Can we talk about North Texas for a minute?
The third week of playoff rankings have been released and the wildest thing is North Texas is sitting -115 both ways to make or miss the playoff ... while not even being ranked. Tulane is the only AAC team the committee is willing to acknowledge, and Navy isn't in the Top 25 either. Yet the books hung a number that basically says: this is the team the market expects to rise.
The committee is reacting to resumes. North Texas has big wins, but not quality wins. Washington State, Army and South Alabama don't move the needle. Then UNT has one loss, a 63-36 defensive collapse to South Florida. That's the kind of disaster game that the committee essentially punishes. Tulane looks cleaner and Navy looks competitive, but again ... only Tulane is ranked.
Sportsbooks don't price resumes, they price where this ends. North Texas is the team with the ceiling, the scoring margin, the passing efficiency, the path to 12-1 and the underlying metrics that force the committee's hand late.
So no, North Texas isn't ranked today and yes, they're still -115 to make the playoff. The Committee is grading September through November. The market is grading December.
Betting consideration: North Texas to win the AAC (-155)
UNT winning the conference comes down to being structurally complete and not just explosive. They lead the conference in scoring at 45 points per game, sit near 490 yards per game and carry one of the best passing efficiency profiles in all of college.
QB Drew Mestemaker has 3,000 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, with four receivers exceeding 340 yards -- the most balanced passing tree in the AAC. Navy and Tulane don't have the counterpunch for that. The gap is both stylistic and mathematical.
Against Tulane, the separation shows up instantly. Tulane average 28 points per game and barely clears 400 yards. The Green Wave's explosiveness is limited, their yards per pass is solid but not game-breaking, and they rely on staying ahead of schedule.
UNT forces you off schedule, creating turnovers at a rate Tulane hasn't faced, tied for the most in the conference. Tulane also doesn't have the tempo or vertical threats to match possessions. If you fall behind UNT, the game stretches.
Navy could be trickier because they shorten possessions, but the matchup still leans green. Navy lives at 6.4 yards per carry, dragging you into a trench game, but they have no ability to chase. Navy's loss to North Texas already told the story, once UNT scores twice, Navy shows its one-dimensional limitations.
The AAC title comes down to scoreboard pressure. North Texas has the conference's highest ceiling, highest scoring range and the cleanest statistical path to the title trophy, regardless of whether they are a ranked team or not.