Preseason rankings are a great glimpse of a college basketball season ahead. But we can only measure what we see right now. And that lens is limited.
Over the next five months, however, some of the top teams in the country -- and a couple of mid-majors -- will hit a mark that might be more indicative of a team's ceiling: 30 wins.
Why does that number matter?
Since 2013-14 -- and we're eliminating the 2019-20 season that ended without an NCAA tournament as well as the 2020-21 campaign that featured imbalanced schedules due to the pandemic -- seven of the 10 national champions had won at least 28 games by the time they reached Selection Sunday. Ninety-three teams reached the 30-win mark by the end of those respective seasons in that stretch, too.
Teams can always get hot and make a run in the NCAA tournament to turn a solid 24- or 25-win season into a miraculous finish that ends with a national title. In recent college basketball history, however, the bulk of the national champions were already flirting with that 30-win tally before they cut down the nets in the final game.
Yeah, we talk about Cinderellas. A lot. But barring Baylor's 28-win campaign during the pandemic in 2021, the last team to win a national title without reaching 30 wins was Arizona (25-9) in 1997. Sure, conference schedules were mostly shorter then, but three other teams in 1996-97 reached 30 wins: Kentucky, Kansas and Minnesota.
The following teams, in alphabetical order, have the talent, experience, depth and, perhaps, the schedule to make those coveted 30 wins a reality this season.
BYU Cougars
Few coaches lean into the analytics obsessed model employed by Kevin Young to best position his players to impact the game. As a result, the first-time collegiate head coach had the best offense in America for the last half of the 2024-25 season. This season, he has potential No. 1 draft pick AJ Dybantsa, Baylor transfer Robert Wright III and All-Big 12 first-team selection Richie Saunders -- in short, all the talent he needs to build another offensive machine in Provo and improve on last season's 26-win tally.
Duke Blue Devils
AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson could be the top picks in next summer's NBA draft, but fellow freshman Cameron Boozer -- the projected No. 3 selection in June -- could have the best statistical season among the trio. His 33-point (4-for-7 from 3), 12-rebound effort in an exhibition win over UCF might be a sign of things to come. With Boozer as the anchor of a stacked freshman class and returning vets such as Isaiah Evans in the mix, a 30-win season is within reach for the Blue Devils.
Florida Gators
Boogie Fland (13.5 PPG, 5.1 APG at Arkansas last season) will be the starting point guard and former Princeton star Xaivian Lee will be a secondary ball handler for a Gators team seeking back-to-back national titles. That's two elite guards to feed Alex Condon, a preseason AP first-team All-American, and his teammates. A team that led the nation with 36 wins a season ago could repeat that feat in 2025-26.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Mark Few has won 30 games eight times in his career. He would certainly take a Final Four trip over adding a ninth 30-win season that falls short of that feat. Still, before moving to the new Pac-12 next season, the Bulldogs could steamroll their WCC opponents. Graham Ike has All-American potential, Braden Huff could capture most improved honors and GCU transfer Tyon Grant-Foster was just granted a preliminary injunction to play another year of college basketball.
Houston Cougars
At Big 12 media day, Kelvin Sampson said Chris Cenac Jr. (a projected draft lottery pick) and the two other top-25 recruits on his roster have been "getting their lunch handed to them every day." That's the norm for Houston, which does not typically rely on young talent. Those rookies do however have veterans like Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Joseph Tugler as their anchors to keep Sampson's 30-plus win streak going for a fifth season.
Kentucky Wildcats
Mark Pope has assembled a squad with depth he didn't have a season ago. Injuries limited the potential of the Wildcats who still reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. With SEC preseason Player of the Year Otega Oweh leading the way and former Pitt star Jaland Lowe running the show at point guard, Kentucky can build on that accomplishment and chase 30-plus wins. The eventual return of projected lottery pick Jayden Quaintance, who tore his right ACL in February, will boost those odds.
Louisville Cardinals
Mikel Brown Jr. could be a top-five draft pick. He's also the elite guard that could take Pat Kelsey's program to the next level. Kelsey has done more with less: Over the past three seasons (two at Charleston), the second-year Cardinals head coach has won at least 27 games. And this is his best roster yet. Louisville hit 30 wins by the end of the season, albeit in a more challenging ACC.
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Five of the Redhawks' top-six scorers are back for Travis Steele, led by All-MAC first-team guard Peter Suder (13.7 PPG). This group won 25 games last season, finishing 15th in the nation with a 38.2% clip from beyond the arc. The next step is possible.
McNeese Cowboys
The Cowboys lost four starters after winning 28 games and reaching the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. Will Wade is gone, too, but his longtime assistant Bill Armstrong takes over to add to the 58 victories accumulated over the past two years. The reason McNeese could extend that trend? Reigning Southland Player of the Year Javohn Garcia (12.6 PPG) is ready to prove he's one of the best mid-major players in the country.
Michigan Wolverines
The last time Dusty May surpassed the 30-win mark, he led Florida Atlantic to the 2023 Final Four. He has reloaded in his second year in Ann Arbor -- following the departure of first-round draft pick Danny Wolf -- with another NBA prospect: Yaxel Lendeborg, a two-time American Conference Defensive Player of the Year. Reaching 30 wins in the Big Ten won't be easy this season, but the Wolverines will only face Illinois, UCLA and Purdue once in league play. Their ability to hit the mark could also be affected by the team's performance in a loaded Players Era Festival in Las Vegas.
Purdue Boilermakers
Braden Smith was a unanimous AP preseason All-America first-team selection, and he's the front-runner to win the Wooden Award. The last time the Boilermakers had a Wooden Award winner, Zach Edey led the team to 34 wins and a national title game appearance. Smith could become the third player in four years to capture that honor at Purdue. And if Trey Kaufman-Renn's rise continues (20.1 PPG last season), 30 victories, and more, are possible.
St. John's Red Storm
Zuby Ejiofor could give St. John's a back-to-back Big East Player of the Year. Last season, he was a major contributor to a team that captured New York City's heart and made an appearance on "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon." This is not the imposing Big East of past years, and this season Ejiofor will be surrounded by the top transfer class in America -- including former All-Big East forward Bryce Hopkins, who is fully healthy after an ACL injury in 2023 -- magnifying this team's chance to win 30 games and make another run in March.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Grant McCasland might have lost Darrion Williams, a talented forward who nearly helped beat Florida in the Elite Eight. But according to those who've watched the Red Raiders practice, LeJuan Watts -- the versatile 6-foot-6 transfer from Washington -- could fill the void created by Williams' departure. Combine Watts with the return of preseason All-American JT Toppin and rising star Christian Anderson, and 30 wins doesn't seem far-fetched for a crew that had 28 victories last season.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Aidan Mahaney's dreams of starring at UConn after a two-year run as an All-WCC first-team performer at Saint Mary's fell short. But he could be the best player in the Big West this season. He's on a rebooted UCSB team, in a league that saw two 30-win teams (UC Irvine and UC San Diego) last season. The Gauchos could be next.
UCLA Bruins
We can't assume too much from an exhibition. But reigning Mountain West Player of the Year and Bruins newcomer Donovan Dent finished 4-for-16 and UCLA still managed to beat a quality San Diego State team. Mick Cronin has reached 30 wins three times in his coaching career, and this group has a manageable nonconference slate to help get it there. It will also enjoy the advantage of hosting Illinois and Purdue in their only matchups against those Big Ten contenders this season.
UConn Huskies
Dan Hurley's quest for a three-peat was derailed by a rough start to the 2024-25 season. Even then, his Huskies might have given Florida its toughest challenge on the way to winning the 2025 national title. Now, Alex Karaban returns for what feels like his 11th season, Solo Ball will continue his under-the-radar climb into the top guards in America conversation and Georgia transfer Silas Demary Jr. (13.5 PPG) joins the fold. A third 30-win campaign under Hurley seems imminent.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Takayo Siddle's team lost four starters but could be even better this season than its 27-win 2024-25 campaign. Improving under those circumstances is a tall task for any team but Nolan Hodge and Noah Ross -- who played well in the Seahawks' first-round loss to Texas Tech -- are back. Siddle also has a strong transfer group.