How can the Portland Trail Blazers make a Damian Lillard supermax contract work for them?
Lillard and the Blazers are set to agree to a four-year extension, currently projected to be worth $196 million, on the first day it could be offered. The extension would kick in during the 2021-22 season, after Lillard's current contract expires, and its value wouldn't be determined until the salary cap is set two years from now.
The challenge now is for the Blazers to maintain a competitive team around Lillard once his salary jumps to an expected average of nearly $50 million per year.
How well can Lillard be expected to age?
So far, the supermax hasn't worked as intended when it was added in the most recent NBA collective bargaining agreement. Few players have agreed to take the larger offer to stay with their current team, and of those who have, teams may already regret some of those deals.
One issue with supermax contracts is they typically cover the decline phase of superstars' careers, when their salary increases as their production is waning. That's particularly true in the case of a player like Lillard, who entered the league relatively late for an All-Star, turning 22 the summer he was drafted. Lillard's extension will kick in shortly before he celebrates his 31st birthday in July 2021 and take him through his age-34 season.
As we've seen most recently with Chris Paul of the Houston Rockets, who turned 34 during the 2019 playoffs, the aging curve can be steep for point guards in their 30s. But there are a few reasons for Portland to feel optimistic about how Lillard will age. First, as previously noted, he entered the league late, and there is some evidence that total mileage matters along with age when projecting how players will decline in the back half of their careers.
Additionally, Lillard has been durable throughout his NBA career, playing all 82 games his first three seasons in the league and at least 73 every season. He missed just one game because of injury in 2018-19 before sitting out the season finale to rest for the playoffs.
Lastly, Lillard's shooting ability should help him mitigate some of the effects of declining athleticism in his 30s. Better shooters tend to maintain more of their value as they age than weaker ones, particularly at point guard. Lillard's deep shooting range will help him continue to create separation on the pick-and-roll, while he could eventually shift more off the ball as a spot-up threat to avoid wear and tear.
My SCHOENE projection system forecasts out three years in the future, which takes Lillard through only the first year of his extension. But based on his past performance and the development of similar players, he's projected for 12.5 wins above replacement in 2021-22, which would put him in the mix for All-NBA honors.
How can Portland build around Lillard?
By the time Lillard's extension kicks in, the Blazers' roster may look far different from the one that unexpectedly reached the conference finals this year. Just two other Portland players are under contract for 2021-22 at this point: center Jusuf Nurkic (whose $13.1 million salary is partially guaranteed for $4 million) and 2018 first-round pick Anfernee Simons (who would be headed into the last year of his rookie contract if the Blazers pick up both of their team options). This year's first-round pick, North Carolina forward Nassir Little, will join this group when he signs his rookie deal.
On the plus side, this means Portland will be past the contracts the team handed out in the free-spending summer of 2016. Backup center Meyers Leonard is in the last year of his contract, as is Kent Bazemore, acquired from the Atlanta Hawks earlier this month in exchange for fellow 2016 signee Evan Turner. Assuming the Blazers re-sign Lillard's backcourt mate, CJ McCollum, the team won't have cap space to go shopping in free agency anytime soon. But Portland also may not feel the pinch of the luxury tax so severely before Lillard starts his extension.
Alas, tax concerns and limited flexibility will almost certainly break up the Blazers' bench this summer. Portland has only non-Bird rights to guards Seth Curry and Rodney Hood and center Enes Kanter, which could force the Blazers to use their $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception on one of those free agents if they wish to retain them. The Blazers also must try to re-sign starting forward Al-Farouq Aminu, an unrestricted free agent who could prove too expensive because of the tax.
As role players depart, Portland is counting on the kind of player development that has turned castoffs like starting forward Maurice Harkless and now-departed guard Shabazz Napier into rotation contributors. The Blazers have high hopes for 2017 lottery pick Zach Collins, who has the potential to become a stretch 5 with defensive versatility that allows him to play alongside Nurkic. Simons figures to move into the rotation next season after more or less redshirting as a 19-year-old rookie. And Portland was thrilled to land Little, projected to go in the middle of the first round, with the 25th pick earlier this month.
Maintaining depth and quality role players will be challenging for the Blazers once they're paying Lillard 35% of the salary cap, particularly if they re-sign McCollum to a standard 30% max deal in the summer of 2021. Those two guards alone could make $80 million in 2021-22. But if Lillard continues to play at a high level into his 30s and Portland hits on its draft picks, the Blazers can succeed where some of their supermax predecessors seem to have failed.