The Oklahoma City Thunder nearly revisited their 2012 postseason series victory over the San Antonio Spurs, but fell just short in a heartbreaking six games in the 2014 Western Conference finals. The team rebounded from a 2-0 deficit with the heroic return of an injured Serge Ibaka while Kevin Durant played like the regular-season MVP and Russell Westbrook successfully bounced back from the first major injury of his career and lived up to his billing as the guy who makes Oklahoma City unstoppable and predictably beatable all at the same time.
Head coach Scott Brooks has had his job security questioned after widespread criticism of an offensive system too simplistic to take full advantage of the talents of two of the top 10 players in the NBA. Nonetheless, this team still looks like a perennial contender that could be even better with a couple of subtractions, rather than additions.
2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 59.4 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Durant was marvelous once again this season, and at only 25, it's only a matter of time before he overtakes LeBron James as the best player on the planet. In a season missing his running mate Westbrook for long stretches, Durant elevated his game and brought a consistency that bordered on historic, scoring 25 or more points in 41 consecutive games at one stretch.
Westbrook was no slouch himself, completing a full recovery from multiple knee surgeries and appearing no worse for wear, regaining his quickness and explosiveness as well as his fire and desire. His decision-making is as questionable as ever, particularly late in games, but also at 25, he's got a long career of physically overmatching his opponent ahead of him. Serge Ibaka has grown as a more savvy defender, no longer biting on the slightest upfakes or getting caught ball-watching and losing track of his man, even though his improvements have led to drops in his box score stats. He's also continued to expand his range out to becoming a very reliable 3-point threat. Outside those big three, the Thunder got good development, progression and contributions from young bench players like Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III and even rookie Andre Roberson.
Doolittle: No team can match the star trio of Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, who combined for 40.9 WARP in 2013-14. That means OKC would have a 50-plus win baseline even if every other player on the roster was replacement level. Unfortunately, that was very nearly the case, as outside of the big three, the rest of the Thunder added just three wins. ATH is way too hard on Jackson, but beyond him, the supporting cast is very young, which is why Caron Butler was brought on late in the season. All of Oklahoma City's role players are either past their prime, or haven't reached it. It's kind of an awkward mix, but the collective youth of players like Jones, Jackson, Steven Adams and Lamb offers hope that the Thunder can reload via player development.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: If ever there were a team that would benefit from addition by subtraction, it's the Thunder. Brooks' insistence to rely on vets, Derek Fisher and Kendrick Perkins, whose reputations outweighed their production played a large part in their demise. Oklahoma City would benefit greatly from diverting minutes from them to Jackson (who is eligible for a rookie extension this fall), Lamb and Adams, who came along nicely as a backup center.
Thabo Sefolosha is also a free agent, and he's been a pivotal part of their perimeter defense, but regressed as a 3-point shooter in his contract year. That might give the Thunder the opportunity to bring him back at a discounted rate, affording them some cash to acquire another productive backup 4/5. But any discussion about roster changes begins and ends with Perkins: The Thunder either need to bite the bullet and amnesty him, or attach a couple of picks to him and ship him to a team with space (ironically, this is what Oklahoma City used to do to other teams: squeeze first-round picks in return for accepting vets on toxic deals).
Doolittle: With Fisher likely retiring, the Thunder should seek to retain Butler, who fit in well in his new career as a veteran shooting specialist. So you hope to build a bench blending his experience with that of Nick Collison, and hope that Lamb, Jones and Roberson can outperform their combined forecast of about 0.2 WARP. Beyond that, I'm amnestying Perkins for sure, freeing $9.4 million from the OKC cap number and even better getting his minus-3.0 WARP projection off the spreadsheet. Adams will have to drastically lower his 7.5 percent foul rate and 22.5 percent turnover rate to become a starter, but time is on his side. He'll help anchor the second unit along with Jackson, the sixth man.
Sefolosha is a free agent, so the Thunder can upgrade two-fifths of their starting lineup. If they amnesty Perkins, they can do so with a stopgap center and a more dynamic 2-guard, and they'll be able to use a full midlevel exception without entering tax territory -- provided they don't dip below the cap. Chris Kaman could be a cost-efficient option, and Brandon Rush could be a 3-and-defense fit at shooting guard.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: First, as it is for most small-market teams, the concept of amnestying a player (paying him to go away, essentially) is a taboo topic. Is ownership willing to foot the bill? If not, it could prove more costly to find a trade partner for Perkins. Second, the elephant in the room is the Durant-Westbrook dynamic: Would they be better off playing separately? It's hard to justify breaking up two of the best players in a league where multiple stars seem to be the prerequisite for competing. That brings us to Point 3: coaching. Brooks has done a good job developing this roster, but he might have maximized his abilities. A more structured offense might alleviate some of the struggles that Durant and Westbrook experience, especially against sophisticated defenses like Memphis'. Would adding a high-level X's and O's assistant coach suffice? Or do the Thunder need wholesale change in the coaching chair?
Doolittle: Hierarchy is important, and by more clearly establishing that Oklahoma City is Durant's team, not Westbrook's, then perhaps that in itself could get the Thunder to a better place than a first-round exit. It's possible to win a title with two players using more than 30 percent of a team's possessions, but it's rare. The Kobe-Shaq Lakers, the Shaq-Wade Heat and one version of the LeBron-Wade Heat have done it, but that's it. Westbrook's usage rate was 37 percent over the first five games against Memphis. That's one of the highest playoff usage rates in history. Which would be fine, if he weren't playing alongside the best offensive player in the world in Durant.
The Ideal Roster
Elhassan: I've chosen a more conservative route to retooling the Thunder, especially in light of my decision to amnesty Perkins. Although the payroll is extremely low at about $64 million, there's still another $9.4 million in cash going to Perkins' checking account. This still gives Oklahoma City considerable flexibility in terms of spending for wing defenders Rush and Sefolosha, or spending more for a Luol Deng perhaps. Adreian Payne as the 21st overall pick (owed to OKC by Dallas) would be a nice addition as a backup 4/5 who can shoot the ball from distance and rebound as well.