Roster Reloads: Charlotte Bobcats | Chicago Bulls | Houston Rockets | Atlanta Hawks | Memphis Grizzlies | Golden State Warriors | Toronto Raptors
A season of tumult finally came crashing down, and an offseason of questions commences. After a massive retooling in 2013 following an exciting playoff run, expectations in the Bay Area were for the Warriors to compete for home-court advantage in an extremely tough Western Conference and perhaps be the dark-horse pick to make it to the Finals. Instead, a sixth-seed placing in the playoff bracket can be construed as a disappointment despite the fact it took 51 wins to get there (Golden State's first 50-win season in 20 years).
Criticisms of coach Mark Jackson's offense being unimaginative continued, and it often felt like he was driving a Ferrari with the hand break on; the only time it would release was during the playoffs when forced to go smaller lineups due to injuries. Additionally, the dismissal of two assistant coaches a few weeks before the playoffs only served to bring more scrutiny and turmoil around the organization. Where do they head from here?
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 49.2 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Before the season started, I said that the Warriors' season hinged on the health of two players: Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut, the two most responsible for the team's excellence on the offensive and defensive end of the court, respectively. It probably isn't far-fetched to speculate that the Warriors would have stood a great chance at upsetting an emotionally drained Los Angeles Clippers club had Bogut been healthy for the playoffs. Still, he's under contract for the next three years at a reasonable AAV of $12 million per year, a discount that was realized because of his propensity to be injured.
Curry continued his ascent to the upper echelon of the league's elite and solidifying his place as arguably the best shooter off the dribble in the history of the game. Klay Thompson also made huge strides toward becoming a more complete player, creating more off the dribble and refining his post game, while doubling as one of Golden State's most consistent defenders.
Meanwhile, David Lee seems to have hit a plateau in his development and likely will start a slow decline over the next two years of his deal. Harrison Barnes hit a sophomore slump that submarined his value from promising up-and-coming player to draft bust who has been outplayed by 2012 draft counterpart (and second-round pick) Draymond Green.
Doolittle: The Warriors ranked 12th in minutes-weighted age this season and will likely be in the middle of the pack in that area in 2014-15. That's a pretty good place to be for a wanna-be-contender, as a team age of 27 or 28 means that the bulk of your minutes are going to players in their primes. The average is driven upwards by Bogut, Lee and Andre Iguodala, while Green, Klay Thompson and Barnes all have room for growth.
As for Curry, he'll be 27 next season and should remain an elite-level core player for the foreseeable future as long as he stays healthy. Thompson is forecast for 3.4 WARP, and while that doesn't give him enough credit for his on-ball defense, it's worth noting that his defensive RPM was basically neutral. He's a great shooter, and his 41.7 success rate backs that up, but Thompson needs to have a greater overall tangible impact to become a true foundation piece.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: The Warriors are in an interesting position, being one of the few teams that can offer a combination of quality, win-now talent and youth with upside in trade. No trade target fits Golden State more ideally than Kevin Love, with his rebounding, passing and, of course, shooting. The Warriors would greatly benefit from his ability to space the floor, giving them one more drop-dead shooter on a team that lacks shooting outside of its starting backcourt. A packaged centered around Lee and Barnes might move the needle, given Lee's status as a stat-stuffer and multiple All-Star and Barnes' reputation as an underutilized or misused lottery talent.
Thompson is eligible for his rookie extension, and given his progression and excellent fit alongside Curry, it seems like a foregone conclusion he'll be locked into a long-term deal soon. Beyond that, the core is locked up: Bogut, Iguodala, Curry and Green are all locked in for the foreseeable future and form the nucleus of a win-now outfit. Steve Blake was a nice fit as backup point guard and would be a good candidate to return, as was Jermaine O'Neal at backup center, particularly after Bogut went down. Perhaps the biggest change will be the sweeping of a coaching staff that has had more than its fair share of controversy. From the dismissals of Brian Scalabrine and Darren Erman, to Jackson's questionable play calling that overemphasizes isolation plays and post-ups, to his almost evangelical religious beliefs that sometimes bleed over to the business side of the game, Jackson has rubbed many the wrong way. This first-round ouster with a roster that, on paper at least, should have achieved more during the regular season might give Golden State's management the out they needed.
Doolittle: Part of Jackson's problem might have been unrealistic expectations. While the Warriors drew some support before the season as a favorite in the West, the consensus was they'd do what they did -- finish sixth. Clearly there is discord, distrust and other dis-issues there, so perhaps a change is in order. Still, I wouldn't go so far as to call for Jackson's job. That said, it's not uncommon for a defensive-minded coach to be tuned out after a couple of seasons. The Warriors could use a better X's-and-O's coach for the offense, because there is no way a team that shoots so well should have finished 12th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks had a more efficient offense than Golden State. If Jackson can hire an offensive assistant and trust him to do his job, that might do the trick. I hear Mike D'Antoni is available.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Trading Lee is easier said than done. He's got a lot of good will built in the community and with ownership, as he was the team's first star and the beginning of the rebuilding process. Also, his contract can be cumbersome, with another $30.5 million over the next two years, so there's a good chance that trading him will take more than just Barnes as a sweetener.
Another "easier said than done" task is firing Jackson: For all the friction he caused between himself and management, he has the full and undying support of most of his locker room, including the most important person: Curry. Whoever has to follow in Jackson's footsteps as head coach will have to win over a locker room that will likely be distraught over the firing of "their guy" and be skeptical of the successor.
Doolittle: Jackson's status has to be solved, and quickly, so the team can plan accordingly. Personnel-wise, the Warriors are in pretty good shape if Barnes can find a productive niche. Thompson will be up for an extension soon, so in a couple of years the cap is going to look messy with four players earning eight figures -- possibly five if Thompson blows up. Lee is the most replaceable of the starters, but as Elhassan says, his contract is going to be the hardest one to move. His winning percentage fell from .540 to .513 this season even though his usage and shooting indicators remained stable. A decline in floor play by a 31-year-old is troubling. Since the Warriors won't have the capability of really investing in their bench, it makes it that much more imperative that Barnes find his way.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster
Elhassan: Let's swing for the fences and assume that a Kevin Love deal can be made! The Warriors would likely have to mortgage several future first-rounders in the process, as well as assume the final year of Alexey Shved, who has fallen out of favor in Minnesota due to his inability to consistently knock down the perimeter jumper, among other ailments. Love allows the team to play the spread style Curry so desperately needs to truly maximize his potential, without sacrificing the rebounding, passing and (to some extent) post play Lee brought to the table. Steve Blake returns for the biannual exception, with a player option on his second year.