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The top player matchups in each playoff series -- and who will win

Erik Karlsson and Brad Marchand are their teams' leading scorers, and could see a lot of each other in their first-round series. Which team has the edge? Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire

Hockey may be the ultimate team sport, but certain player-on-player matchups can help set the tone of an entire game, and the direction of an entire playoff series.

Even when an individual's success relies on the support he receives from his teammates, not to mention a few lucky bounces, closely following a key matchup can provide a key indication of how well the team is executing its strategies on the whole.

As we get set to kick off another exciting edition of the Stanley Cup playoffs, let's take a look at the numbers behind one key matchup for every series, and determine which team has the edge in each case:


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Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Brandon Dubinsky, Columbus Blue Jackets

Crosby and Dubinsky have plenty of history together, dating back to their encounter in the opening round of the 2014 playoffs, followed by a vicious fight on Feb. 19, 2015, and an ugly cross-check incident on Nov. 27, 2015.

Like it or not, Crosby will have to contend with Dubinsky again, because he is Columbus' shutdown center, and remains as gritty and persistent as ever. His 248 hits ranked seventh in the NHL, he had two game misconducts, and tied Josh Anderson for the team lead with five major penalties.

Obviously, shutting down Crosby is an uphill battle. Since Mike Sullivan was named coach on Dec. 12, 2015, Crosby leads the league with 155 points in 128 games, and he just won the Rocket Richard trophy (as the league's top goal scorer) for the first time since scoring 51 goals in 2009-10. He is at the top of his game, and may very well be unstoppable right now.

Even if Dubinsky can slow Crosby down, that focus could create an opportunity for Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel to dominate against the depth lines. That's part of what makes the Penguins so hard to beat.

Edge: Pittsburgh


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Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Karl Alzner, Washington Capitals

Toronto has surprised fans and pundits with an immediate turnaround from 68 points in 2014-15 and 69 in 2015-16 to 95 points this season, its highest total since 103 points in 2003-04.

In what was expected to be more of a multiyear process, many of Toronto's rookies matured all at once. Matthews led the team with 69 points, William Nylander and Mitch Marner finished tied for third in the rookie scoring race with 61 points, and veterans James van Riemsdyk (62), Nazem Kadri (61) and Tyler Bozak (55), helped boost the team to 250 goals, which ranked fifth in the NHL.

The bad news for Toronto is that a late slump has landed it in a first-round series with one of the league's best defenses. The Capitals allowed the fewest goals, 177, the fourth-fewest shots, 2,282, and had the seventh-best penalty killing percentage, 83.8 percent.

Although Alzner is typically front-and-center against Washington's top opponents, which is Matthews in this case, the entire blue line is full of responsible two-way veterans who can counter the rest of Toronto's scoring depth as well.

Edge: Washington


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Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers vs. Shea Weber, Montreal Canadiens

When Montreal GM Marc Bergevin traded former Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators in exchange for aging and expensive defenseman Shea Weber, the ability to shut down top opponents is exactly the type of skill he had in mind.

Though no longer at their peak of Stanley Cup contention, the Rangers are still a dangerous team offensively, and finished fourth in the NHL with 253 goals. Their greatest weapon is Norwegian speedster Mats Zuccarello, who led the team in scoring for the second straight season, and has accumulated a team-high 228 points in 316 games in his four full NHL seasons.

Having spent nearly his entire career playing the toughest minutes that either Nashville or Montreal could assign, this is exactly the type of situation for which Weber was acquired. He can take on top opponents in all zones, in all manpower situations, and at all scores, while contributing at least 40 points of his own in nine of the past 10 82-game seasons.

Edge: Montreal


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Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins vs. Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

While the other matchups on this list feature one defensive-minded player trying to shut down an offensive star, this one is a two-way showdown.

Marchand and Karlsson are two of the most valuable players in the league, without whom their respective teams would not be in the playoffs.

For the third straight season, Marchand led the Bruins in goals, and his 85 points were the most since Marc Savard scored 88 points in 2008-09. As for Karlsson, he led the Senators in scoring for the fourth straight season, during which time he has scored more than 40 percent more points than anyone else on the team.

If Marchand has the edge in this matchup, then it's because he is playing on a line with Patrice Bergeron, who has finished top two in Selke Trophy voting for five straight seasons, and David Backes, who placed top five from 2011-12 through 2014-15. Together, they can shut down anyone in the world, including Ottawa's captain.

On the other hand, Karlsson usually plays with Marc Methot -- who might not make the top four on most other playoff teams. Plus, Karlsson is recovering from a foot injury sustained while blocking a shot, and Methot from a broken finger sustained after an ugly slash from Crosby, making it less clear if they can contain Marchand.

Edge: Boston


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Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks vs. Mike Fisher, Nashville Predators

With 34 goals and 89 points, Kane has led the Blackhawks in scoring for the second consecutive season. Since he plays on the wing of Chicago's top scoring line, he won't be facing a center like Fisher directly, but he will be facing his line.

At age 36, Fisher had an impressive bounce-back season, handling all the tough minutes at all scores and situations while adding 42 points of his own. Having missed six out of the final 10 games of the regular season with a lower-body injury, it's unclear whether he'll be ready to play in Game 1, especially at the level required to shut down a player of Kane's tremendous talents.

Edge: Chicago


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Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues vs. Ryan Suter, Minnesota Wild

Since Mike Yeo took over as coach of the Blues on Feb. 1, the Blues have a league-best record of 22-8-2, and have outscored opponents 93-60 for a goal differential of plus-33, which is also best in the league.

Offensively, the key to the Blues' success has been Tarasenko, who finished tied for fourth overall with 39 goals, which is at least twice as many as everyone on the Blues except Patrik Berglund, who scored 23. Shutting him down means extinguishing the red-hot Blues very quickly.

Is Suter up to the task? He has been Minnesota's workhorse for years, taking on all the tough opponents in all zones, at all scores, and in all manpower situations.

Since he joined the team in 2012, Suter leads the NHL with a jaw-dropping 10,511:20 minutes played. Plus/minus may be a bit of a bogus statistic, but his league-leading plus-34 crudely demonstrates just how effective the Wild have been when he was out there this season.

Edge: Too close to call


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Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames vs. Ryan Kesler, Anaheim Ducks

One of the best defensive forwards in the league, Kesler won the Selke with the Vancouver Canucks in 2010-11 after two seasons as one of the three finalists.

Acquired by Anaheim on June 27, 2014, Kesler continued that role in Anaheim, where he has helped boost the team to allowing the third-fewest goals, fourth in penalty killing percentage, and first in faceoff percentage this season. He finished third in Selke voting last season, and just topped 20 goals for the 10th time in the past 11 seasons, the only exception being his injury-shortened 2012-13 season.

In the first round, Kesler's task will be to shut down Monahan, who led Calgary with 27 goals. Monahan now has 107 goals in 319 career games, which is 46.6 percent more than linemate Johnny Gaudreau, who ranks second on the team in that time, with 73 goals.

If Kesler needs any help shutting down Monahan and Gaudreau, then he is likely to receive it from Jakob Silfverberg and iron man Andrew Cogliano, who have helped form what is arguably the league's best shutdown line.

Edge: Anaheim


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Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers vs. Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose Sharks

The most anticipated individual player matchup in the first round is between this season's Art Ross Trophy winner (as the league's top scorer), and someone who is widely regarded as one of the best defensive specialists in the league today.

Shutting down McDavid means shutting down the Oilers. With 30 goals and 70 assists, McDavid was part of a league-leading 41.2 percent of Edmonton's 243 goals. The Oilers' young captain finished with 100 points this season, and the only teammates who scored even half that many were linemate Leon Draisaitl (77) and Jordan Eberle (51).

Can Vlasic shut down the game's most dominant offensive force? In San Jose, defense is more of a team commitment, which is why the Sharks allowed the third-fewest shots, 2,269, and the fifth-fewest goals, 200. Vlasic will require his team's continued support if he is to fulfill the nearly impossible task of shutting down a generational talent like McDavid.

Edge: Edmonton