What does Kevin Durant's decision to sign in Brooklyn mean for the Nets in 2019-20 and beyond?
A day after news broke that Kyrie Irving planned to commit to Brooklyn when NBA free agency officially opened for business on Sunday, Durant made the same decision according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The Nets will pair the two All-Stars with much of the core of last season's surprising playoff team in the culmination of an incredible rebuilding process for a team that was hopeless not long ago.
How good will Brooklyn be next season with Durant rehabilitating from surgery to repair the Achilles tendon rupture he suffered during Game 5 of the NBA Finals? And what about when Durant returns to the court? Let's take a look at the implications of Brooklyn making its dream pairing of free agents a reality.
Temper expectations for 2019-20 Nets
As exciting as Durant's decision is, it probably won't help Brooklyn on the court next season. All indications are Durant plans to spend the entire season rehabbing. That means the Nets will be bringing back a similar core of players, with Irving replacing All-Star point guard D'Angelo Russell (who will presumably become an unrestricted free agent) and newcomer Taurean Prince taking the minutes that went to DeMarre Carroll last season.
Brooklyn will have work to do to fill out the roster. Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated reported earlier Sunday that Garrett Temple is expected to sign a two-year, $10 million deal with the Nets that would likely utilize their room midlevel exception after Durant and Irving are officially signed. Temple is a useful 3-and-D role player on the wing, but signing him would leave Brooklyn with only the minimum to fill what will likely be at least five open roster spots.
Unless the Nets are able to get Durant and Irving to take the small discount required to sign both players to near-max contracts, they'll have to trade at least one of their 10 players under contract (not counting second-round pick Nicolas Claxton) to get to full maxes. How well the team does with minimum pickups -- plus reportedly DeAndre Jordan, who wants to play with his friend Durant -- will go a long way toward determining Brooklyn's 2019-20 outlook.
Ahead of those decisions, the Nets look likely to be marginally improved from last season, when they won 42 games to finish sixth in the Eastern Conference. I wouldn't put this Brooklyn team ahead of the Boston Celtics, who won seven more games with Irving and Al Horford but were able to add Kemba Walker to offset their departures and are more likely than the Nets to benefit from regression to the mean after a disappointing 2018-19 campaign.
Of course, if Durant does sit out all of 2019-20, the upcoming season in Brooklyn is just an appetizer for his return the following season.
Nets well suited to support Durant and Irving
The youth of Brooklyn's returning core of role players sets the Durant-Irving pairing apart from other star duos we've seen in recent memory. Of the other players on the roster, only Joe Harris (28 in September) is older than age 26. At 27, Irving is also in the middle of his prime, giving the Nets plenty of options to supplement Durant if he needs to manage his playing time coming back from injury and to prolong his career beyond that.
The wing players Brooklyn has stocked up on should fit well in smaller roles alongside Durant and Irving. Harris, the NBA's reigning 3-point champion, led the league by shooting 47.4% beyond the arc last season. The addition of Prince (39% from 3 last season, 38% career) allows the Nets to put lineups on the court with four above-average 3-point shooters around rim-running center Jarrett Allen.
Alternatively, Brooklyn could get more ballhandling and shot creation with either backup point guard Spencer Dinwiddie or promising wing Caris LeVert in the backcourt alongside Irving. Or Rodions Kurucs could provide more length in the frontcourt, particularly if he develops as a shooter after making 31.5% of his 3s as a rookie adjusting to the longer NBA 3-point line. Or Garrett Temple could provide more wing defense. Suffice it to say Nets coach Kenny Atkinson will have incredible flexibility.
Maintaining this flexibility for Durant's possible return in 2020-21 will require Brooklyn to spend heavily, almost certainly into the luxury tax. LeVert and Prince are both due for big raises after the expiration of their rookie contracts, either via extensions this fall or as restricted free agents next summer. Harris will also be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020, and Allen will be due for a new contract the summer after that. Paying up should be doable in a big market, but will limit the Nets' additions in free agency to the taxpayer midlevel exception at most.
Brooklyn is also in good shape in terms of draft picks despite giving up two first-rounders to create additional cap space by trading high-priced wing Allen Crabbe to the Atlanta Hawks for Prince. The Nets were able to replace the protected 2020 first-rounder they lost in that deal by swapping this year's 27th overall pick to the LA Clippers in exchange for a protected 2020 first-round pick from the Philadelphia 76ers. Beyond next year, Brooklyn should have all its first-round picks to either add cost-controlled young talent or utilize in trades.
Additionally, the Nets might be able to extract valuable draft picks from the Warriors and Celtics if they want to execute sign-and-trades with Durant and Irving. Brooklyn has no need to do a sign-and-trade in either case, each of which would benefit the player's former team -- Golden State by creating a massive trade exception, Boston by being able to acquire Kemba Walker in a sign-and-trade while retaining access to the taxpayer midlevel exception -- and would surely demand draft-pick compensation in exchange for benefiting two rival teams.
There's too much left to happen between now and 2020-21, including the progress of Durant's rehab, to say definitively that the Nets are the favorites to win a championship after his return. But Brooklyn is certainly very much in the mix, and positioned to contend throughout the remainder of the four-year deals both Durant and Irving will sign.