Roster Reload: Indiana Pacers

Roster Reloads: Charlotte Bobcats | Chicago Bulls | Houston Rockets | Atlanta Hawks | Memphis Grizzlies | Golden State Warriors
Toronto Raptors | Portland Trail Blazers | Brooklyn Nets | Washington Wizards | Indiana Pacers | Oklahoma City Thunder

The Indiana Pacers' late-season slide began with a seemingly benign home loss to Golden State on March 4. Before that the Pacers were a league-best 46-13, but proceeded to stumble to a 10-13 finish. The slide nearly became a full-blown collapse when the Pacers fell behind both Atlanta and Washington in the playoffs, but when Indiana beat Miami in Game 1 of the East finals, it seemed like order had been restored.

This is where the Pacers had been pointed all along. Unfortunately, Indiana was so thoroughly throttled for the duration of the series, that the enigma of Indiana's post-All-Star stagger has again taken center stage. Under Frank Vogel, the Pacers have posted their second-highest three-year winning percentage in club history. The best three-year stretch was 1998 to 2000. The coach for those seasons? Larry Bird, who as the Pacers' team president now must decide whether to stay the course with a club that veered wildly off the title-contending path it once seemed to be on.

2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 44.7 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)

I. Main assets

Elhassan: Indiana has much of its core under contract; whether that's a good or bad thing depends on your point of view. Paul George started to come into his own this season as an all-round talent, but was ultimately incapable of handling the burden of being the main offensive weapon and "set the table" guy for his teammates. He's still a fantastic talent, and quite possibly the best wing defender in the league, but clearly needs help offensively. Lance Stephenson took a big step forward as a utility offensive player with defensive prowess, but similarly lost focus and discipline as the season wore on. Roy Hibbert started the year almost as the de facto Defensive Player of the Year (and a clear thorn in the side of the Miami Heat), but underwent a massive regression over the second half of the season that gives rise to serious concern about two more years and more than $30 million allotted to him, especially given his limitations versus teams with stretch bigs. Similarly, the money devoted to David West ($24 million over two years) seems to outpace his contributions to the team, no trivial matter for a small-market team intent on staying under the tax threshold.

Doolittle: The Pacers will look a little better in a fully realized projection that better models their team defense, but nevertheless they have a number of players who don't have glowing forecasts. George projects to 11.5 WARP, down from his 13.7 mark for the 2013-14 season, because regression in his numbers outstrips his career pattern, but he figures to remain an All-Star performer. It's a similar tale for Stephenson (forecast for 1.4 WARP), who also made a drastic leap. If those players repeat their performances from this season, it pushes the Indiana baseline over 50 wins. However, the Pacers' second unit projects for a combined 0.0 WARP -- zero. That's got to improve. Upgrading the bench seems to be an annual item on the Indiana summer to-do list. Overall, the Pacers are the 10th-oldest team in the league, and they aren't likely to get younger: Indiana's only selection in the June draft is No. 57.

II. Shake it up

Elhassan: Indiana must have breathed a sigh of relief upon hearing the new cap and tax projections for 2014-15, expected to be around $63 million and $77 million, respectively. This gives the Pacers roughly $9 million to spend on retaining Stephenson without crossing the tax threshold. I don't see any way Evan Turner can be retained. He was a poor fit offensively, and a defensive sieve, but as a restricted free agent, I wonder what (if any) sign-and-trade value he holds. Luis Scola's contract is only partially guaranteed, and at a $4.9 million cap hit, he's a likely candidate for waivers. The resulting space could be used to try to upgrade the backup power forward position with a more athletic, scoring big.

Doolittle: First, I agree with Kevin Pelton, and would not make a coaching change unless Bird really wants to take the job himself. Vogel has been a huge part of Indiana's rise into contention, excelling as a defensive strategist, motivator and in developing players. That doesn't absolve him for his part in Indiana's slide. After March 4, the Pacers ranked ninth in defensive efficiency and dead last on offense, and did so with a healthy roster -- it's not like they collapsed because of an injury to George. Vogel also deserves blame for his inability to solve Atlanta's 3-point barrage.

At the same time, there were roster issues at play, which falls on Bird. The trade for Evan Turner hurt the Pacers. First, Stephenson's game went into decline after the move, and the loss of Granger hurt the Pacers in the Atlanta series -- he would have allowed Vogel to play small, moving West to center and using Granger at the 4. Even in his diminished state, Granger ranked in the 94th percentile as a defender, according to Synergy Sports Technologies. And it's not like these things should have been a surprise. With a more productive bench that better complements their starting lineup, the Pacers can be a more adaptable postseason team next season.

III. Obstacles to success

Elhassan: As I mentioned earlier, the rising cap and tax give Indiana a lot more breathing room and remove the threat of going into punitive tax territory. That said, breathing room doesn't necessarily mean all ducks will line up, so Stephenson's market value may inflate, at which point overpays to Hibbert, West and George Hill start to look very short-sighted. Additionally, the furor around Vogel's job security only serves to overcomplicate issues.

Doolittle: They need to fix the bench. Luis Scola's deal for $4.8 million next season is partially guaranteed, and I'd let him walk. He's redundant to West, provides little more than empty jump shooting and will be 35. I'd keep the starting lineup intact -- despite everything, it's been the best lineup in the league over the past three years. Retaining Stephenson -- an unrestricted free agent -- may have gotten cheaper with his late-season drop-off, so I'm knocking $1 million off Amin's AAV projection from February. Turner, a restricted free agent? Gone. That leaves Bird around $11 million to fill three second-unit slots while remaining under the tax line the Pacers have vowed to never cross.

IV. An "Ideal" Roster