Week 13 gives us a matchup where both teams are running out of runway. USC sits at No. 15 at 8-2, while Oregon is No. 7 at 9-1. Both need this win like oxygen.
USC's playoff window is down to a thinnest sliver, if that -- win out or watch it close. Oregon is one loss away from losing control of its season.
Two top 15 teams, one tightrope, and we're about to find out who keeps their footing or who cracks under the pressure.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 15 USC Trojans at No. 7 Oregon Ducks
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: Oregon -9.5
Money line: Oregon (-380), USC (+290)
Over/Under: 59.5 (O -105, U -115)
USC: When early downs aren't there, everything falls apart
USC looks like a top-tier offense on paper but the main parts are fragile. The Trojans are top five in early-down success rate at more than 50%, which creates rhythm and space, but the moment they miss on first or second down the entire structure drops out. Their average third-down distance is more than seven yards, one of the longest among ranked teams. You can't function against real defense living in third and long that often.
That's the contrast. When the Trojans are ahead, the offense hums but when they aren't, they become predictable and desperate for bomb plays instead of earning them. Oregon is the wrong opponent for that flaw. The Ducks are near the top in early-down EPA allowed, which means they win the exact downs USC depends on to stay alive.
Oregon tackles at a high level, plays clean and shrinks windows USC normally hits. If the Trojans lose early down in Eugene, they're not built to survive long fields, long drives or long situations. Take away the rhythm of a Lincoln Riley run offense and the identity disappears. Oregon can take that away.
Betting consideration: USC team total under 24.5 (-130)
I would play it to 23.5 but grab the better number if you can. Oregon has the exact defensive profile that gives USC's QB Jayden Maiava problems. He can hit the deep ball --19 yards per pass attempt with five scores -- but he completed barely half of them. The misses create stalled drives when defenses can cover vertically. Oregon's corners all grade over 80% in coverage which means fewer freebies downfield.
The intermediate area shows the bigger concern -- six touchdowns and three interceptions -- against a secondary built to defend that part of the field, with the third best grade in coverage. Short throws are usually USC's outlet, but Oregon tackles too well (third best grade in tackling). That removes yards after the catch, which removes chunk gains this offense needs to stay afloat.
The deep ball is challenged, the middle of the field is contested, and the short game dies on contact. Without big-time gains or YAC, USC is left trying to stack 12-play drives against a defense designed to end them.
This matchup supports the team total under for USC at every layer.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Oregon is 9-3 vs. ranked teams in last three seasons, tied with Arizona State for second best in FBS.
USC is 3-11 ATS on the road in last three seasons, worst in the FBS.
The Trojans are 4-1 as underdog in last two seasons, tied with four other teams for second best in FBS (min. 5 games as underdog).