Atlantic draft strategy | Metropolitan | Central | Pacific
Most NHL teams say they subscribe strictly to the "best player available" theory. In my experience, some are being honest, some do that in the first round (and incorporate their depth charts beyond), and some take position into account from the beginning. If I were running a team, I'd fall somewhere in the middle, due to the very marginal differences in prospect value outside the very top.
Team strategies in the draft should be slightly more complex than simply, "draft the best player." Teams should try to balance their depth chart if the option is within a reasonable talent range, or they can make trades to either address the need or trade to a spot where the player they want would be a better value. In this series, I'll recommend the best strategies for every NHL team going into this year's draft, division by division. For more on the draft prospects mentioned here (and many more), be sure to check in on our Top 100 NHL draft prospects list.
For the purposes of this column, team strengths and weaknesses generally refer to a team's under-23 NHLers, or players who have not lost rookie eligibility. Players not specifically mentioned are included in the evaluation.
Boston Bruins
Strengths: Boston's pipeline is pretty solid in the goal prevention area. Torey Krug and Dougie Hamilton are the big NHL names, but the Bruins have some fine prospects in Linus Arnesson, Matt Grzelcyk, Joe Morrow and others. Their centers are pretty good, as well, highlighted by Ryan Spooner and Alex Khokhlachev. Given the strength of the NHL roster, they might have trouble finding room, but Khokhlachev moved off to the wing this season in the AHL. 2012 first-rounder Malcolm Subban is an above-average goalie prospect.
Weaknesses: Scoring punch isn't a weak spot in the system, due to the aforementioned Spooner and Khokhlachev, but it isn't a strong spot, either. They dealt Tyler Seguin, but Reilly Smith has proven to be promising. Seth Griffith, Peter Cehlarik and Ryan Fitzgerald are interesting prospects, but another good prospect, preferably a winger, would really help to balance the organization.
Recommended strategy: In a draft that is very forward-heavy and light on defenders, this is a good season for the Bruins to add a scorer with their first pick. They don't need to get too crazy in addressing that need -- it's not a dire situation -- but that's the preferable option in the late first. The Bruins should likely just target the best player available from there on out.
Buffalo Sabres
Strengths: The Sabres have an elite farm system, and while I haven't updated my organization rankings yet, they have a very good argument to be first overall even before they select second in the upcoming draft. Much is made about their very strong group of young defenders in Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, Jake McCabe and Mark Pysyk, but their forward group is equally impressive, and maybe more so. Gustav Possler had a breakout season, and Johan Larsson has shown good flashes; with more experience, he may become a quality NHLer.
Weaknesses: It's hard to find issues within their farm system, but the Sabres could add another goalie. They have goalie talent in the pipeline with Nathan Lieuwen, Matt Hackett, World Junior Championship standout Andrei Makarov and breakout overseas talent Linus Ullmark, but none of them is really a high-end goalie prospect. If I had to poke a hole in their system, that would be it. Obviously at the NHL level, the team is a disaster, with one of the poorest offensive showings in recent memory. At even strength with the score close in 2013-14, the team finished last in goals, and tied for last in goals against.
Recommended strategy: The Sabres have the luxury of a well-balanced and high-end system, and the issue of a horrific NHL club, so "best player available" is how I'd proceed; teams like the Sabres can't be sacrificing marginal value too much using any other form of strategy. Since Buffalo does have a very good system, it may allow them to roll the dice on some riskier players -- say, a top Russian who is still overseas (but wants to transfer) in Vladislav Kamenev. If Aaron Ekblad goes first overall, I'd recommend Sam Bennett as their selection, due to his being a well-balanced player in between the styles that Mikhail Grigorenko, Cody Hodgson and Zemgus Girgensons provide.
Detroit Red Wings
Strengths: The Red Wings have a pretty deep system, partly due to good drafting and partly due to a massive traffic jam over the past few seasons between Grand Rapids and Detroit. If the strength leans anywhere, it's toward the forwards, as Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar finally worked their way into regular playing time this season ... and there are more coming. Tomas Jurco and Riley Sheahan showed well in the NHL, Anthony Mantha had a huge season in the QMJHL and Teemu Pulkkinen was impressive in the AHL. Detroit's depth on defense shows with Xavier Ouellet, Ryan Sproul, Alexei Marchenko and Mattias Backman. Petr Mrazek and Jake Paterson are a solid goalie duo.
Weaknesses: Detroit could use some help at center, especially if Sheahan graduates. Mattias Janmark is an interesting prospect that Detroit drafted last year as a re-entry, but given that top centers Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are getting up there in age, it would be beneficial to shore up that part of the organization.
Recommended strategy: I'd try and get a center in the first round for Detroit. A player like David Pastrnak or Robby Fabbri would be a nice add. I'd also target a couple of long-term prospects in college and European players who they can take three to four years to sign instead of burning out their first pro contract in a long stay in the AHL.
Florida Panthers
Strengths: Panthers fans have probably heard this for too many years, but the organization is pretty strong in young players. Up the middle, Florida looks very promising with 2013 second overall pick Aleksander Barkov, Nick Bjugstad and Vincent Trocheck who all impressed at the NHL level this season. Rocco Grimaldi is also a player in that mix but not at the same level. On D, the Boston College duo of Mike Matheson and Ian McCoshen are top prospects to go with Gudbranson and Alex Petrovic at the pro level. Jonathan Huberdeau did not have a great second NHL season, but he remains an elite young talent.
Weaknesses: While their system is strong at defense, as an organization they lack that standout defense prospect. This is partly because 2010 No. 3 overall pick Erik Gudbranson, who is still a player with a chance to be a good long-term defenseman, has not developed as hoped to this point. They have an elite prospect up front in Barkov, but lack that type of foundational piece on defense. With the failed development of Jacob Markstrom, the club could also use some more goaltending talent. Another issue with their young players is that none have yet turned into a true top-end NHL player; while the organization has promise, the fans are understandably anxious for some results.
Recommended strategy: If Florida does not get a good offer for the top pick, the guy to take is Ekblad. I know Florida looked horrible on offense this past season, but he's a true elite prospect. You're not getting a forward player of his caliber at No. 4 or 5 (in the trade scenario), and they need a player like him almost as badly as they need an elite forward prospect. If they do get a good offer, the play may be to go down a few slots to take a player like William Nylander, Michael Dal Colle or Nikolaj Ehlers; they'd just need a player worth passing on Ekblad to do this. They could also stand to add some wingers after the first round.
Montreal Canadiens
Strengths: Montreal is pretty strong on the wing. Jacob de la Rose (who may be a center, but will likely be a winger), Artturri Lehkonen, Martin Reway and Charles Hudon have all impressed since their draft. Mike McCarron trended down a little this past season, but he's still a solid prospect. Even though he was drafted No. 3 overall as a center, Alex Galchenyuk has yet to play there consistently, and given the current roster may end up at left wing long-term. Brendan Gallagher is a big success story in Montreal. They have two pretty good D prospects in Nathan Beaulieu and Jarred Tinordi, as well. Zach Fucale is a top goalie prospect.
Weaknesses: Montreal could really use a top center in its system. That player isn't needed for the immediate future, so maybe Montreal could target a college player like Dylan Larkin or a European like David Pastrnak; the Habs can be patient with either of those two. They could also use some depth on defense. While the top end of their D group is good and they have talent in the AHL, it's thin in the under-20 ranks.
Recommended strategy: Montreal is picking in the late first, but I do think some quality centers may be available. I may try to move up in their position to target some of the aforementioned forwards, and if that isn't possible, either move down or potentially look to take Josh Ho-Sang if he gets to Montreal's spot. I'd be looking to leave the draft with multiple centers and defensemen, with the obvious caveat of trying to not go off the board while accomplishing that goal.
Ottawa Senators
Strengths: The Senators have some really good pillars up front in Mika Zibanejad, Curtis Lazar and Mark Stone. The latter isn't at the same level, but overall that's a pretty impressive top three youngsters at forward around whom they can build. Robin Lehner is a high-end talent in net, as well.
Weaknesses: Cody Ceci is a good prospect, but overall the team needs more top talent on defense in its system, never mind the sinking ship that was its NHL defense group in 2013-14, one that Erik Karlsson managed to keep from being a full-blown disaster. Mikael Wikstrand looks like a promising puck mover, but they need more talent in that area. Overall, the system can use depth at multiple positions.
Recommended strategy: Without a first-round pick in 2014 (moved in the Bobby Ryan trade to Anaheim), Ottawa's in a bit of a hole, especially in a draft that isn't great on defense if the top options go quickly. With no top pick, the Senators likely should stick to a somewhat strict best player available approach to try and accumulate as much value as they can, with efforts to try and get a top defender if the slot is reasonable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Strengths: Tampa's young core group at forward is as good as it gets. The Lightning had two Calder finalists this past season (Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat), Nikita Kucherov had a big first campaign as a North American pro, Andrei Vasilevski is among the top goalie prospects in the sport and they have several top pieces in the AHL. Oh, and they also have arguably the top player who didn't play in the NHL in 2013-14 in Jonathan Drouin.
Weaknesses: Their defense group is decent and while it's not weak, it's the area in most need of shoring up. The 2012 draft's 10th overall pick, Slater Koekkoek had a big bounce-back season and looks like a good prospect, and Nikita Nesterov is solid. Overall, however, Tampa could use a little more quality depth in terms of defense prospects.
Recommended strategy: With two first-round picks, Tampa can afford to take the best player available while also potentially addressing the need for another top defense prospect. Players like Roland McKeown or Julius Honka could be available with their second first-round pick (the Rangers' pick at No. 28 overall). This season, Tampa had 20 players make an appearance in the NHL in their age-25 season or younger. The Lightning do not need to draft re-entries and older/low-upside players. They would be best served to take a lot of talented first-year eligible amateurs, and potentially some whose rights they can hold for four years.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Strengths: The Leafs' strength isn't a resounding one, but they're pretty solid in young defensemen, led by elite talent Morgan Rielly. Stuart Percy and Matt Finn are both above-average prospects, Tom Nilsson has progressed well and they also have Petter Granberg, who has average upside. They're fine on the wings with Connor Brown and Andreas Johnson both having big seasons, and the continued development of Josh Leivo. Given what they have at the NHL level on the wings in Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk and Joffrey Lupul, they likely don't need a ton in that area to fill in the depth chart.
Weaknesses: Even with the drafting of Fred Gauthier in the first round last year and acquiring Peter Holland by trade, the Leafs could use a real top-end center prospect with scoring upside. The system is fine in depth, but can use a real high-upside type with Rielly's graduation. Garret Sparks and Antoine Bibeau are an OK goaltending duo, but the Leafs could use an option with more upside at that position.
Recommended strategy: At No. 8, the Leafs likely won't be in a position to draft Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart or Leon Draisaitl. Their organization really needs a high-end center talent, so they should be trying to move up if the price is at all reasonable. Failing that, the organization isn't so absurdly strong at wing that it would be a bad decision to pass up a player like Nylander or Ehlers, and both of them have very real chances of being available at Toronto's slot. Given the need for an elite talent in the system, it likely isn't the best move to trade down to get a center, as the caliber of player they'd be looking to pick up likely won't be substantially better than a prospect like Gauthier or someone who could bump Nazem Kadri out of the mix in the very near future.