Atlantic draft strategy | Metropolitan | Central | Pacific
Most NHL teams say they subscribe strictly to the "best player available" theory. In my experience, some are being honest, some do that in the first round (and incorporate their depth charts beyond) and some take position into account from the beginning. If I were running a team, I'd fall somewhere in the middle because of the very marginal differences in prospect value outside the very top.
Team strategies in the draft should be slightly more complex than simply, "Draft the best player." Teams should try to balance their depth chart if the option is within a reasonable talent range, or they can make trades to either address the need or trade to a spot where the player they want would be a better value. In this series, I'll recommend the best strategies for every NHL team going into this year's draft, division by division. For more on the draft prospects mentioned here (and many more), be sure to check in on our Top 100 NHL draft prospects list.
For the purposes of this column, team strengths and weaknesses generally refer to a team's under-23 NHLers, or players who have not lost rookie eligibility. Players not specifically mentioned are included in the evaluation.
Colorado Avalanche
Strengths: The clear strength of the organization is at forward and specifically down the middle with Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly, although the latter pushed off to wing this season. With Gabriel Landeskog, as well, Colorado's core young forwards can go toe-to-toe with any team in the league. It remains to be seen where Joey Hishon fits in that conversation. They have a deep system at goalie, and although they don't have a true top goalie prospect, they have a number of solid ones.
Weaknesses: Colorado's young defense could use some shoring up. Tyson Barrie has had impressive stretches in the NHL, and Stefan Elliott did, as well, here and there. Duncan Siemens projects as a 4/5 defensive defender. Chris Bigras has been very impressive and is Colorado's top prospect currently, but they could use another top flight defense talent in their system. They could also add a little scoring talent on the wing, too.
Recommended Strategy: With the slot Colorado has with their first pick, they could be in a position to take either Roland McKeown or Julius Honka. Both are right-handed defenders to offset their top left-handed prospects in Bigras and Siemens. Both don't project as 22- to 25-minutes-a-night types of players, but they do have top-four upside. Defenders rarely will catch up to forwards on a development scale, but it helps round out their system. Their overall system depth isn't great enough that if a top defense prospect isn't at their pick, and they can't make a reasonable trade, they should just pick the best player available.
Chicago Blackhawks
Strengths: The Hawks are pretty strong at multiple positions in young players in the NHL and outside. Down the middle they have Teuvo Teravainen, Joakim Nordstrom and Mark McNeill to go with Andrew Shaw at the NHL level. On the wings there is Ryan Hartman, Phillip Danault and Tyler Motte to go with Brandon Saad, and on defense they have Adam Clendening, Stephen Johns, Robin Norell and several others with Nick Leddy.
Weaknesses: Kent Simpson is a decent goalie prospect, but they could use another player at that position. Asides from Teravainen, they lack a top-end talent, but that's a heck of a nitpick.
Recommended Strategy: With depth and talent at most positions, Chicago would be best-served to go with a best-player-available strategy. If possible, the Blackhawks could leverage their system depth to try and trade a few picks to go higher for more quality over quantity.
Dallas Stars
Strengths: The Stars' young forward group -- while not overly deep -- is pretty good quality. They have star talent in Tyler Seguin and Valeri Nichushkin, with Cody Eakin projecting as a good No. 2 to Seguin for the next couple of years. Brett Ritchie had a good, not great, first AHL season, but he is still a top prospect. They have ability at the goaltending position. Jack Campbell's development has been bumpy to say the least, but he is an above-average goalie prospect, and Philippe Desrosiers had an impressive QMJHL campaign.
Weaknesses: Dallas has some talent on defense, but it could add some more. Jamie Oleksiak's development is going steadily, but he's not a top-flight talent. John Klingberg had an impressive season overseas, and Patrik Nemeth is decent, but they could use some talent in that area. Overall their system can use depth at the skater positions, as well.
Recommended Strategy: I'm skeptical the second best D prospect Haydn Fleury gets to the Stars' pick without them trading up a few slots, but that's the ideal player they get from their range. They could probably wait at least one more season before taking another center high, especially since Radek Faksa projects into their bottom six at some point. If they can't get Fleury or move up while giving up little, they should for the most part go best player available.
Minnesota Wild
Strengths: Minnesota has a lot of young talent on defense. Jonas Brodin has looked fantastic in the NHL. Mathew Dumba's development has been rocky, but he has elite moments. Gustav Olofsson's development has been a pleasant surprise. Marco Scandella and Christian Folin don't have a ton of upside, but they're projectable to be decent. On the wings, Nino Niederreiter had a great bounce-back season, Charlie Coyle was a center but has moved off effectively to the side. Jason Zucker is hard to read. He could be an above-average NHLer or may settle into a bottom-six role. Mikael Granlund is starting to gain his form in the NHL.
Weaknesses: It's hard to pinpoint a real flaw among Minnesota's young players. Seeing as Granlund hasn't developed as it looked he may a few years ago, they lack a star-level talent on forward like they have with Brodin on defense, but a lot of teams do.
Recommended Strategy: The Wild should pick best player available and try to make the most out of the draft as possible. Next season will likely be a better time to fill in system holes should they keep their top pick. They could use a little more system depth, so a re-entry pick or two may be beneficial if the talent merits the slot to help provide potential help to the pro ranks soon.
Nashville Predators
Strengths: While most of Nashville's former top D prospects have started to enter their prime as regulars in the lineup, any organization with Seth Jones makes its young defense a strength. Jones had a strong rookie year, with a little tail off around the second half and won top defenseman at the World Championship. For the first time in awhile, the Preds are pretty strong in young forwards. Filip Forsberg had a fantastic season, including a World Junior MVP. Both he and Calle Jarnkrok, another top prospect, were acquired via trade. Brendan Leipsic had another huge scoring year in the WHL, while both Colton Sissons and Miikka Salomaki impressed in their rookie NHL seasons. The goaltending duo of Magnus Hellberg and Marek Mazanec is solid, too.
Weaknesses: They could use some more quality depth on defense, which is somewhat understandable after graduating Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and Jones, but still a hole in the pipeline.
Recommended Strategy: Nashville's organization is well-rounded enough that they are in a position to pick the best player, but if there's a tie, they lean defense. They have an ideal set up where the defenders are ahead of the forwards, as the latter can catch the former quicker than vice versa. They should be picking mostly on talent, but if they could add about two defensemen to the system, that would help.
St. Louis Blues
Strengths: The key strength for the organization currently is on the wings. Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz have been impressive at the NHL level, while Dmitrij Jaskin and Ty Rattie are top prospects. Magnus Paajarvi is talented, but it remains to be seen if he'll ever be an above-average NHLer. Goaltender Jake Allen has slowly but steadily come along and is a decent goalie prospect.
Weaknesses: The Blues need a lot at the center and defense position. D isn't as dire, as Jordan Schmaltz had a good NCAA season. I like Petteri Lindbohm, Tommy Vannelli looks toolsy and there are a few others I can name, but they could still use more quality there. Center is a pressing need, as there isn't a whole lot for them at that position.
Recommended Strategy: The Blues should be approaching this year's draft pretty much looking to take the best player. Their system is below-average, and while strong at wing, they aren't deep outside the NHL in quality prospects at the position. Ideally, even in a forward-heavy draft, they aren't taking a wing with their first pick if a roughly equally good center is available, but they shouldn't ignore the position, too. The NHL team is great, but they need a lot of everything in terms of young players.
Winnipeg Jets
Strengths: The Jets have a lot of high-end talent in their system. Evander Kane and Jacob Trouba are the obvious pillars as star or potential star NHLers. Kane is a top-line star goal scorer, while Trouba is going to be part of the argument going forward if he is the top player from the 2012 draft. They go along with players a notch or so below in Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey and Nic Petan. Their goaltending is also pretty solid, as Eric Comrie and Connor Hellebuyck are both very good goalie prospects.
Weaknesses: The Jets could stand to gain some more quality depth. Outside Morrissey on defense, they're a little thin, while Brenden Kichton is a promising puck mover they could improve there, then get a player with some quality defensive value. They're not as thin on the wings, as Adam Lowry and Scott Kosmachuk are decent prospects, but they could use some more on both sides.
Recommended Strategy: With how high the Jets will pick, they'll likely be in a position to draft either a high-end forward such as William Nylander or Nikolaj Ehlers, or the second best D prospect in Haydn Fleury. In that position, you take the best player being the forward, but from that point on, the Jets should try and add a few defensemen. It's preferable they try and get a blend of styles, but you don't want to get that micro, as it will take you away from the best talent.