If Kawhi Leonard doesn't join the Lakers, what will they do?
Having secured a meeting with the Finals MVP and top free agent on the market, the Lakers have no choice but to wait for Leonard to make his decision. But while Leonard moves at his own pace, not taking any meetings on the opening day of free agency, action elsewhere has been frenzied. The other max targets the Lakers sought as fallback plans no longer appear to be available. And many of the quality role players the Lakers could have targeted by splitting up their cap space are already spoken for, too.
So, on Day 2 of free agency, what would the Lakers be able to do if they don't get Kawhi?
Other max-caliber players all gone
Entering free agency, my ESPN colleague Bobby Marks projected 12 players with a starting salary of more than $15 million, the top tier of free agents. By Sunday night, every one but Leonard had committed to a contract.
That group includes a couple of players linked heavily to the Lakers. D'Angelo Russell, drafted No. 2 overall by the Lakers in 2015 before being traded to the Brooklyn Nets, was set to meet with them. But Russell committed Sunday night to go to the Golden State Warriors as part of a sign-and-trade deal involving Kevin Durant. Jimmy Butler of the Philadelphia 76ers appeared to be the other most likely Lakers target among the max group. He, too, agreed to a deal that requires a sign-and-trade, this one to the Miami Heat.
Given the complexity of sign-and-trade transactions to teams without cap space, there were still details to work out, making it look like the Lakers potentially had a few more options in free agency. But on Monday the Heat and Warriors both finalized those deals. Now, Leonard is the Lakers' only option for adding a third All-Star alongside Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
Most role players not waiting for Lakers
In a 5-on-5 before free agency, I picked the speed of the market as the single thing I was watching most closely, citing the Lakers as an explanation. Because of their uncertainty about Leonard's decision, the Lakers have to be ready to pivot to role players if he decides to join the rival LA Clippers or re-sign with the Toronto Raptors. But the vast majority of those secondary options haven't proved to be interested in waiting for the Lakers.
The New York Knicks in particular have proved to be an obstacle for the Lakers, signing away two potential wing targets in Reggie Bullock and Wayne Ellington. Bullock's commitment would be particularly painful for the Lakers if they don't get Kawhi because they held full Bird rights to re-sign him. That would have allowed the Lakers to match the kind of money Bullock got on a two-year, $21 million deal while counting only his $4.75 million hold against the cap.
The point guard market has thinned out in a hurry. L.A. native Darren Collison would have been a good option for the Lakers before making the stunning announcement that he would instead retire days before free agency. Patrick Beverley agreed to a three-year, $40 million deal to stay with the Clippers, while George Hill re-signed with the Bucks for three years and $29 million after they waived him to take advantage of a small guarantee on his 2019-20 salary.
Who is left for the Lakers?
Realistically, the Lakers can't pursue restricted free agents like Tyus Jones of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Delon Wright of the Memphis Grizzlies because of the timing of their trade for Davis. The Davis trade is on schedule to be completed July 6, the first day restricted free agents can sign offer sheets, and will vaporize nearly $6 million in Lakers cap space as soon as it's completed. That's no issue if the Lakers have already completed their shopping in free agency and go over the cap. But if the Lakers used part of that on a restricted free agent and saw the offer sheet matched by that player's original team, they wouldn't get the $6 million back to spend.
If we look instead at unrestricted free agents, the available point guards drop off in a hurry. A return by Rajon Rondo is starting to look like a reasonable outcome given that the alternatives either also struggle as outside shooters (Emmanuel Mudiay, Elfrid Payton) or aren't starting-caliber players.
The Lakers could jump into the Butler sign-and-trade and take on Dragic, who's a far better option at point guard than the available unrestricted free agents. But he's also much more expensive at $19 million. The Lakers could probably use that money to get a pair of role players in free agency. They might ultimately be better off just playing LeBron as a point guard and stocking up on wings.
After all, the remaining options for the Lakers if Kawhi signs elsewhere are much better on the wing. Danny Green is the most prominent free agent who is apparently content to wait out a decision by his Toronto Raptors teammate, and he's also the best 3-and-D wing the Lakers could get. So he'd be an obvious first target if the Lakers don't get Kawhi.
If the Lakers want to lean more on the defensive side of the 3-and-D equation, Memphis Grizzlies wing Justin Holiday would be a fit. And much-maligned incumbent shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope remains available.
Despite how ugly the market for point guards looks, I wouldn't say it's Kawhi or bust for the Lakers just yet. Although the Lakers have lost some prime targets, most notably Bullock, they'd be able to put together a solid wing rotation as things stand, assuming they get some of the best players available at the moment. And they might be better off defensively without a traditional point guard anyway.
At the same time, we might still be days away from a decision by Leonard. Presumably, he'll make one before July 6, after which the Lakers would no longer have the cap space to make him a max offer. We'll see just how many other free agents remain willing to wait on Kawhi and the Lakers.