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          NBA free-agency moves: Rating every deal

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          Marks: Warriors won't make playoffs next year (1:28)

          Bobby Marks argues that after losing Kevin Durant to free agency and with Klay Thompson out for an extended period, the current Warriors roster will not make the playoffs next season. (1:28)

          • Kevin PeltonJul 3, 2019, 03:54 PM ET
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            • Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
            • Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
            • Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
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          What do the latest moves in NBA free agency mean for every team, and what's next across the league?

          On Day 1, many teams quickly reached agreements with star players, including the Brooklyn Nets (Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving), Boston Celtics (Kemba Walker) and Philadelphia 76ers (Tobias Harris and Al Horford). The action continued on Day 2 and Day 3, including finalized sign-and-trades for D'Angelo Russell (Golden State Warriors) and Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat).

          You can find team-by-team analysis on all of the movement here.

          Note: The latest updates will be posted here, with teams sorted alphabetically. The most recent additions include Markieff Morris to the Pistons, Alec Burks to the Thunder and T.J. McConnell to the Pacers.

          More: Projecting the starting salary for every available free agent

          Dallas Mavericks

          1. Agreed to a reported two-year, $7 million deal with center Boban Marjanovic

          Dallas is an interesting destination for the 7-foot-3 Marjanovic, one of the league's most productive players on a per-minute basis. He averaged 22.3 points and 14.0 rebounds per 36 last season while making 62.4% of his 2-point attempts.

          You don't necessarily think of the lumbering Marjanovic as a pick-and-roll player, but he set 52.3 ball screens per 100 possessions last season according to Second Spectrum tracking -- more than incumbent Mavericks center Dwight Powell's 45.6 per 100 -- and the 76ers and Clippers scored more points per chance on those plays (0.94) than the 0.91 points per chance Dallas had on DeAndre Jordan pick-and-rolls.

          The depth of the Mavericks' frontcourt, which also includes re-signed Maxi Kleber and Kristaps Porzingis, should put Marjanovic in the comfortable role of fourth big man. Dallas won't have to rely on Marjanovic every night, minimizing the damage teams can do by making him defend pick-and-pops against stretch bigs at the other end of the court, but can extend his minutes on nights in which he has favorable matchups. Adding depth also will help the Mavericks manage Porzingis' minutes as he comes back after missing the entire 2018-19 season due to a torn ACL.

          The price was right for Marjanovic, who could fit into Dallas' $4.8 million room exception depending how much of the team's remaining $22 million in cap space gets used. The only bad news here is that Marjanovic will no longer team with Tobias Harris, with whom he'd been traded first from Detroit to the LA Clippers and then on to Philadelphia. Harris re-signed with the Sixers, breaking up the Bobi and Tobi Show.

          Detroit Pistons

          1. Agreed to a reported deal with forward Markieff Morris

          Morris ended up hitting the market at the wrong time after a 2018-19 season that was disappointing in large part because of a rare injury to his spine that caused neck pain and cost him nearly two months of action. When Morris returned, after signing with the Oklahoma City Thunder as a post-deadline free agent, he was rusty and ineffective as a shooter. Add in Morris' age (he'll turn 30 in September), and he was forced to settle for a huge pay cut from last season's $8.6 million. The most Detroit could offer Morris after using most of the taxpayer midlevel exception on Derrick Rose is the $3.6 million biannual exception, which James Edwards III of The Athletic Detroit reported he will get.

          If the Pistons get anything like the Morris who made 36.5% of his 3s in 2016-17 and 2017-18 as a full-time starting power forward for the Wizards, this deal will be a bargain. Having traded Jon Leuer and with Zaza Pachulia hitting free agency, Detroit had only Thon Maker as a veteran in the frontcourt behind starters Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Morris gives the Pistons much better insurance in case Drummond or Griffin miss time and will prevent them from needing to rush first-round pick Sekou Doumbouya into action.

          Indiana Pacers

          1. Agreed to a reported two-year, $7 million deal with guard T.J. McConnell

          With Victor Oladipo set to miss the first couple months of the season, the Pacers needed more backcourt depth even after adding Malcolm Brogdon from the Milwaukee Bucks in a sign-and-trade. The addition of McConnell will allow Brogdon to play shooting guard more before Oladipo's return to the lineup. It also takes some of the pressure off 2018 first-round pick Aaron Holiday to run the offense after Holiday played more time at shooting guard than point guard as a rookie.

          The 76ers transitioned from processing to contending during the four-year, minimum-salary contract McConnell signed as an undrafted rookie out of Arizona. He continued to play an important role during the regular season, averaging 19.3 minutes last season, but dropped mostly out of the Sixers' rotation during their seven-game playoff series against the Toronto Raptors.

          I'm not sure how much to read into that fact. McConnell's limited 3-point range (he made just 14 last season in 1,470 minutes) is an issue during the playoffs. At the same time, he played well for Philadelphia in the 2018 postseason, even starting two games against the Celtics. It may just have been a matchup issue borne of the unorthodox lineup combinations Brett Brown was using and his desire to (successfully) put length on Fred VanVleet defensively.

          As a fourth guard in Indiana when Oladipo is healthy, McConnell should fit well and be a reasonable value. Because this is a two-year deal, the Pacers will have the option of either using some of their remaining $5 million or so in cap space on McConnell or spending that on another long-term deal and signing him with the $4.8 million room midlevel exception, which is limited to two years at most.

          Memphis Grizzlies

          1. Agreed to trade Chandler Parsons to Atlanta for Solomon Hill and Miles Plumlee

          You can find my trade grades for this deal here.

          Minnesota Timberwolves

          1. Signed forward Jake Layman to a reported three-year, $11.5 million deal as part of a sign-and-trade with the Portland Trail Blazers

          After a pair of cheap, one-year signings (Jordan Bell and Noah Vonleh), Layman is the first big addition in free agency for new Minnesota president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas.

          Given the Timberwolves' depth on the wing, I would guess they view Layman as more of a replacement for Dario Saric at power forward. Layman played 30% of his minutes there last season with Portland, per my analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats. At 6-foot-9, Layman has enough size for the position, though he gives up strength to bigger 4s.

          Having played sparingly and ineffectively his first two seasons as a second-round pick, Layman took a huge step forward in 2018-19. He made an impressive 64.6% of his 2-point attempts, eighth best in the league among players with at least 100 attempts. If Layman can keep that up while improving on last year's 32.6% 3-point shooting, he'll be a hypereffecient offensive weapon.

          My multiyear projections show Layman providing $16 million of value over the next three seasons, so this looks like a reasonable price, assuming Minnesota doesn't have to give up too much to Portland. From the Blazers' standpoint, matching this offer for Layman would have been far more costly, given their status as taxpayers. Layman's salary would have added nearly $5 million to Portland's tax bill, as compared to signing a player for the minimum; it would have been a hefty amount for someone that Blazers coach Terry Stotts did not trust to play rotation minutes in the playoffs.

          New Orleans Pelicans

          1. Agreed to a reported two-year, $14.25 million deal with forward Darius Miller

          This is a surprising number for Miller, who made $4.3 million over the past two seasons. The Pelicans may be overpaying in terms of 2019-20 salary in order to get a non-guarantee on the second year, as reported by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, which both allows them to use the early Bird exception to re-sign Miller and makes him an interesting trade piece as a de facto expiring contract.

          Miller did average 25.5 minutes off the bench for New Orleans last season, and his shooting ability (38% career from 3-point range) fits with the Pelicans' emphasis on putting good shooters around Zion Williamson on the perimeter. But New Orleans' newfound depth will make it difficult for Miller to play as large a role this season, and he already had fallen behind undrafted rookie Kenrich Williams on the depth chart after last year's All-Star break.

          Though Miller's cap hold is a modest $2.9 million, keeping that on the books while also acquiring Derrick Favors and signing JJ Redick to a reported contract will require the Pelicans to waive two of their four non-guaranteed or lightly guaranteed contracts for Williams, Dairis Bertans, Jahlil Okafor and Christian Wood. If they choose Wood, who averaged 16.9 points and 7.9 rebounds in eight games for New Orleans after the Milwaukee Bucks waived him late in the season due to other injuries, another team should be ready to pick him up off waivers.

          Oklahoma City Thunder

          1. Agreed to reported contracts with guard Alec Burks, forward Mike Muscala and center Nerlens Noel

          No contract details have yet been reported for the three players who have agreed to sign with the Thunder. Given Oklahoma City started the offseason with a projected tax bill north of $50 million, it's unlikely any got much more than the veterans minimum.

          Getting Noel back is a huge win for the Thunder after he played last season in Oklahoma City at the minimum. Noel declined a 2019-20 player option, also at the minimum, but apparently found the market for his services cooler than he expected. I would have targeted Noel at the room exception, which has instead gone to several other centers -- Ed Davis, Richaun Holmes, Frank Kaminsky, Enes Kanter and Robin Lopez.

          After all, Noel's defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) ranked third in the NBA last season. Noel is a below-average offensive center who doesn't provide much floor spacing, but he's overqualified for the 14 minutes per game he played in 2018-19 backing up starter Steven Adams.

          Because the Thunder retained Noel, Muscala likely slots in as a stretch-4 in the role Markieff Morris and Patrick Patterson played last season. Muscala should be an upgrade there. He's a 36.5% career 3-point shooter, better than Patterson (33.6%) and Morris (33.9% with Oklahoma City) shot last year. The Thunder may now look to shed Patterson's $5.7 million expiring contract to help mitigate the tax bill.

          Burks was traded twice and split his 2018-19 among three teams, starting 24 games in Cleveland before playing sparingly in Sacramento after the trade deadline. Largely a slasher early in his career, Burks has become a decent 3-point shooter (he shot 36% beyond the arc last season) but injuries have sapped the athleticism that once made him a dangerous scorer. We'll see if Oklahoma City can get more out of Burks.

          Philadelphia 76ers

          1. Agreed to a reported one-year, minimum deal with guard Raul Neto

          The Utah Jazz had to waive Neto and his non-guaranteed $2.15 million salary in order to sign Bojan Bogdanovic to the four-year, $73 million deal that was reported on Sunday. Neto cleared waivers, and he now has landed with the Sixers at the veteran's minimum as a replacement for McConnell.

          From a pure ability standpoint, Neto is overqualified for the minimum. He is a well-rounded backup point guard who ranked 32nd among players at the position in RPM last season.

          The question is whether Neto can stay healthy. He dealt with multiple soft-tissue injuries last season, most notably a hamstring strain and a groin strain, missing a total of 39 games. And that was in a relatively small role as fourth guard with Utah, averaging 12.8 minutes per game -- fewer than the 19.3 McConnell played with Philadelphia. As a result, I think the 76ers will have to find a third reliable point guard to go with Neto and Ben Simmons.

          Phoenix Suns

          1. Agreed to trade Josh Jackson, De'Anthony Melton and picks for Kyle Korver and Jevon Carter

          You can find my trade grades for this deal here.

          Toronto Raptors

          1. Agreed to a reported three-year deal with guard Matt Thomas

          Undrafted in 2017 out of Iowa State, Thomas has spent the past two seasons playing in the Spanish ACB, where he shot 48.5% from the shorter FIBA 3-point line in 2018-19. That performance was no fluke. Thomas shot 43.8% on 3s his last two years as a Cyclone and 45.9% in 2017-18 in Spain. It remains to be seen whether Thomas can contribute enough elsewhere to stay on the court. He looks like a Troy Daniels-style specialist in the NBA. Still, that one elite skill has allowed Daniels to carve out a long NBA career, and perhaps Thomas will as well.

          Day 3 deals

          Here's my analysis for Day 3, including:

          Day 2 deals

          Here's my analysis for Day 2:

          And a roundup of more news analysis, including:

          Day 1 deals

          Here's my analysis of the initial wave of major free-agency moves and what they mean:

          And here's my roundup of more news, including: