The NBA calendar keeps flying by, as the trade deadline passed with minimal activity and contending teams are looking for their rosters to jel in anticipation of deep playoff runs.
That said, enough has happened since the unveiling of Big Board 2.0 back in November to warrant significant changes throughout the board:
• Danny Granger has also dropped off the list after a rusty return to action that has seen him struggle to score efficiently. With his buyout complete, Granger still has time to boost his value back up by contributing to a playoff team down the stretch, but it appears unlikely that he'll find enough playing time to impress would-be suitors this summer to pony up big cash.
• The most notable omission from Big Board 3.0 is probably Dwyane Wade. At this juncture, I do not believe Wade will opt out of the two years and almost $42 million he has guaranteed. The only logical explanation would be if he believed he could sign a three- or four-year deal that would net him a significantly larger amount, and given his battles with injuries, that does not appear likely.
The following is my third ranking of 2014's free agents. Remember, this is sorted by the AAV (average annual value) of the new contracts I believe each player deserves under the rules of the CBA. To make my contract value estimates, I used many of the same factors I used as a member of the Phoenix Suns' front office: age, injury history, value of recent comparable player contracts, irreplaceability of skill set, contribution to winning, history of production, fit with style and culture, marketability and current cap situation, among other things.
Remember, this is not a ranking of the best free agents -- it lines them up based on projected AAV; and the AAVs listed below represent my estimation of the approximate value of each player, not a prediction of what the player will receive on the market in 2014. (Values denoted in millions of dollars.) The contract valuations for many of these players are almost guaranteed to change, as their 2013-14 performances will affect their worth, but it is important to get a gauge of where the different prospects stand.
ETO=Early Termination Option, PO=Player Option, UFA=Unrestricted Free Agent, RFA=Restricted Free Agent
1. Carmelo Anthony | SF | ETO | 2013-14 Team: New York Knicks
Anthony
2013-14 Salary: $21.4 million | Suggested AAV: $23.5 million/year, three years
As the Knicks' season continues down the drain and turmoil engulfs Madison Square Garden, the idea of Anthony leaving New York has picked up traction. In a way, he's done his part as a scorer, being extremely efficient with his touches and rebounding at a career-high rate. It's still a superstar's league, and while he's not on the same level as the LeBrons and Durants, he's still an elite talent.
2. LeBron James | SF | ETO | 2013-14 Team: Miami Heat
James
2013-14 Salary: $19.1 million | Suggested AAV: $23.1 million/year, five years, ETO on fifth year
You could make the argument that the Heat could seek to collaborate with James to take another pay cut to ensure Miami's ability to reload this aging roster, but I'd err on the side of caution and just give LeBron the maximum allowable amount of money for the maximum allowable years, with any option he desires.
3. Chris Bosh | PF/C | ETO | 2013-14 Team: Miami Heat
Bosh
2013-14 Salary: $19.1 million | Suggested AAV: $20.1 million/year, 5 years, partial guarantee on final year
There has been some speculation within league circles that Bosh is more willing to test the open market than previously expected; that shouldn't stop Miami from being able to offer him a deal that guarantees him more money than any other team can, while still retaining some flexibility.
4. Dirk Nowitzki | PF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Dallas Mavericks
Nowitzki
2013-14 Salary: $22.7 million | Suggested AAV: $15.0 million/year, two years, player option on second year
Just when you thought he was slowing down, Nowitzki comes back with a strong season, shooting a career high eFG% and flirting with a 20+ PPG, 50-40-90 season. He's said he wants to come back for two to three more seasons, so this deal allows him to gauge whether he feels like going on while still affording the Mavs the flexibility to add surrounding talent.
5. Greg Monroe | C | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Detroit Pistons
2013-14 Salary: $4.1 million | Suggested AAV: $12.5 million/year, four years
Monroe
Monroe's season hasn't been the resounding statement he'd probably hoped it would be after failing to reach an agreement for an extension last October, but it bears mentioning that he's been able to maintain relatively even production despite playing in a pretty questionable situation. At 23 years old, he's got a world of potential, although his defense lags far behind his offense. This deal is framed against the comparable extensions signed by DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors.
6. Zach Randolph | PF | PO | 2013-14 Team: Memphis Grizzlies
2013-14 Salary: $18.2 million | Suggested AAV: $12.0 million/year, three years, partial guarantee in final year
Randolph
I dropped Randolph's value in large part because of the struggles he and the Grizzlies endured in Marc Gasol's absence. While Randolph was able to score the ball and his rebounding improved, his field goal percentage plummeted to below 42 percent and the team fell behind in the standings. The good news is since Gasol's return, "Z-Bo" has gone back to his usual, efficient self and the team has been on a roll. But it does highlight his place as a complementary piece. The new estimate reflects this, and is based on recent deals signed by David West and Kevin Garnett.
7. Eric Bledsoe | PG | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns
2013-14 Salary: $2.6 million | Suggested AAV: $10.2 million/year, four years (incentives to reach $11.5 million per year)
Bledsoe
There are two ways to view Bledsoe's injury. You can either see it as another element of uncertainty that will temper potential offers given the small sample size of games played and concern for the health of his knee, or you believe he's proven everything he needs to and has earned his next contract. I think he's done more of the latter, pushing him closer to the next stratosphere of young point guards (Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson). My suggested contract would give him the opportunity to prove he is of that caliber.
8. Tim Duncan | PF/C | PO | 2013-14 Team: San Antonio Spurs
Duncan
2013-14 Salary: $10.4 million | Suggested AAV: $10.0 million/year, two years, player option on second year
Nothing has changed here, other than recent comments from ESPN analyst George Karl that Duncan might retire after this season. At this point, I am prepared to say the Spurs and Duncan can continue their productive relationship on into perpetuity.
9. Pau Gasol | F/C | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Gasol
2013-14 Salary: $19.3 million | Suggested AAV: $10.3 million/year, three years
The 2010 Gasol might not be walking through that door, but if he can continue to channel January 2014 (20.8 PPG 11.9 RPG, 51% FG), Gasol might secure himself a strong deal. Not getting traded probably hurt him more than any other prospective free agent on this list, so he's got to make the most of his remaining days as a Laker.
10. Gordon Hayward | SF | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Utah Jazz
Hayward
2013-14 Salary: $3.5 million | Suggested AAV: $9 million/year, four years
Hayward has struggled with his shooting touch this season (3P% below 30 percent), but there will be no shortage of suitors willing to take a chance on him, particularly if he doesn't have to be a main offensive option. His size, age and skill level all make him a worthwhile investment, although his valuation gets knocked down to reflect the precipitous drop in shooting efficiency.
11. Lance Stephenson | SG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Indiana Pacers
2013-14 Salary: $1.0 million | Suggested AAV: $9.5 million/year, four years
Stephenson
In November, I said Granger's early injury problems were good news for Stephenson, who would have a chance to improve his value. I didn't see this much improvement coming, as Stephenson has become one of the most exciting young guards in the league. Using DeMar DeRozan's contract as a comparable puts Stephenson at $38 million over four years for an AAV of $9.5 million. Still, I believe he is more valuable in the confines of the Pacers' organization, where there are multiple checks and balances to keep him in line than he would be in most other franchises.
12. Rudy Gay | SF | PO | 2013-14 Team: Sacramento Kings
2013-14 Salary: $17.9 million | Suggested AAV: $9 million/year, three years, player option on third year
Gay
Gay has been marginally better in Sacramento than he was in Toronto, most notably shooting better around the rim. But his defense leaves a lot to be desired, and he hasn't regained the type of perimeter shooting efficiency he exhibited at the beginning of his current deal. If I were advising Gay, I'd tell him not to opt out, but if he does, a three-year, $27 million with a player option might be too generous.
13. Kyle Lowry | PG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Toronto Raptors
2013-14 Salary: $6.2 million | Suggested AAV: $8.5 million/year, three years
Lowry
Along with Stephenson, arguably no player has increased his market value this season as much as Lowry did, playing at what should have been considered an All-Star level and being the main driving force behind Toronto's ascension into the playoff picture (although both of those facts should be tempered by the reality that he's done it in the Eastern Conference). His caustic personality hasn't gone away, and he is 27, so he doesn't get the full bump to an eight-figure AAV.
14. Marcin Gortat | C | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Washington Wizards
Gortat
2013-14 Salary: $7.7 million | Suggested AAV: $8.3 million/year, three years
Gortat has performed up to expectation in Washington, but his value will be tested while Nené sits because of injury. He has a very real opportunity to add to his valuation by being able to step his production up.
15. Emeka Okafor | C | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns
2013-14 Salary: $14.5 million | Suggested AAV: $8.3 million/year, three years, 50 percent guarantee on first year, 0 percent guarantee on second and third years
Okafor
Okafor appears to be destined to miss the entire 2013-14 season. Whether this is due to the seriousness of the injury or the desire of the Suns to continue to reap the benefit of the insurance benefits is irrelevant. His value in free agency is compromised to some degree, but if healthy, he is a solid starting center. By giving only a partial guarantee in the first year, Okafor is able to prove that he can return to his prior form.
16. Luol Deng | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Deng
2013-14 Salary: $14.2 million | Suggested AAV: $7.5 million/year, three years, team option on third year
There will be a bidding war for Deng among several teams vying for his services, including his former team, Chicago. I still maintain my skeptical assessment of Deng's long-term effectiveness, and his performance in Cleveland thus far hasn't inspired confidence that he can provide All-Star level production going forward.
17. Spencer Hawes | C | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Hawes
2013-14 Salary: $6.6 million | Suggested AAV: $7.4 million/year, three years
Hawes maximized his time in Philadelphia and has a chance to continue to do the same in Cleveland as they make their playoff push. He's in rare company as a true stretch big who shoots better than 37.5 percent from beyond the arc (minimum two attempts per game) and posts a DREB% greater than 15 percent, a position that's becoming more important as spacing becomes paramount.
18. Channing Frye | PF/C | PO | 2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns
2013-14 Salary: $6.4 million | Suggested AAV: $7.4 million/year, three years
Frye
When Frye started the season, no one could have predicted that opting out of the last year of his deal would even be considered; after all, he was coming off missing the entire 2012-13 season with a heart condition. Instead, Frye has been a major contributing factor for Phoenix's renaissance as an elite 3-point shooter who also has developed into an underrated post and team defender. Frye is also in the "stretch big" club with Hawes.
19. Ed Davis | PF | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Davis
2013-14 Salary: $3.2 million | Suggested AAV: $5.5 million/year, three years
Davis' production has been encouraging: an efficient scorer around the rim (almost 68 FG% at the rim), an above-average shooter in midrange and an excellent rebounder. He hasn't had the minutes to post the type of gaudy numbers that can drive up his market value, so there might be an opportunity to lock him into a value deal.
20. Trevor Ariza | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Washington Wizards
2013-14 Salary: $7.7 million | Suggested AAV: $5.5 million/year, three years
Ariza
Ariza went from being an invaluable piece in a championship team as an early 3-and-D player, to an overpaid player with an inflated self-opinion, to back to fulfilling the role he should have never left behind. One of the best corner 3-point shooters in the league (44 percent corners 3's), Ariza should be in demand for contending teams looking to upgrade their perimeter defense without sacrificing spacing. A three-year deal worth $16.5 million represents full midlevel exception.
21. Evan Turner | SF | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Indiana Pacers
Turner
2013-14 Salary: $6.7 million | Suggested AAV: $5.5 million/year, three years
Turner proved he could rack up raw per-game stats in Philly's uptempo offense with little repercussion on the defensive end. Now he has to prove he can subjugate his game to a team with something on the line other than lottery balls. If he struggles to assimilate within the Pacers' concept, his value can take a serious hit.
22. Shawn Marion | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Dallas Mavericks
Marion
2013-14 Salary: $9.3 million | Suggested AAV: $5.4 million/year, two years, player option on second year
Marion's defensive versatility and ability to manufacture scoring opportunities without having plays run for him can be a useful addition to a contending team. He's getting up there in age, so anything longer than a two-year deal would probably be too long a commitment.
23. Paul Pierce | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Brooklyn Nets
Pierce
2013-14 Salary: $15.3 million | Suggested AAV: $5.4 million/year, two years, player option on second year
Another player in mercenary mode, Pierce has lost a step since last year and isn't shooting as well, but he's still a savvy scorer and an underrated playmaker. He can't be one of your top 3 scorers anymore, but he can be an asset off the bench for a team looking to make the next step.
24. Thabo Sefolosha | SG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: OKC Thunder
Sefolosha
2013-14 Salary: $3.9 million | Suggested AAV: $5.0 million/year, three years, partial guarantee on third year
Oklahoma City's resident 3-and-D guy hasn't matched the 3P% levels of the last two years, but he's been automatic from the left corner (41 percent corner 3's) and has shot better than 38 percent on above the break 3-pointers over the last two months. Partially guaranteeing the final year of the deal gives the team some flexibility should he start to experience some slippage.
25. Avery Bradley | PG/SG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Boston Celtics
Bradley
2013-14 Salary: $2.5 million | Suggested AAV: $4.5 million/year, three years
Bradley is one of the NBA's premier backcourt defensive players, but he poses a bit of an offensive dilemma in that he lacks the playmaking creativity to play point guard and isn't a reliable enough shooter to play off ball. A comparable would be Tony Allen's four-year, $20 million deal, but Bradley's smaller size doesn't give him as much versatility defensively as Allen.
26. Mario Chalmers | PG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Miami Heat
Chalmers
2013-14 Salary: $4.0 million | Suggested AAV: $4.5 million/year, two years
He's been the butt of many jokes over the years, but he has been the perfect complement for the Heat as a good defender, reliable 3-point shooter and fearless competitor. He's doing a better job this year of being aggressive offensively and creating off the dribble. A two-year, $9 million deal for Chalmers is appropriate for a third-rotation guard role.
27. Patty Mills | PG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: San Antonio Spurs
Mills
2013-14 Salary: $1.3 million | Suggested AAV: $4.0 million/year, two years
In what has become a recurring theme with the Spurs, a player has stepped up during the absence of another and has been individually productive while maintaining team performance. Mills has always been a terrific shooter (career 3P% just under 40 percent), but he's improved at playmaking, particularly out of pick and roll, even though the numbers might not necessarily bear out.
28. Andrei Kirilenko | SF | PO | 2013-14 Team: Brooklyn Nets
Kirilenko
2013-14 Salary: $3.2 million | Suggested AAV: $3.5 million/year, three years, partial guarantee on third year
While injuries kept Kirilenko sidelined for much of the start of the season, and his stats have been pedestrian at best, his return to the floor played a major role in the Nets' turnaround this calendar year, and his on/off rating (plus-2.4 Net Rating on versus minus-3.5 off court) is indicative of his impact. Still, his age and low traditional averages take away much of any leverage he'll have in free agency.
29. Steve Blake | PG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Golden State Warriors
Blake
2013-14 Salary: $4.0 million | Suggested AAV: $3.3 million/year, two years
Blake's trade to Golden State gives him the opportunity that wasn't afforded to former teammate Gasol: to play meaningful minutes down the stretch and perhaps in the playoffs, a golden opportunity to play up his value. He's the sort of steady hand and good shooter that any team could use, and at $3.3 million AAV, he can be had via taxpayer midlevel exception,
30. P.J. Tucker | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns
Tucker
2013-14 Salary: $884,293 | Suggested AAV: $3.0 million/year, three years, non-guaranteed third year
Another pleasant surprise for the Phoenix Suns this season has been Tucker's development of a corner 3-point shot -- he's hitting 39 percent on the year. He's a tough perimeter defender and has also been a boost on the boards.