The first of two consecutive weeks of UFC welterweight main events takes place Saturday, as Randy Brown and Gabriel Bonfim headline UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. ET). A welterweight title fight tops next week's UFC 322 fight card.
Brown is making his second Octagon appearance of the year after he picked up a second-round knockout over Nicolas Dalby in April. Bonfim enters the contest on a three-fight winning streak, most recently beating former welterweight title challenger Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson by split decision in July. Coincidentally, Bonfim's last loss was a second-round TKO against Dalby in November 2023. Neither Brown nor Bonfim is ranked in ESPN's MMA divisional rankings.
ESPN MMA analyst Din Thomas provides his main event prediction, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the card.
Welterweight main event
Prediction: Brown to win by knockout.
Brown's only path to win is by knockout, but good news for him, he's got a good chance to do that. He's got the reach advantage plus some newfound confidence that wasn't there earlier in his career, allowing him to plant his feet, stay in the pocket and throw punches from a range that Bonfim will struggle with. Bonfim needs to close the distance to have a chance, but he'll risk getting knocked out to do that. -- Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds current as of publish time. For more, see ESPN BET
Parker: Brown to win (+150). I don't understand how Brown is an underdog in this matchup. Not only has he fought higher-level competition, but he has more ways to win and has better cardio if the fight goes into the later rounds.
Brown has to keep the fight standing, where he will have a striking advantage and a reach advantage. As long as he can avoid getting taken down in the first round, he should be able to get the upset over Bonfim.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic
Salikhov to win (+140). I don't believe Medic should be favored in this matchup. Medic has been dropped often, and now he's fighting a lethal striker with a high fight IQ. Give me Salikhov at plus money to get the upset win.
Men's bantamweight: Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos
Simon to win (-175). I love the odds on Simon here. Barcelos doesn't present any danger to Simon in this fight, outside of a flash knockout. Barcelos is a talented and tough fighter, but Simon is a terrible matchup for him. As long as Simon can avoid the early calf kicks from Barcelos, he should get the win.
Men's bantamweight: Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos
Marcos to win (-195). Johns is always a tough out, but if he can't get his wrestling going, he will be outpointed by Marcos on the feet. Marcos has great durability and takedown defense, which should help him fend off wrestling and power strikes from Johns. I expect the fight to go the distance, with Marcos utilizing his striking advantage to earn a win.