What do you expect from your netminder when you start them in fantasy hockey?
A win? A certain number of fantasy points? As long as it's above zero?
Not everyone can have Cam Talbot and Thatcher Demko patrolling their fantasy crease. In fact, in a 12-team league, someone will be digging down to the 24th-ranked goaltender -- if they're lucky and another fantasy manager doesn't have an extra good one stashed.
But let's take some theoretical 12-team ideals to further explore expectations.
Actually get a number in your head for how many fantasy points you reasonably expect from your goaltender in a single start. Think about it. As a reminder, a win is four points, each goal against counts as minus two points, a save is 0.2 points, they get one point for an overtime loss and a shutout provides a bonus of three points.
So a win in which a goaltender allows three goals on 30 shots is worth 3.4 points, just as an example.
But that example is unfair, as it's actually an above average start.
If we take a goaltender pool of just the top 24 goalies based on their roster percentage in ESPN leagues, the average (mean) for their box scores is just 2.4 fantasy points. If you take a pool of the top 24 goaltenders for total fantasy points so far, it's better, but not by a lot: 3.0 is the mean.
I'll admit, before I started this exercise, I anticipated a higher average. But those negative points will get you.
So using the lesser of the two averages (2.4 based on the rostered top 24 goalies), let's have a quick look at the 24 goaltenders that make up the list.
We'll show how many of their starts have been above the 2.4 threshold, how many have been below, the total number of times they've lost you fantasy points and some other key metrics. As well, I'll offer some commentary where appropriate and include some bonus goalies outside the top 24. The goaltenders are listed in order of rostered percentage.
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Igor Shesterkin, G, New York Rangers (rostered in: 99.6%)
Above average: 8; Below average: 4; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 4 (-15.2 total)
66.7% of appearances above average; 57.5% crease share; 35.6 fantasy points
Even the consensus best netminder only beats the mean two-thirds of the time. While Shesterkin's crease share is down from missing a bit of time, it's also notable that Jonathan Quick has turned back the clock, big time. Quick has five above average starts and only two below, with zero starts that have resulted in minus fantasy points.
Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets (rostered in: 99.2%)
Above average: 9; Below average: 6; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 5 (-14.8 total)
60.0% of appearances above average; 74.9% crease share; 42.8 fantasy points
Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars (rostered in: 98.9%)
Above average: 9; Below average: 5; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 3 (-12.4 total)
64.3% of appearances above average; 73.8% crease share; 35.4 fantasy points
A couple of workhorses, both with nine starts above average. There's nothing to worry about here with Hellebuyck or Oettinger.
Linus Ullmark, G, Boston Bruins (rostered in: 98.2%)
Above average: 7; Below average: 3; Relief (above/below): 0/1; Minus appearances: 4 (-12.2 total)
63.6% of appearances above average; 50.3% crease share; 35.2 fantasy points
As you'll see below, Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman have posted nearly identical numbers this season in a near 50-50 split of the crease. The main difference at this stage has been Swayman limiting the damage from his negative appearances.
Alexandar Georgiev, G, Colorado Avalanche (rostered in: 96.3%)
Above average: 10; Below average: 8; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 5 (-24.0 total)
55.6% of appearances above average; 83.8% crease share; 43.2 fantasy points
That is a lot of minus points from Georgiev here. Part of the problem might be the Avalanche playing some fast and loose hockey. They are also the team that has inflicted the most negative scores on opposing goaltenders, managing to do it in 14 of their 21 games for a negative total of -50.8 fantasy points doled out.
Ilya Sorokin, G, New York Islanders (rostered in: 95.9%)
Above average: 6; Below average: 7; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 5 (-8.8 total)
46.2% of appearances above average; 65.5% crease share; 39.2 fantasy points
Sorokin has at least been able to minimize the damage from the negative points, with his five subzero performances only totalling -8.8 fantasy points.
Thatcher Demko, G, Vancouver Canucks (rostered in: 94.6%)
Above average: 11; Below average: 4; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 4 (-15.8 total)
73.3% of appearances above average; 67.2% crease share; 61.0 fantasy points
With easily the most above average appearances to date, it looks like Demko, Adin Hill and Cam Talbot are the early favorites for the fantasy version of the Vezina.
Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston Bruins (rostered in: 94.5%)
Above average: 7; Below average: 4; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 4 (-4.6 total)
63.6% of appearances above average; 49.7% crease share; 44.4 fantasy points
Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning (rostered in: 93.9%)
Above average: 1; Below average: 1; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 1 (-2.2 total)
50.0% of appearances above average; 9.0% crease share; 2.2 fantasy points
Adin Hill, G, Vegas Golden Knights (rostered in: 93.1%)
Above average: 8; Below average: 5; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 3 (-4.6 total)
61.5% of appearances above average; 59.4% crease share; 64.4 fantasy points
Juuse Saros, G, Nashville Predators (rostered in: 88.3%)
Above average: 7; Below average: 9; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 8 (-28.6 total)
43.8% of appearances above average; 76.4% crease share; 19.8 fantasy points
It probably doesn't help that eight of the Predators' 21 games have come against some of the top 10 teams in inflicting negative goalies scores on their opponents. And poor Saros has started seven of the eight. Only two of their next 10 come against those top 10 teams (Rangers on Dec. 2 and Lightning on Dec. 7), so maybe some improvement is coming.
Tristan Jarry, G, Pittsburgh Penguins (rostered in: 83.6%)
Above average: 8; Below average: 7; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 5 (-21.0 total)
53.3% of appearances above average; 70.0% crease share; 44.8 fantasy points
Jarry's numbers have been essentially Hellebuyck-lite so far this campaign, so he should be rostered universally at this stage.
Cam Talbot, G, Los Angeles Kings (rostered in: 80.8%)
Above average: 9; Below average: 4; Relief (above/below): 1/0; Minus appearances: 3 (-9.0 total)
71.4% of appearances above average; 72.5% crease share; 63.2 fantasy points
Talbot's success can certainly pay some tribute to the schedule at this phase. In stark contrast to Saros, the Kings have faced those top 10 teams at giving opposing goaltenders negative scores only three times in their 19 games this season. And only three of the next 15 games are against those top 10 teams, too. The schedule gets rougher for the Kings in January, so watch out for that.
Logan Thompson, G, Vegas Golden Knights (rostered in: 76.1%)
Above average: 5; Below average: 4; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 2 (-2.4 total)
55.6% of appearances above average; 40.6% crease share; 28.4 fantasy points
Vitek Vanecek, G, New Jersey Devils (rostered in: 74.7%)
Above average: 6; Below average: 7; Relief (above/below): 0/1; Minus appearances: 6 (-17.4 total)
42.9% of appearances above average; 67.2% crease share; 12.2 fantasy points
Carter Hart, G, Philadelphia Flyers (rostered in: 74.5%)
Above average: 6; Below average: 6; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 6 (-13.6 total)
50.0% of appearances above average; 52.8% crease share; 28.2 fantasy points
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Florida Panthers (rostered in: 70.7%)
Above average: 9; Below average: 8; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 6 (-9.4 total)
52.9% of appearances above average; 81.0% crease share; 48.2 fantasy points
Ilya Samsonov, G, Toronto Maple Leafs (rostered in: 65.8%)
Above average: 3; Below average: 7; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 5 (-16.2 total)
30.0% of appearances above average; 45.0% crease share; 1.8 fantasy points
Filip Gustavsson, G, Minnesota Wild (rostered in: 64.3%)
Above average: 2; Below average: 9; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 7 (-29.6 total)
18.2% of appearances above average; 53.1% crease share; -7.8 fantasy points
Here's hoping a coaching change can reignite the Wild into the defensively sound squad that helped fuel Gustavsson last season. You should definitely hang onto him despite the terrible fantasy performance to date.
Jacob Markstrom, G, Calgary Flames (rostered in: 51.5%)
Above average: 5; Below average: 9; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 5 (-12.2 total)
35.7% of appearances above average; 63.1% crease share; 14.4 fantasy points
Jordan Binnington, G, St. Louis Blues (rostered in: 50.6%)
Above average: 7; Below average: 6; Relief (above/below): 0/2; Minus appearances: 7 (-27.6 total)
46.7% of appearances above average; 68.8% crease share; 28.0 fantasy points
Stuart Skinner, G, Edmonton Oilers (rostered in: 47.9%)
Above average: 6; Below average: 8; Relief (above/below): 0/1; Minus appearances: 9 (-36.8 total)
40.0% of appearances above average; 69.1% crease share; 2.4 fantasy points
Skinner has been above average since the coaching change, with 16.2 fantasy points in six starts (2.7 fantasy points per game). In fact, four of his six above average starts this season have come since the Nov. 12 firing of Jay Woodcroft.
Frederik Andersen, G, Carolina Hurricanes (rostered in: 47.0%)
Above average: 3; Below average: 3; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 2 (-2.8 total)
50.0% of appearances above average; 26.1% crease share; 11.4 fantasy points
There's been no update to a timetable for Andersen as he deals with a blood-clotting issue. We don't know if it's similar to, say, Steven Stamkos' blood-clotting issues in 2016, but for a frame of reference, Stamkos was out from March 31 to May 26 that season -- as he laced them up for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. So maybe two months for Andersen? But we don't know.
Joseph Woll, G, Toronto Maple Leafs (rostered in: 40.5%)
Above average: 3; Below average: 6; Relief (above/below): 2/0; Minus appearances: 4 (-14.0 total)
45.5% of appearances above average; 55.0% crease share; 24.4 fantasy points
Bonus goalies
Here are some additional goaltenders that were not among the top 24 based on roster percentage, but whose profile I found worth sharing.
Joonas Korpisalo, G, Ottawa Senators (rostered in: 31.3%)
Above average: 5; Below average: 6; Relief (above/below): 0/1; Minus appearances: 4 (-14.8 total)
41.7% of appearances above average; 63.2% crease share; 14.4 fantasy points
Ville Husso, G, Detroit Red Wings (rostered in: 28.1%)
Above average: 4; Below average: 7; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 5 (-9.4 total)
36.4% of appearances above average; 54.8% crease share; 13.4 fantasy points
Devon Levi, G, Buffalo Sabres (rostered in: 20.4%)
Above average: 2; Below average: 6; Relief (above/below): 0/1; Minus appearances: 6 (-17.0 total)
22.2% of appearances above average; 37.9% crease share; -5.0 fantasy points
Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Minnesota Wild (rostered in: 13.6%)
Above average: 3; Below average: 5; Relief (above/below): 1/0; Minus appearances: 5 (-23.0 total)
44.4% of appearances above average; 46.9% crease share; -4.6 fantasy points
Connor Ingram, G, Arizona Coyotes (rostered in: 10.8%)
Above average: 6; Below average: 4; Relief (above/below): 0/1; Minus appearances: 3 (-9.0 total)
54.5% of appearances above average; 49.2% crease share; 38.4 fantasy points
Elvis Merzlikins, G, Columbus Blue Jackets (rostered in: 9.1%)
Above average: 6; Below average: 10; Relief (above/below): 0/0; Minus appearances: 7 (-13.8 total)
37.5% of appearances above average; 64.6% crease share; 21.2 fantasy points
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G, Buffalo Sabres (rostered in: 6.4%)
Above average: 6; Below average: 3; Relief (above/below): 1/1; Minus appearances: 3 (-9.8 total)
63.6% of appearances above average; 44.9% crease share; 34.0 fantasy points
Akira Schmid, G, New Jersey Devils (rostered in: 3.0%)
Above average: 0; Below average: 6; Relief (above/below): 0/1; Minus appearances: 2 (-10.0 total)
0.0% of appearances above average; 32.8% crease share; -2.0 fantasy points