Roster Reloads: Charlotte Bobcats | Chicago Bulls | Houston Rockets
Given how Atlanta played this season when it had at least a couple of healthy, NBA-caliber big men, it should have been no great surprise that they pushed an Indiana team that was not exactly peaking entering the postseason. Lots of times, when you have a playoff series upset -- or near upset, as in this case -- the shock wears off with the benefit of hindsight, because the upstart in the matchup turns out to be a really good outfit that just happened to catch their stride at the most important time of the year.
There might be some of that going on in Atlanta. First-year coach Mike Budenholzer has established an efficient, fun style of play, and general manager Danny Ferry has lots of leeway to take his evolving roster in any number of exciting possible directions.
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 48.8 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Al Horford remains possibly the most underrated player in the league, and while two of his past three seasons have been decimated by injury, his more-than-reasonable salary of $12 million per year combined with his relatively young age (he's just 27) make him an ideal cornerstone for the franchise. The silver lining to Horford's absence has been the growth of Paul Millsap, who raised his game to All-Star heights, fully unleashing a vast repertoire of offensive game that would have seemed far-fetched a few years ago as a backup power forward in Utah.
Meanwhile, Kyle Korver justified the $24 million investment the Hawks made in him last summer, solidifying his status as the game's great shooter with a lot of "gravity" (stretching defenses) -- and, in fact, a late-season, six-game absence almost torpedoed the Hawks' playoff hopes. Jeff Teague was serviceable and stepped his game up a notch in the playoffs against the Pacers.
Doolittle: The Hawks were 30-16 when Korver, Teague, DeMarre Carroll and Millsap were in the starting lineup along with one of the Atlanta's top three big men: Horford, Pero Antic or Elton Brand. That's a pace of 53 wins over a full season. Danny Ferry has his top six players locked up for next season, all on team-friendly deals -- assuming Horford returns to full health from his torn pectoral. While Atlanta finished 16th and 15th in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, the Hawks ranked 10th on offense and 13th on defense through Dec. 26, the date Horford played his last game. That serves as a good baseline for this club moving forward, as Korver is the only starter beyond his athletic prime, but his skill-based game should hold up fine for the next few years.
The Hawks had terrific chemistry, which is a testament to Ferry's team-building strategies. And while you want to be careful how you shake that up, the fact of the matter is without another top-flight talent, the Hawks probably can't be more than a second-tier team. Ferry realizes this of course, and that's why Atlanta has the flexibility to make a significant acquisition when the opportunity presents itself.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Atlanta has positioned itself to have considerable cap flexibility while still having its core under contract. While this encourages fantasies of acquiring high-priced free agents (a max offer sheet for Eric Bledsoe, for example), a more likely scenario would have the Hawks continue to accumulate assets by being able to absorb short-term toxic salaries in exchange for draft pick considerations.
In this manner, Atlanta can add supporting cast members who might not be worth their paychecks but can still contribute, while bringing with them valuable future first-rounders. In terms of tradeable assets, the rights to 2013-draftee Lucas Nogueira had been rumored to be in play around the trade deadline and might be the type of deal sweetener to help grease a deal.
Doolittle: The Hawks have the highest non-lottery pick in June at No. 15, as well as the aforementioned Nogueira stashed overseas. Nogueira is a head-turning, 7-foot athlete, and has a chance to be a high-energy, impact defender of the rim. He'd boost a defense that ranked 28th in block rate in 2013-14 and would have the luxury of developing in a niche role behind Millsap and Horford, while playing alongside Antic on the second unit.
As for a splashier move, how about a trade? The Rockets might have to part ways with an allegedly disgruntled Omer Asik and at the same time, they must figure out what to do about Chandler Parsons' team option. If they exercise it, he can become an unrestricted free agent next season, and unless Houston decides he's the third foundation player to go with James Harden and Dwight Howard, there might not be money to keep him. If they don't pick up the option, Parsons becomes a restricted free agent this summer, and he's a guy the market is really going to like.
Daryl Morey can address both issues by allowing Parsons to become an RFA, then ship him with Asik in a sign-and-trade scenario to Atlanta for Millsap and Carroll. Millsap becomes a high-level third wheel for Houston, while Carroll is remarkably similar to Parsons, albeit with a lower ceiling, and better defense. Asik upgrades the Hawks' defense and pushes Horford to power forward, while Parsons is an upgrade over Carroll. An Asik, Teague, Korver, Parsons and Horford lineup offers a similar dynamic to what Gregg Popovich has in San Antonio.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Despite being a popular destination on NBA road trips, Atlanta remains exactly that: a nice place to visit. The Hawks have traditionally struggled to attract the type of transcendent free agents who can change the fortunes of a franchise. In fact, in the past 25 years the Hawks have successfully signed just three big-name free agents: Dikembe Mutombo in 1996, Joe Johnson in 2005, and Millsap in 2013. And you can make the argument that all three players arrived in Atlanta with smaller reputations than the ones they built there.
Resigning yourself to a strategy of unearthing diamonds in the rough and accumulating assets in the hopes of completing a blockbuster deal someday can place a strain on a front office that can be unfairly judged as incapable of securing a superstar.
Doolittle: Ferry really has the Hawks in a great place. The big hurdle to my proposed makeover is simple: Morey might not want to do it, especially because Parsons is so well embedded in Houston's team culture.