No matter how many times we see hot and cold streaks come and go in hockey, there is always a tendency to jump to conclusions when early-season results either exceed or fall short of our expectations.
Having an eye for whether small-sample stats are indicative of things to come can be the difference between winning and losing, whether it's in the form of a coach giving more or less ice time or a general manager making a move.
But how can you know which direction a player's arrow is pointing? There are many factors to consider, and every situation is different. Is the cause of a strong or weak start to the year based on luck? Teammates? Ice time? Or is it a sign of the player's trajectory?
Let's have a look at examples of this season's hottest and slowest starts, and what's in store for them down the road:
Players who will be able to sustain small-sample success
Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers
Key stat: Oilers have outshot opponents 103-63 with McDavid on the ice.
The reigning Hart Trophy winner has dominated the puck with his incredible speed and playmaking ability. With nine points in eight games, he's among the leaders in scoring rate, but there is likely even more production to come from the league's best player. After all, he finished well ahead of a point-per-game pace last season.
Corey Crawford, G, Chicago Blackhawks
Key stat: .937 save percentage
Since Crawford's current save percentage mark would flirt with an all-time record, he isn't likely to stay at this clip, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the Blackhawks goalie compete for a Vezina Trophy. He's managed as high as a .924 save percentage twice previously as the Blackhawks' No. 1 goalie and is still in his prime.
Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
Key stat: 11 goals in 10 games
Unless we turn back the clock to the 1980s, the Russian goal scorer won't be producing a goal per game over an entire season, but he's become one of the premier offensive players in the NHL. In the past three seasons, Kucherov has 80 goals in 160 games.
Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
Key stat: Leafs are outscoring opponents 10-1 with Matthews on the ice.
Last year's Calder Trophy winner has already established himself as one of the top two-way centers in the NHL. His size, skating, skill and determination are matched only by a handful of players league-wide. Goaltending will get in the way of a 90 percent on-ice goals for percentage, but Matthews is very likely to continue leading a Leafs team stacked with skill.
Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
Key stat: 62.3 Corsi for percentage, No. 1 among defensemen
The 20-year-old blueliner is tremendously gifted with the puck. He can drive possession and navigate the neutral zone with the vision and patience of a veteran No. 1 D-man. The Blue Jackets have also set up their 2015 first-round pick to succeed by playing him alongside Seth Jones.
Players who will not be able to sustain small-sample success
Chris Stewart, F, Minnesota Wild
Key stats: Six goals in seven games, 42.9 percent shooting percentage
Injuries have pushed Stewart into a bigger role to start the season, but he hasn't been as effective as his goal total would indicate. The power winger has produced a shooting percentage that would pass for a good on-base percentage in baseball. He's nearly 30 percentage points above his career mark (14.4) while only managing a 43.6 Corsi for percentage.
Dustin Brown, F, Los Angeles Kings
Key stats: 11 points in nine games, 15.6 percent shooting percentage
There appears to be a spark in the Kings' offense following an offseason coaching (and GM) change, but Brown has never been close to a point-per-game player, especially during the past few seasons. Since 2013-14, he has only notched 118 points in 323 games, along with a 6.6 percent shooting percentage.
Derick Brassard, F, Ottawa Senators
Key stats: 10 points in nine games, plus-9 rating, 43.5 Corsi for percentage
The Senators landed a solid center when they acquired Brassard prior to last season, but he struggled in 2016-17, with only 39 points in 82 games. While he's come out of the gate on fire, the Sens are still getting crushed on the shot counter with him on the ice. It will be tough to sustain high point totals and on-ice goal differential when allowing the opponent more opportunities.
James Neal, F, Vegas Golden Knights
Key stats: Six goals in eight games on 20 shots
Vegas has been a good early-season story. They sit behind only the Kings in the Pacific Division in their inaugural season and have been an entertaining club to watch. However, their top scorer is producing at a rate twice his career mark. Even if Neal has found the fountain of youth, he's unlikely to keep rolling unless his shot totals improve.
Alex Pietrangelo, D, St. Louis Blues
Key stats: 1.22 points per game vs. career average 0.57 points per game
One of the best all-around defensemen in the game, Pietrangelo can certainly continue to shut down top opponents and add to his team's production on the power play, but he won't be scoring anywhere close to a point-per-game pace in a full season.
Players likely to shake off small-sample struggles
Carey Price, G, Montreal Canadiens
Key stat: .890 save percentage
It's been a rocky start to the season for the Canadiens offensively, defensively and in net. Prior to Tuesday's win, they had the second worst goal differential in the NHL. But during the past three seasons, Price has a .928 save percentage -- a mark good enough to win the Vezina Trophy in any given season. Unless he's hiding an injury, there's little doubt he'll catch fire soon.
Kyle Okposo, F, Buffalo Sabres
Key stats: Zero goals, one assist in eight games
The longtime Islander had a decent first season in Buffalo derailed by injury in 2016-17. It's worth wondering if there are any lingering effects, because Okposo hasn't been himself, putting only 17 shots on net thus far. He's had other rough patches historically, like scoring only four goals in the lockout-shortened season, but has always bounced back.
Devan Dubnyk, G, Minnesota Wild
Key stat: .737 penalty-kill save percentage
The Wild's rough start has been fueled by injuries and poor goaltending. Minnesota has been lit up on the penalty kill, making Dubnyk's start look worse than it really is. Overall, he's got a .923 save percentage since joining the Wild, so he should get it together soon.
Jordan Eberle, F, New York Islanders
Key stat: Zero goals on 23 shots
The former Oiler had the lowest shooting percentage of his career last season (9.6), so it was fair to expect a bounce-back after joining forces with John Tavares & Co. It hasn't played out that way thus far, but he's putting 2.6 shots on net per game and receiving more than 17 minutes per contest. He won't be unlucky for too much longer.
Brent Burns, D, San Jose Sharks
Key stat: Zero goals on 32 shots
Last year's Norris Trophy winner is off to a slow start. He notched 29 goals in 2016-17 but has yet to beat a goalie this season on 32 shots. The good news: His shot rate is identical to last season's mark. Give him time.
Players likely to continue small-sample struggles
Rick Nash, F, New York Rangers
Key stats: One point, 39 shots in 10 games
The Rangers' veteran winger has put a ton of shots on goal and has hardly anything to show for it. Normally that would be a sign that a bounce-back is forthcoming, but in Nash's case, his production has been trending downward. The former No. 1 overall pick is on his third straight season of falling point-per-game rates, and his ice time is now under 17 minutes per game.
Tomas Plekanec, F, Montreal Canadiens
Key stats: One goal in nine games, career-low 14:48 average ice time
The player who once reached 70 points is no more in Montreal. Plekanec scored just 10 goals last season in 78 games and hasn't managed a shooting percentage over 10 percent since 2014-15. At 35 years old, it's hard to see a return to peak form.
Carl Hagelin, F, Pittsburgh Penguins
Key stat: Two points in 10 games
One of the key role players on the Penguins' 2015-16 Stanley Cup team, Hagelin has had remarkably low shooting percentages recently. He's scored only seven goals on 154 shots (4.5 percent) since the beginning of 2016-17. Hagelin doesn't have much help either, with Phil Kessel playing alongside Evgeni Malkin these days.
Bobby Ryan, Ottawa Senators
Key stats: Zero goals, 12 shots on goal in eight games
In his prime, Ryan was getting more than three shots on goal each night. This season, he's averaging just 1.5 per contest. Injuries have taken their toll on the former Duck, whose shot rate has dipped for four straight seasons.
Jaromir Jagr, F, Calgary Flames
Key stat: Zero goals in five games
As magical as Jagr's career has been, all good things come to an end, and we appear to be rapidly approaching the finish of his Hall of Fame career. After notching only 16 goals last season in big minutes with the Panthers, Jagr has just nine shots in five games. This may have been one year too many for the NHL legend.