Roster Reloads: Charlotte Bobcats | Chicago Bulls | Houston Rockets | Atlanta Hawks | Memphis Grizzlies | Golden State Warriors
The Memphis Grizzlies' 2013-14 season came in three acts.
In Act 1, coach Dave Joeger tried to install a new, up-tempo offense to limited success. In Act 2, Marc Gasol got hurt and the team struggled and eventually went back to grind-it-out basketball. In the final act, the Grizzlies got Gasol back, added Courtney Lee and went on a furious three-month push that took them from the depths of the Western Conference standings to the seventh seed and a matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Years from now, Grizzlies fans will wonder what could have been had Gasol not gotten hurt, or at the very least had Randolph been active for Game 7 and Conley been healthy. Here's a look at what could be next.
2014-15 Status quote baseline: 45.3 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Gasol isn't the best player in the NBA, but he's on the short list of players who are most important for their teams. He's pivotal -- he acts as a conduit on offense and as an anchor on defense. At 29, he's entering the prime of his career and has a style of play that will allow him to keep up this level of productivity for the foreseeable future. Mike Conley is arguably the most underrated point guard in the league but still is improving. Tony Allen is the heart and soul of the team and best embodies the "grit and grind" personality and identity the Grizzlies have adopted. Zach Randolph is gradually declining but still is an extremely tough cover around the basket and a high-level rebounder. Lee and the injured Quincy Pondexter are defensive wings who double as offensive threats, while Nick Calathes steadily improved as a backup point guard all season long.
Doolittle: Randolph is aging, and a statistically washed-up Tayshaun Prince is grinding it to a halt. Prince finished last in the league with a minus-3.9 WARP this season, and at age 34, it's not going to get better. Memphis does have options, but Mike Miller and James Johnson will be free agents, while Pondexter is coming off a major injury. You don't think of the Grizzlies as being old, but they had the fifth-highest minutes-weighted age in the league. It makes you wonder how or if this group can get to a higher tier. On the plus side, Conley (10.0 projected WARP) should remain an All-Star-level point guard, and Gasol will provide more value than his projected 6.1 WARP if he stays healthy for a full season.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Randolph's decision with his $16.5 million player option will dictate much of what route Memphis will take this offseason. If he opts out, re-signing a more cap-friendly deal (for example, three years for $36 million) will give the Grizzlies the breathing room to make some additions while setting themselves up to be able to afford Gasol's next deal. If he opts in, the cost certainty allows Memphis to explore deals for him, perhaps to Los Angeles in a sign-and-trade for the other Gasol, Pau.
Re-signing impending free agent Miller has to be a priority, as he's the only pure shooter on the roster and, more importantly, one of the few pure shooters on the free-agent market. As Lee and Pondexter continue to grow as players, moving Allen might be an option on the table. Neither are the defender he is, but they both can hit a wide-open jump shot, and the total package might outweigh the one specialty Allen brings. Finally, Prince's $7.7 million expiring deal is a blight on the books, and the Grizzlies should try to dump him to a team with space; if not, a stretch waive should be seriously considered as an option worth pursuing.
Doolittle: Conley's production was worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $19 million last season in terms of WARP, making his actual cap number of $8.2 million one of the best values in the league. Memphis has him locked up for two more years and just over $19 million. Meanwhile, Gasol will be working on an expiring deal, and Randolph has his aforementioned player option. Obviously, that decision will dictate what direction the Memphis summer takes. Chances are Randolph will exercise that option, and Memphis will have to again attempt to improve at the margins. By this time next year, things might begin to look drastically different for the Grizzlies. While I wouldn't advocate a team this strong tear down just yet, it is a scenario worth exploring if it appears Gasol and/or Randolph could fetch a major return of young players and future assets.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Money always is an issue in Memphis, and cap management is always at the forefront of decision-making. The Grizzlies have to put themselves in a position where they'll have enough flexibility to pay Gasol a year from now and surround him with good, complementary talent while avoiding the luxury tax threshold. On the court, spacing is the area of biggest need; one can only imagine how much easier life would be for their front court if defenses were not able to collapse so freely and dare the Griz to defeat them from the perimeter.
That's why retaining Miller is so important, but the cost might be higher than expected because of the dearth of pure shooters on the market this summer (and the success of most of the high-priced shooters signed last year). Finally, Ed Davis showed promise as perhaps the power forward of the future; can he be retained for a reasonable price?
Doolittle: The Grizzlies finished 15th in offensive efficiency, the best they've done during their current run of success. The defense ranked seventh and finished in the top eight for the fourth straight season. Still, you have to feel like they peaked on that end with a second-place rank in 2012-13. There still is a lot more room for improvement on offense. Memphis slid from 29th to 30th in pace and once again ranked dead last in frequency of 3-point shots attempted. The Grizzlies had some deep threats on the roster, in Conley, Miller and Jon Leuer, and will get a boost in that area with Pondexter's return. Given a probable lack of financial flexibility, Johnson could really make the Memphis summer by perfecting a corner 3-point shot. If so, it would be hard to keep him off the court. Of course, the Grizzlies will need to re-sign him first.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster:
Elhassan: I love family reunions, so I decided reuniting the Gasol brothers would be the focus of my Grizzlies roster reload. Assuming Randolph opts-in, sending him to Los Angeles would give the Lakers the type of win-now talent that Kobe Bryant will no doubt demand, while the Grizzlies would be better positioned to take advantage of sibling synergies (not to mention Pau's ability to make plays from both high and low post, just like Marc). A flat, three-year, $39 million deal with partial guarantees on the final two years gives Memphis the cost certainty they need moving forward to account for Marc's free agency.
Meanwhile, a de-escalating three year, $24 million deal starting at $8.6 million for Davis gives the Griz future flexibility. Finally, perhaps a bit optimistically, getting Miller to agree to a deal starting at $3.8 million of the midlevel exception leaves $1.5 million to sign Cartier Martin, another gritty defensive player who can knock down the 3-ball, giving them flexibility to pursue Allen deals.