deal: Three years, $18.75 million
Going into the summer free-agency period, the Maple Leafs had all the youth, speed and the scoring they needed to succeed but lacked someone who was experienced at playing the tough minutes. Marleau was just who they needed.
Playing on the second line with the team's top defensive players, Marleau has scored 14 points in 22 games this season and leads the team with a shot differential of plus-44 at 5-on-5.
Marleau has been a perfect fit for Toronto so far, but, at age 38, is he likely to continue to earn his team-high $6.25 million cap hit for three full seasons? Without a prolonged, age-defying performance, that seems doubtful.
Dmitry Kulikov, D, Winnipeg Jets
The deal: Three years, $13 million
Kulikov's lone season in Buffalo was a rocky one, as he scored just five points in 47 games in 2016-17 and finished with a minus-26 that was tied for seventh-worst in the NHL.
In Winnipeg, Kulikov has had much more success in a limited role on the third pair with Tyler Myers. He has already exceeded last season's scoring total, with six points in 18 games, and is a plus-7.
Despite those encouraging results, $4.33 million is simply too much to pay someone for 16:37 sheltered minutes per night, which ranks last among Winnipeg's six regular defensemen. Adding in the $5.5 million cap hit for Myers, Winnipeg might have the most expensive third pair of the salary-cap era.
Kevin Shattenkirk, D, New York Rangers
The deal: Four years, $26.6 million
With 17 points in 21 games, Shattenkirk is tied for third among defensemen in scoring. In 2016-17, he ranked fourth, with 56 points in 80 games for the St. Louis Blues and Washington Capitals.
At 28, his high-scoring ways might continue for the duration of his four-year contract, but a $6.65 million annual cap hit can only be justified for a complete, two-way player. However, Shattenkirk is deployed primarily in offensive situations, and does not kill penalties or take on top opponents. In 2016-17 and 2017-18 combined, Shattenkirk has an offensive-zone start percentage of 58.3 percent, and an average of 15 seconds per game killing penalties. Unless he rounds out his defensive game, this contract could lose some of its luster in the long term.
Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Washington Capitals
The deal: Eight years, $62.4 million
Running right up against the salary cap, the Capitals had some difficult decisions to make this summer about who they should keep and who would go. The greatest investment was made in Kuznetsov, who will carry a cap hit of $7.8 million for eight seasons, playing out the final season at age 32.
The Capitals have enjoyed some immediate rewards, as Kuznetsov leads the team with 23 points in 22 games while centering the top scoring line with Alex Ovechkin on the left wing, and either Devante Smith-Pelly or Jakub Vrana on the other.
However, the Capitals are down 359-287 in shot attempts at 5-on-5 this season with Kuznetsov on the ice, for a Corsi differential of minus-72 that ranks second worse to Jay Beagle, at minus-75, among the team's forwards.
As more of a one-dimensional offensive player, Kuznetsov can only justify his cap hit by maintaining his current point-per-game pace over the long term with and without Ovechkin, and by avoiding a slide back to the 59 points he scored in 2016-17 playing with Justin Williams and Marcus Johansson. Can he do it?
Alexander Radulov, W, Dallas Stars
The deal: Five years, $31.25 million
Disappointed with a tumble to the franchise's worst finish since 1995-96, the Stars invested heavily in several upgrades up front, on the blue line, in goal and even behind the bench. Of them, the only addition that seems to be working this season is Radulov, who is tied for second in scoring on the team 19 points in 20 games on the top line with Jamie Benn and (until recently) Tyler Seguin.
Even if he remains on a line with prolific scorers such as Benn and Seguin, Radulov is unlikely to maintain a nearly point-per-game pace from ages 31 through 35. It will likely revert down to his career average of 0.7 points per game, or even lower. When it does, an annual cap hit of $6.25 million will be too high for a 55-point winger.
Disappointing early results, but should come around
In some cases, there's no reason to overreact to a slow start, especially with well-rounded players with an established track record of good performance.
Martin Hanzal, C, Dallas Stars
The deal: Three years, $14.25 million
With just three points in 17 games and a minus-11 that is tied for seventh-worse in the NHL, it's fair to classify Hanzal's early performance with the Stars as a disappointment.
However, as can be seen in the following player-usage chart based on a weighted average of the previous three seasons, Hanzal possesses significant upside as a top-six center who can drive possession (the sized and shaded circles) while taking on top opponents (vertical axis) in both zones (horizontal axis).
Once he is fully recovered from his hand injury and the line combinations are stabilized, Hanzal should be able to regain his prior form and earn his annual cap hit of $4.75 million through the 2019-20 season.
Tyler Johnson, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
The deal: Seven years, $35 million
It seems like everything is going right for the Lightning, which is why Johnson's slow start is such a surprise. Johnson ranks 10th in team scoring with nine points in 20 games, and last with a minus-6. That's enough to make anyone nervous about his new seven-year contract, which carries a $5 million annual cap hit until he's 34.
Tampa Bay's abundance of offensive talent has shifted Johnson into more of a defensive-minded third-line role, where he's used almost as often when shorthanded (2:08 minutes per night) as on the power play (2:17). However, when used on the top lines in 2014-15, Johnson demonstrated a tremendous offensive upside, when he tied Steven Stamkos for the team scoring lead with 72 points in 77 games, and then led the NHL in postseason scoring, with 23 points in 26 games.
Johnson has a career average of 0.67 points per game, which works out to 55 points over an 82-game season. In the long term, an annual cap hit of $5 million might not prove to be excessive for a two-way center who can contribute offensively to that extent.
Risky signings From Day 1
It's almost impossible to classify a contract as being bad until after the fact, but it is possible to identify which ones carry the most risk of being categorized as such. In the following cases, early-season struggles could be an indication of just that.
Karl Alzner, D, Montreal Canadiens
The deal: Five years, $23.125 million
Veteran shot-blocking defensemen were at a premium this summer, and there might have been no better example than Alzner, 29, who signed a five-year contract with an annual cap hit of $4.625 million.
Playing primarily with Jeff Petry on Montreal's second pair, Alzner has been outscored 17-12 at 5-on-5, and the team's share of shot attempts has decreased from 54.6 percent to 52.6. When shorthanded, Montreal has allowed nine goals in 64:55 minutes with Alzner on the ice, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Much has already been written about what one-dimensional offensive players need to deliver to earn their contracts, and the same can be written about defense-focused players such as Alzner. He needs to be able to handle the big minutes against top opponents at even strength and shorthanded, without allowing them to score, or to tilt the shot clock in their favor. Given his struggles in Washington in 2016-17, where his share of shot attempts dropped from to 54.0 percent to 47.3 when he was on the ice at 5-on-5, that will be a challenging goal for Alzner to reach throughout his early 30s.
Nick Bonino, C, Nashville Predators
The deal: Four years, $16.4 million
An annual cap hit of $4.1 million for a third-line center is no bargain, but someone who plays that role effectively can certainly be worth it. According to the numbers, that description might not apply to Bonino, who is signed to such a deal for four seasons, from ages 29 through 32.
In a player usage chart, the circles denote how a team's shot-based metrics are affected when a given player is on the ice -- shaded is positive, white is negative, and the size of the circle denotes the extent. Based on a weighted average of the previous three seasons, Bonino has not performed particularly well from this perspective.
Knocked out of the lineup for 11 games with a lower-body injury, Bonino is off to a slow start with the Predators, who have been outscored 8-4 through nine games with him on the ice at 5-on-5. Despite the great reputation that comes with Stanley Cup success, these struggles might continue.
Ryan Johansen, C, Nashville Predators
The deal: Eight years, $64 million
Since he was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Seth Jones on Jan. 6, 2016, Johansen has scored 108 points in 144 games, which is second on the Preds to Filip Forsberg, at 117. Unlike one-dimensional offensive players, Johansen's position in the previous player-usage chart demonstrates that he takes on top opponents in both zones, while posting exceptional shot-based metrics. He has won 54.3 percent of his faceoffs in Nashville, has scored on 12-of-37 career shootout attempts, and can even be used in shorthanded situations. So, what's the significant risk?
There's no question that Johansen is and will long remain a solid, well-rounded player, but an $8.0 million cap hit demands a lot of scoring. So far this season, Johansen has just two goals and 27 shots in 20 games, and his current 53-point pace suggests that his days as a 60-point player could be over earlier in his eight-year contract rather than later. If that's the case, then this contract might eventually fall into disfavor.