The Giants’ system has some depth in outfielders, back-end starters and quality relief candidates, but it’s still light on impact guys after the first two to five names, depending on how optimistic you want to be. Years of solid drafts have been offset by numerous promotions and trades to bolster the big league club, although they haven’t traded away many guys who have blossomed elsewhere. Their mid-2016 deal for Matt Moore sent away one of their top prospects, shortstop Lucius Fox, who had received the second-largest bonus in club history for any amateur, just a few dollars behind the bonus given to Buster Posey.
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1. Tyler Beede, RHP (Ranked No. 62)
2. Christian Arroyo, INF (Just missed)
3. Bryan Reynolds, OF (Just missed)
4. Steven Duggar, OF
5. Jordan Johnson, RHP
6. Andy Suarez, LHP
7. Heath Quinn, OF
8. Sam Coonrod, RHP
9. Ty Blach, LHP
10. Aramis Garcia, C
Christian Arroyo was on the top 100 a year ago, but his overly aggressive approach got exposed in Double-A and he didn’t adjust. He can still put the bat on the ball but needs to get into better counts and draw an occasional walk, because I don’t think there’s going to be average power here. The Giants experimented with him at third base, for which he definitely has the hands and the agility, although I thought from seeing him at shortstop in the past that his arm would push him to second.
Bryan Reynolds was the Giants’ first pick of the 2016 draft, coming in the second round, and I thought they got a first-round talent because of his power/speed combination and patient approach. He does strike out a lot, but it’s at least partly a function of running a lot of deep counts and looking for the perfect pitch. In other words, it’s a questionable hitting plan rather than inability to recognize or hit certain pitches. I think he’s an above-average regular, and if he really cuts his strikeouts he could be a star.
Steven Duggar reached Double-A last year and continued to hit and get on base. He’s very athletic, is an above-average runner, has an accurate arm, and might be a plus defender in right field right now. The one tool he lacks is power, but if he does everything else well he should be a regular in right. I’d let him start 2016 as the regular center fielder in Triple-A to see how he looks there in a tough environment. The top three guys in this system are all players you probably know, but I think Duggar is underappreciated for an athletic player who looks like a big league regular to me.
Jordan Johnson stayed healthy in 2016, which in and of itself was progress, but lost his delivery early in the season and couldn’t stay on top of the ball. He throws mid-90s and an average curveball and changeup, so there’s mid-rotation upside, but he has to get back on top of the ball to drive it back down in the zone. Andy Suarez is a four-pitch lefty with nothing plus, throwing harder than a touch-and-feel guy but showing that kind of ability to take something off of his pitches and move the ball around the zone; he’s probably a fourth starter in the end.
Heath Quinn, the Giants’ second pick (third round) in 2016, came out hot with a .344/.434/.564 line in pro ball, mostly in the advanced short-season Northwest League. He’s a strong kid with pull power but a preference to hit to all fields, showing doubles power the other way, and runs well enough to be an asset on defense in right field.
Sam Coonrod has a big arm and stretched himself out to work deeper into games, but he doesn’t miss enough bats in that role and every scout I asked put his future in the bullpen because of the delivery and the command (I haven’t seen him). Ty Blach has worked as a starter his whole career, but right-handed batters hit him pretty well and I think he’s best cast as a reliever, more than a specialist but never asked to face right-handed batters twice.
Aramis Garcia missed time in 2016 after fracturing an orbital bone when he took a knee to his eye while sliding into second base. He can really throw, but his footwork and agility aren’t great behind the plate, and while he has power and can go the other way well he’s vulnerable on the inner third. He’s 70/30 to be a backup versus a starter, with the 30 percent chance mostly about his making that adjustment at the plate.
Right-hander Joan Gregorio (11) could probably start, but looks better built for relief work, where his average fastball will probably be more 93-96 mph and its lack of angle would be a little less concerning. First baseman Chris Shaw (12) has big power, 70 or 80, but the hit tool is short; I think his bat is slow and he doesn’t see the ball that well, but of course when he connects it goes boom.
Austin Slater (13) is a bat without a position, with a good swing, making a lot of adjustments, and he can spray line drives around the field. But there isn’t power there, and since he moved off the dirt his positional value has dropped. He can certainly handle left field, maybe very well, but the bat probably won’t play every day there. Hunter Cole (14) is a corner outfielder, but like Slater falls short of the standard to play every day; he has power and can smack a lefty around, but against right-handers he doesn’t get on base enough or get to the power. Right-hander Reyes Montoya (15) throws 98-99 mph with a power slider that will touch 90 mph; lefties get to him because he has no third pitch, but last year was a big step forward for him mentally and on the field.
Chris Stratton (16) reached the majors last year, primarily on his control, but I think he’s a fifth starter at most. He’s never been as good as he was as a college junior in 2012, when the Giants made him a first-rounder, and now doesn’t have a plus pitch or sink the fastball enough to get ground balls.
Steven Okert (17) is a good lefty specialist who’s capable enough against right-handers to face a few of them, but that’s probably it. I’d still like to see someone give Clayton Blackburn (18) a shot as a fifth starter; he’s average across the board but he commands the fastball and has some deception, enough that I think he could be better than most fifth guys.
Outfielder Ryder Jones (18) hasn’t hit a lick since he entered pro ball in 2013 as a second-round pick, and I was surprised to see him get a bump to Double-A last spring, but to his credit he cut his strikeout rate, drew a few more walks and came into some power, enough that he might be a late-blooming extra outfielder. His plus-plus arm won’t hurt his cause any. Ronnie Jebavy (19) might be an 80 defender in center but has a 30 bat, and it’s possible I’m being generous on the latter grade.
2017 impact: Blach and Okert should fight it out for a lefty relief job this spring, while Stratton could be the fifth starter if there’s an injury or other opening. Slater might end up getting some bench time if he continues to get on base well in Triple-A.
Sleeper: The Giants’ third-round pick in 2016, Quinn is the sort of mildly toolsy college player the Giants seem to favor in the draft, and his all-fields approach might get him to Double-A in his first full pro season.
The fallen: The Giants have fared well in the draft but much less so internationally. Angel Villalona and Rafael Rodriguez took in over $4 million between them and never advanced past Double-A, with Rodriguez retiring in June of 2015 and Villalona still playing after missing several years due to a murder charge (he was eventually acquitted) in the Dominican Republic. The latest flop has been Cuban outfielder Daniel Carbonell, who got $1.4 million in June of 2014, was kicked off the 40-man 15 months later, and hit .284/.348/.384 as a part-time player in High-A San Jose last year.