Roster Reloads: Charlotte Bobcats | Chicago Bulls | Houston Rockets | Atlanta Hawks | Memphis Grizzlies | Golden State Warriors
Toronto Raptors | Brooklyn Nets
It's hard not to think about the 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets without terms like "wanton excess" coming to mind.
Last season, the Nets paid around $95 million in salary and luxury tax to win 49 games, land a 4-seed in a mediocre conference, and end their season with a first-round defeat. This time around, Brooklyn will dole out in the neighborhood of $190 million for its roster, which won 44 games, a 6-seed in a bad conference and a second-round elimination. This kind of superfluous spending would make Caligula blush.
But hey, it's not our money, so the concern is not so much the tiny dent the massive payroll will make in Mikhail Prokhorov's Great Pyramid-sized heap of cash. It's about what comes next for the random collection of future Hall of Famers and former All-Stars that comprised this season's roster. Most of the time, disappointment is the outcome for so-called super rosters, but the league's mega-rich owners always seem tempted to try the formula. With limited financial flexibility, no draft picks of consequence and a core on the wrong side of the aging curve, is there any hope for a better outcome in 2015?
2014-15 Status quote baseline: 50.9 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The Nets were a team built to win now; in the process of achieving that, they mortgaged away almost every asset that had any chance of growing into something more than what it already is. The lone exceptions: Brook Lopez, who missed most of the season to injury, and rookie Mason Plumlee, whose play improved tremendously over the course of the campaign, showing the promise he was drafted upon as an elite rebounder and high-level athlete who finishes above the rim. Beyond that, the roster is a potpourri of overpaid vets who are in the twilight of their careers, although they did get an All-Star campaign from Joe Johnson. Deron Williams was inconsistent all season, showing flashes of brilliance coupled with disappearing stretches, most notably during their playoff series against the Toronto Raptors. The worry for Brooklyn is that while Lopez and Plumlee might take steps to improve in 2014-15, everyone else is a year older, and likely deteriorating in ability.
One area for growth is head coach Jason Kidd, who was off to a rocky start earlier this season, clashing with his hand-picked lead assistant Lawrence Frank after a month on the job and being the center of Spillgate (instructing Tyshawn Taylor to bump into him to spill his drink and secure an unofficial timeout). Since then, Kidd has improved as a leader and coach, and improved at the job, juggling unconventional lineups to exploit matchups.
Doolittle: You can look at the Nets' status quo baseline two ways. Brooklyn was outscored this season, making them fortunate to get to 44 wins. They also had a minutes-weighted team age of 30.3 years old, the third-oldest in the league. So the fact that their 2014-15 outlook starts at nearly 51 wins could mean one of three things: The Nets really underachieved last season, a full season of Brook Lopez will make quite an impact, or this roster as a group is considerably less than the sum of its parts. I'll go with door No. 3, with a caveat. Now with Paul Pierce headed to free agency, and Kevin Garnett perhaps heading to retirement, the Nets could lose a tremendous amount of value, ill fit or not. Given Brooklyn's lack of options in the personnel department, this is one projection that could go south in a hurry.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: This is the doomsday scenario many critics feared would happen to Brooklyn when they completed their acquisition of Garnett and Pierce: They've literally run out of assets to attract suitors in the trade market. By virtue of being a luxury-tax payer, the only mechanisms they have to sign free agents are via the $3 million taxpayer's mid-level exception and minimum deals, the latter of which they got great value out of with Andrei Kirilenko, Alan Anderson and Shaun Livingston. Still, these options are good for adding supporting cast, while Brooklyn needs better high-caliber contributions. Signing-and-trading Pierce away might be an avenue to add talent, but it seems unlikely that there will be teams looking to divest assets to acquire the veteran for a price point beyond the mid-level exception.
One option that allegedly might have been available earlier this season was a deal with Houston to trade for Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin, both of whom have contacts with cap hits of about $8.4 million but cash outs of almost $15 million apiece. Brooklyn is one of a handful of team that could swing the deal and not bat an eye at the extra cash expenditures.
Doolittle: Barring a creative trade, it's hard to see how the Nets could be shaken up in any significant way over the summer. Really, it just will come down to whether or not Pierce re-signs, and if he does, whether that and $12 million entices KG to come back for one more season. Even if both players leave, the Nets have more than $73 million in committed salary for next season. That doesn't include player options held by Kirilenko ($3.3 million), Andray Blatche ($1.4 million) and Anderson ($1.1 million). Kirilenko (0.2 WARP) didn't have much of a role, though that could change if Pierce leaves. Blatche had the Nets' third-best WARP (4.4) and can do better on the open market. Chances are, the Nets will have only the taxpayer mid-level exception to add a rotation-caliber player, and they may well have to use that to keep Livingston in the fold. Livingston didn't have glowing metrics (1.1 WARP, minus-0.3 RPM), but he was a solid, low-usage lineup fit alongside Williams.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but the Nets have painted themselves in a corner. There are three ways a team can improve its roster: via draft (they have no picks), via trade (they have few tradable assets) and via free agency (they have limited financial latitude to sign free agents). The only deals that will make themselves apparent will be the types in which they have to take on more toxic contracts in return, sort of how they acquired Marcus Thornton at the trade deadline. They could choose to dangle Plumlee, but that would be their last gasp of youth sacrificed at the altar.
Doolittle: The money issues are the big thing, but l'd like to see some creative thinking. The Nets need to get more athletic and they may have to improve a 19th-place finish in defensive efficiency without Garnett in the fold. Lopez will be a key factor in that, and Brooklyn will be keeping its fingers crossed that his foot problems are behind him. With the abilities of Johnson and Livingston to post up as well as hit from the perimeter, plus Lopez's versatile offensive repertoire, the Nets should be able to create mismatches on the offensive end on most possessions. The Nets finished 14th in assist rate, and it should be Kidd's priority to move into the top five. As for the defense, the Nets finished fifth in forced turnovers, and if Kirilenko returns, he fits right into that in a bigger role. Does Kidd -- short on experience -- have the vision to make this all work?
IV. The "Ideal" Roster
Doolitte: This assumes that Brooklyn is able to retain Livingston with its exception, which may not be possible. If he goes, I'd like to see the Nets pursue someone such as Charlotte's Josh McRoberts, whose excellent season may put him out of the reach of a taxpayer mid-level exception, but he'd be a good fit for a versatile lineup that can invert itself with post-up guards because of his ability to shoot from deep. His athleticism would play well next to Lopez, and would give Kidd the option of fielding a defensive unit of McRoberts, Jorge Gutierrez, Kirilenko and Plumlee to go with one of the team's scorers.
Beyond that, I'm assuming that Pierce and Garnett are gone, as is Blatche. Given the revised baseline, Brooklyn fans better hope they all opt to come back.