Where do the Milwaukee Bucks stand after a busy first day of free agency?
The Bucks, who posted the NBA's best record last season before losing to the eventual champion Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference finals, entered the summer with three starters as free agents: Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton and guard Malcolm Brogdon.
Milwaukee was able to re-sign Lopez and Middleton, as well as reserve guard George Hill, but agreed to a sign-and-trade deal sending Brogdon to the Indiana Pacers. How might that affect the Bucks' chances of repeating their success in 2019-20?
Middleton takes slight discount from max
As a restricted free agent in the summer of 2015, a year before the NBA's salary cap spiked, Middleton settled early for a five-year, $70 million deal (with a player option on the fifth season) from Milwaukee rather than taking his chances on an offer sheet. This time around, Middleton drove a tougher bargain with the Bucks.
Using the threat of a lucrative four-year offer from another team, Middleton was able to get the Bucks to guarantee him the fifth season only they could offer, which will pay him $40.5 million at age 32. As a concession, Middleton did take a slight discount from his $190 million maximum contract, agreeing for a reported $178 million. That will save the Bucks about $2 million in 2019-20 salary, crucial as Milwaukee budgets for possibly entering luxury-tax territory.
Ultimately, Middleton got $37 million more from the Bucks than any other team could offer (a maximum of four years and about $141 million). Given the low likelihood he'd make a starting salary of $37 million as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2022, that looks like a wise decision.
Milwaukee uses cap space to re-sign Lopez
By virtue of signing Lopez to a bargain one-year, $3.4 million deal last summer, the Bucks were somewhat limited in their ability to re-sign him. Had Milwaukee stayed over the cap, the most the team could have offered him as a starting salary was the $9.3 million non-taxpayer midlevel. That proved a crucial element in the Bucks' trade with the Detroit Pistons for Jon Leuer, which created an extra $2.7 million or so in cap space to make this offer to Lopez.
It wouldn't be surprising if other teams were willing to offer more to Lopez on a per-year basis, but the four-year, $52 million deal he got from Milwaukee was surely attractive to the 31-year-old. Assuming the Bucks used maximum 5% year-to-year raises, Lopez will make $13.9 million in 2022-23, when he'll turn 35 late in the regular season. As well as Lopez's combination of size and shooting figures to age, that's a lot to commit.
From Milwaukee's standpoint, there was no good way to replace Lopez, whose unique skill set was crucial to the team's success at both ends of the floor last season. So it's no surprise the Bucks were willing to do whatever it took to retain Lopez. Alas, they didn't take the same approach with Brogdon.
Milwaukee holds the line on Brogdon
Though the Bucks started the offseason under the cap, re-signing Brogdon to a deal substantially larger than his $3.0 million cap hold would have taken them into the luxury tax. That prospect, plus perhaps concern about whether Brogdon was worth the money long-term given the possibility of his reinjuring the bone he broke in his left foot during college, led Milwaukee to pass on matching an offer sheet to the restricted free agent.
Instead, the Bucks agreed to a sign-and-trade deal with the Pacers that will bring back a first-round pick but cost them a starting guard. Milwaukee showed the ability to win without Brogdon during the playoffs, when he missed most of the first two rounds due to a plantar fascia tear. The Bucks went 7-1 in eight games without him, taking a 3-1 lead over the Boston Celtics in the second round. However, that came after they moved Nikola Mirotic into the starting lineup as Brogdon's replacement, and Sunday's moves will force Milwaukee to renounce his rights. (Previously, reports indicated that Mirotic plans to forgo lucrative NBA offers in favor of a return to Spain with FC Barcelona.)
Without Brogdon and Mirotic, the Bucks will be counting on development from third-year guard Sterling Brown, who started the first five games of the playoffs in Brogdon's place, and 2018 first-round pick Donte DiVincenzo. Brogdon's departure also made it imperative Milwaukee bring back guard George Hill, who will have to be waived by Monday because only $1 million of his $18 million 2019-20 salary is guaranteed.
In order to make a competitive offer to Hill, who agreed to a three-year deal worth a reported $29 million, the Bucks had to again increase their cap space. That will assuredly require them to waive Leuer and stretch his $9.8 million salary over the next three seasons.
Taking stock
When the dust settles, Milwaukee will apparently have lost Brogdon and Mirotic while bringing back the other eight players who saw at least 50 minutes of action in the playoffs. The Bucks will still have their $4.8 million room midlevel if they're in search of additional wing depth, having also dealt Tony Snell for Leuer in a money-saving move. And, depending how they're able to structure their deals, they may be able to generate a trade exception for Brogdon that could be useful at the deadline.
I'd be surprised if Sunday's moves dramatically alter Milwaukee's regular-season outlook. The Bucks remain a good bet to post the best record in the NBA no matter whether Kawhi Leonard re-signs in Toronto or not.
Come playoff time, however, Milwaukee could be hampered by the drop-off from Brogdon to Brown, Hill and Pat Connaughton. With Hill forced to play more shooting guard, coach Mike Budenholzer might not have as much freedom to bench Eric Bledsoe if he struggles in the postseason again. If the Bucks come up short in the playoffs, we're likely to remember their offseason moves.