Just how good are the Philadelphia 76ers with Al Horford and Josh Richardson?
In a stunning makeover of a roster that gave the Toronto Raptors their toughest test en route to the 2019 NBA championship, the Sixers lost starters JJ Redick and Jimmy Butler on Sunday but managed to replace them by acquiring Richardson from the Miami Heat in a Butler sign-and-trade and agreeing to a reported four-year, $109 million contract with Horford.
Remarkably, Philadelphia's giant and versatile new starting five appears to have perhaps even more potential than the lineup that took the Raptors the distance. So what can we expect from the new-look Sixers?
Big lineup gets bigger
One key reason the 76ers were such a difficult opponent for Toronto in the playoffs was their size. With 6-foot-10 Simmons as a point guard, Philadelphia started just one player -- Redick -- shorter than 6-foot-8. That size made life difficult for the likes of 6-foot Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet. Now, the Sixers have replaced the 6-foot-4 Redick with the 6-foot-6 Richardson and swapped out the 6-foot-8 Butler for the 6-foot-10 Horford in what might be the biggest lineup in recent NBA memory.
Richardson's ability to defend point guards is a crucial part of the equation. That was a big issue for Philadelphia after the Butler trade, which cost the 76ers Robert Covington, their primary defender against quick point guards. While Richardson defended a variety of positions in Miami, including playing at the top of the 2-3 zone Erik Spoelstra frequently employed, his most common defensive matchup according to Second Spectrum tracking was against point guards.
Additionally, upgrading from Redick to Richardson on the perimeter takes away Philadelphia's clearest target on defense. Switching Redick on bigger opponents was a challenge. Now head coach Brett Brown should feel comfortable switching any screen that doesn't involve center Joel Embiid, giving the Sixers incredible defensive versatility.
Philadelphia also improved defensively in the frontcourt by adding Horford, an All-Defensive second team pick in 2017-18 who offers top-tier pattern recognition and the mobility to switch on guards and defend away from the basket. After ranking third in the NBA in defensive rating in 2017-18, the 76ers slipped to 14th last season. Expect them to jump back into the top five again this season.
Spacing the floor
All things considered, Philly managed to add defensively without subtracting much in terms of shooting. Over the past three regular seasons, Horford and Richardson made 573 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, according to tracking data on NBA Advanced Stats -- almost identical to the 575 made by Butler and Redick combined.
Because Butler is so selective with his spot-up opportunities and Redick so efficient with them, the departed duo did shoot a substantially higher percentage (43.2% compared with 37.4%). When it comes to the gravitational pull shooters exert on defenses, however, my research has found that 3-point attempts are actually more important than 3-point accuracy.
Ideally, the 76ers would have found a way to upgrade their spacing, which will still be an issue when nonshooter Simmons plays off the ball. But these moves seem to have minimized the damage done by Redick's loss in particular.
Sixers lose their closer
Butler's departure is somewhat surprising because he emerged as a crucial late-game option for the team after his acquisition in a November trade. Though Butler's usage rate overall dropped to 22% of the 76ers' plays while he was on the court, his lowest rate since 2014-15, it was a different story in crunch time.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, Butler used 28% of the team's plays in clutch situations -- defined as the final five minutes when the score is within five points -- with a robust 60.0 true shooting percentage. In the playoffs, his clutch usage jumped again to 37%, nearly even with that of All-NBA center Embiid (38%). And Butler was efficient in the clutch (to an unsustainable degree) in the postseason, improving his true shooting percentage to 73.5%.
Late in games, Butler essentially traded roles with Simmons, taking over as the team's point guard to run pick-and-roll plays with Embiid as well as isolations. Simmons' clutch usage rate in the playoffs was an astoundingly low 4.8% of the team's plays, suggesting he was essentially a bystander down the stretch. (During the regular season, Simmons used 14.8% of the team's plays in the clutch with strong efficiency.)
Certainly, Simmons could do more late-game creating during the playoffs, particularly if the 76ers have a better floor spacer than Butler spotting up elsewhere. And Richardson (21.5% usage in the clutch in Miami with 58.6% true shooting) is more of a late-game option than Redick. Still, Butler's value in the clutch will be tough for Philadelphia to replace.
Filling out the roster
Assuming Horford gets max 5% year-to-year raises and just $97 million of his contract counts against the cap because of unlikely incentives, the 76ers could have up to about $8 million remaining to spend in free agency if they renounce their remaining free agents.
After utilizing cap space, Philadelphia would have the $4.8 million room midlevel exception available. That may be earmarked for forward Mike Scott, who suggested on Twitter Sunday night that he'd re-signed with the team.
Improving the second unit should be a priority for the Sixers, who outscored the Raptors when both teams had their starters on the court but were badly outplayed when Embiid was on the bench. Having Horford available to stagger minutes with Embiid will help there, but Philadelphia also could stand to upgrade its wing depth. For now, the 76ers are counting on rapid development from 2018 first-round pick Zhaire Smith and 2019 first-rounder Matisse Thybulle.
With these moves, Philadelphia will undoubtedly have one of the league's best starting fives -- quite possibly the very best following the breakup of the Golden State Warriors. How much the Sixers can build up their bench could make the difference for them in the 2020 playoffs.