We suspected a trade was coming from the Phoenix Suns, who wouldn't have had cap room to sign Ricky Rubio to a reported three-year, $51 million deal while retaining the rights to restricted free agent Kelly Oubre otherwise.
The Memphis Grizzlies took advantage of Phoenix's need to move quickly, offering the partially guaranteed contract of veteran Kyle Korver as a carrot. In return, Memphis will take a flier on 2017 No. 4 overall pick Josh Jackson and get a potentially valuable second-round pick.
Phoenix Suns get: Kyle Korver, Jevon Carter
Memphis Grizzlies get: Josh Jackson, De'Anthony Melton, 2020 second-round pick, conditional 2021 second-round pick
Get more trade grades for every deal here.
Memphis Grizzlies: A
It's hard to believe it has barely been two years since Jackson was a coveted prospect after his lone season at Kansas. After taking him fourth overall, then-Suns general manager Ryan McDonough told reporters, "We thought Josh Jackson was the best player in the draft. People say, well you know, he's the best two-way player, and the last I checked the game was played two ways, you don't just play one."
Jackson is still just 22 -- younger than Phoenix lottery pick Cameron Johnson -- but thus far he hasn't particularly excelled at either end of the court. Jackson's athleticism hasn't translated into the expected contributions on defense, where he ranked 84th among small forwards in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) last season.
Offensively, Jackson has been erratic. He has struggled as an outside shooter, although he did improve from 26% on 3s as a rookie to 32% last season, and shows little grasp of good shot selection. Of the 177 players who attempted last 500 shots in 2018-19, Jackson's shot quality ranked 144th according to Second Spectrum's qSQ metric, which accounts for the type and distance of the shot and location of nearby defenders. In terms of effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the additional value of 3-pointers, Jackson's 45.7% mark ranked fourth from the bottom of that same group.
If it wasn't clear already, I'm not holding out much hope of Jackson developing into a good player. Although 22-year-olds are bound to improve, players who start as poorly as Jackson -- who rated 1.8 wins below replacement according to my WARP metric last year -- typically don't ever get much better than replacement level.
Nonetheless, at this price Jackson is a worthwhile pickup for the Grizzlies, who can evaluate whether getting out of Phoenix's poor culture of player development will spur improvement. They'll have until Oct. 31 to decide on Jackson's $8.9 million team option for 2020-21. If that's declined, Jackson will basically just have been an investment of $3.7 million -- the difference between his 2019-20 salary and the amount guaranteed to Korver -- for a pick that has a chance to be high in the second round.
The undercard of this deal is interesting. It's a challenge trade of defensive-minded point guards drafted in the 2018 second round, both of whom will make the minimum this season. Carter went 14 picks ahead of Melton last June but played sparingly as a rookie, logging just 577 minutes. Chris Herrington of the Daily Memphian reports that new Memphis management preferred Melton, who rated slightly better in 2018-19. I'd rather have Melton going forward.
This deal looks like a good one for the Grizzlies that could become a great one if the 2021 second-round pick also comes to Memphis. Because the Suns already traded that pick to Brooklyn with protections, the Grizzlies will only get it if it's in the top 35, according to Herrington.
Phoenix Suns: C
As compared to the alternative possibility of waiving Jackson and stretching his salary over the next three years, leaving $2.3 million on their cap in 2020-21 and 2021-22, I suppose I prefer the Suns giving up the draft pick to at least not have any long-term cap ramifications of this deal after waiving Korver before his salary guarantees on July 7.
Ideally, Phoenix would have never gotten in this position by offering Rubio a contract starting beyond the team's available cap space. I would have preferred the Suns make a run at one of the restricted free agents at point guard. For example, they could have used these same picks in a sign-and-trade deal for Tomas Satoransky similar to the one the Chicago Bulls actually executed with the Washington Wizards. Satoransky's three-year, $30 million contract looks like a better value than Rubio's deal.
Another important implication of this deal is Korver will certainly be waived, which wasn't necessarily automatic if he stayed in Memphis. That's big news for contenders hoping to add Korver as a contributor at the veteran's minimum. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers are front-runners for Korver's services when he hits the market.