Roster Reload: Miami Heat

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This isn't quite the conversation we expected to be having at this time.

That the two-time champion Miami Heat were beaten by the San Antonio Spurs is no great shock. There were many rational people among us who saw the matchup as too close to call. However, the resounding fashion by which the Spurs dissected and dispatched LeBron James & Co. was shocking. It also calls into question Miami's offseason strategy. Before, it seemed like Pat Riley was primarily tasked with keeping the Big Three together, while again trying to improve the roster at the margins. However, with the Heat no longer the clear-cut best team in the league -- and a cap situation that is entirely flexible -- there is no telling what direction Riley might take.

Already, rumors of a blockbuster signing of Carmelo Anthony have made the rounds, and that was before the Heat had been throttled by San Antonio. It's going to be an interesting summer across the league, but what happens in South Beach will likely set the tone for everybody else.

2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 59.0 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)

I. Main assets

Elhassan: It seemed like the Miami Heat would dominate the NBA for the next decade when they were assembled in 2010, but we're barely four years later and it's hard not to argue that they are trending downward.

While LeBron James is still the best player in basketball, the drop in his athletic explosion was more pronounced this season, and while he'll still be a dominant player for years to come due to his unique combination of size, skill and IQ, it's hard to ask him to go back to a Cleveland-era level of production in which he has to carry a roster of "others." Chris Bosh remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in basketball, a highly effective and intelligent defender with a still-evolving offensive skill set. Dwyane Wade is officially firmly in "past his prime" territory; he can be relied upon to be the Wade of Old every so often, but most nights he just looks like Old Wade.

Beyond the Big Three, the roster is decrepit: Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are both backup guards, Ray Allen has boiled down to strictly a spot-up shooter, Shane Battier has already lined up his post-playing career, Chris Andersen has become a flightless bird. But there's a bright side: The Heat are still one of the best-run franchises in sports, with excellent ownership that is on the same page as management and coaching, making them an attractive destination for players beyond their South Beach zip code.

Doolittle: It's almost a moot point, but of course the Heat would still rate as an elite team on paper if the same roster was brought back. We already know that Battier is retiring, so that won't be possible. The Big Three all put up representative seasons, though Wade's playing time was more carefully managed than ever before. There are so many possible open spots on the roster that Miami's performance could swing wildly in either direction from this early baseline forecast.

II. Shake it up

Elhassan: Miami's books are set up to eerily mirror their 2010 cap sheets, with the Big Three all holding early termination options that would allow them to tear up their deals and sign new contracts. If they do, the Heat will have only three players under contract: Cole, Andersen (who holds a player option) and Udonis Haslem (who also holds a player option). This can give the Heat incredible flexibility to seek an upgrade to the roster if the Big Three agree to give bigger discounts than they did in 2010.

That's a lot to ask, for sure, but they need look no further than the team that vanquished them in the Finals as a model for what taking less money can do for keeping the window for championship contention open longer. On the agenda: Adding young, athletic size up front, infusing more shooters (particularly of the "3 and D" variety) and upgrading the point guard position.

Doolittle: It starts with James' decision on whether to opt out, and the eventual terms he's willing to agree to. Then all the dominoes fall one direction or the other based upon that. Wade is likely staying one way or another if for no other reason than his status as the Heat's iconic player. Bosh says he's staying, but it's not hard to imagine that if things break a certain way with James, another situation might look a lot better. Whether it's targeting Melo or agreeing to lower-than-market deals in order to improve the top-to-bottom depth, it's going to be a group decision between the Big Three and Riley. But it all starts with LeBron.

III. Obstacles to success

Elhassan: How much of a salary giveback are the Big Three willing to concede? Are they willing to concede anything at all? It's always tough to ask players to leave money on the table; they have a relatively small window of time to maximize their earnings and make enough to support themselves and their families for the rest of their lives. More importantly, who are the free-agent options that could help this team? There aren't as many transcendent talents that the Heat would be able to afford, even with massive concessions by the Big Three.

Nevertheless, these complaints are the NBA equivalent of #FirstWorldProblems: most teams have to worry about bigger structural issues, such as meddling ownership, incompetent management, unimaginative coaching, toxic cap sheets, depleted pick inventories. The Heat have none of those problems.

Doolittle: The biggest question is whether the status quo is even an option in terms of chasing more championships. Not only is San Antonio's core likely to stay in place for another season, but the West is chock full of teams not far behind the Spurs. And the Heat's singular supremacy in the East can't last forever, especially if the Bulls have a home run of a summer. Miami has a terrific organization in place, and you can expect that whatever questions we raise here, Riley probably has already figured out a likely answer to all of them.

IV. An "Ideal" Roster