I wrote in the farm-system rankings that the Royals have the best “if only” system out there, because you can run through their top 15 prospects and see a lot of potential upside if only this guy or that one stays healthy, if that other guy just calms down his delivery, if so-and-so develops a two-strike approach ... and so on. They’ve drafted and scouted for high-ceiling impact players, and I think they’ve identified the right athletes, but the last few classes coming into the system haven’t panned out so far.
AL Central reports: White Sox | Indians | Tigers | Royals | Twins
1. Matt Strahm, LHP (Just Missed)
2. Hunter Dozier, 3B/OF
3. Josh Staumont, RHP
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP
5. Kyle Zimmer, RHP
6. Scott Blewett, RHP
7. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B
8. Garrett Davila, LHP
9. Jorge Bonifacio, OF
10. Eric Skoglund, LHP
Non-top 100 guys
Matt Strahm made my just-missed list as a potential three-pitch starter who was dominant with just his fastball out of Kansas City’s bullpen last year.
Hunter Dozier bounced back from an awful 2015 season to hit well enough at two levels that he earned a big league cup of coffee, but he’s probably going to end up a corner outfielder and doesn’t quite have enough power for more than fringe regular status out there, although he should hit enough to play every day for somebody.
Josh Staumont has ace stuff, an athletic body, a good delivery and sometimes 30 command. I’ve seen him throw with more like 40 command, and it seems like there could be more to come, and the stuff is just ridiculous -- clocked up to 97-98 mph, with a good fading changeup and little bit in between on the breaking ball. It’s easy to just suggest he go to the bullpen, but I think the issues he has with throwing strikes will stay with him in any role, so the Royals are smart to start him and give him more reps to work on locating.
Right-hander Miguel Almonte regressed last year, overthrowing to try to be more of a power guy and losing a grade or more of fastball command, but he still has three pitches when he calms his delivery down and pitches like he did in 2015 and before. He’ll hit 96 mph, adds a good changeup and tight rotation on a short curveball, so the challenge is to try to restore his mechanics from eighteen months ago and see if he can succeed in the Triple-A rotation again.
Kyle Zimmer must have been born under the worst sign ever, as he keeps getting hurt, but it’s never something simple like Tommy John surgery. This time, an operation to treat thoracic outlet syndrome wiped out his 2016 season, and while the good news is that his elbow and shoulder are fine for spring training, I’d like to see him pitch even half a season at this point. I’ve seen him throw three plus pitches, and the delivery itself works. Perhaps the Royals can bring him along slowly in a structured relief role or in a tandem starting arrangement in Triple-A, with an eye toward having him help the big league club over the summer.
Scott Blewett had a solid, healthy season while repeating low-A, working deeper into the year thanks to the weight he added in the previous offseason and improving his command during the summer. His heat will sit in the low 90s complemented with an above-average curveball, and he has the size and delivery to be a workhorse No. 2 starter, but of course needs better results at some point, and his changeup is still below-average.
First baseman Ryan O’Hearn is really strong and has all-fields power, but he has to work on his approach in pitchers’ counts, especially as pitchers try to beat him inside, where he’s a little vulnerable. He can crush something if the pitcher gets too much of the plate, like most hitters of his ilk. He’s first base-only, so he has to hit.
Lefty Garrett Davila throws just 87-90 mph now, but everything works, and he has fourth-starter potential. He’s a command-and-feel guy with a plus changeup and good shape to his curveball. He touched 92 last summer, and you can project him to a future average fastball; added arm speed would give the curveball more bite as well. He throws everything for strikes, and between that and his feel for pitching, I think he could end up a good No. starter.
Jorge Bonifacio is starting to look like a fourth outfielder or up-and-down guy, although he’s young enough to still develop into more than that. He’s too aggressive early in counts and seems to dislike getting to two strikes, but he has 20-plus-homer power if he can alter his approach to get to it. Eric Skoglund is a three-pitch lefty, a back-end starter type with really good feel for his changeup, so he hasn’t had trouble getting right-handed batters out through Double-A.
Seuly Matias (11) is just 18, but the Dominican outfielder has huge raw power and a plus arm, just bringing all kids of plus tools, but he’s not that advanced at the plate right now and struck out in 37 percent of his plate appearances in the Arizona Rookie League. Right-hander, Nolan Watson (12), the Royals’ second pick in 2015, was throwing 90-95 mph last spring and showed a power curveball and feel for his changeup, but he wasn’t ready to face low-A hitters and ended up with a 7.57 ERA in 96 innings, allowing way too much hard contact for his kind of stuff.
Catcher Chase Vallot (13) can hammer a fastball, but off-speed stuff gave him a lot of trouble last year in low-A, and beyond arm strength his catching remains below-average. Right-hander Foster Griffin (14) struggled in high-A as he tried to overpower guys despite stuff that’s more average; I like him if he can learn to pitch as a command-and-control guy rather than trying to blow guys away with the average fastball.
A.J. Puckett (15) was their first pick in the 2016 draft, coming in the second round. He’s a three-pitch starter with good command but perhaps lacking an out pitch. They took two-way high school player Khalil Lee (16) in the third round and sent him out as a center fielder; he has arm strength and some quick-twitch actions, although scouts in Virginia questioned his hit tool before the draft. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention shortstop Marten Gasparini, who will probably move to center this year; he’s a plus runner with a good swing but still needs to work on pitch recognition, unsurprising for a kid born and raised in Italy. He may have to repeat low-A or spend two years in high-A to catch up to teammates who grew up facing better competition.
2017 impact: Strahm has already thrown well in relief for the Royals and should be first in line for a shot at the rotation. Almonte could pitch in their bullpen this year, and if Kyle Zimmer ever gets healthy enough, he’d be a candidate to do the same. Dozier is blocked at the moment, but if the Royals end up trading impending free agents Mike Moustakas and/or Eric Hosmer, that would open a spot for him.
Sleeper: Blewett finished strongly, both in stuff and results, and I think he’s ready to make the leap as he moves up to high-A this year. While Josh Staumont and Nolan Watson might have better pure stuff, Blewett has the best mix across the board of repertoire, command and delivery.
The fallen: Right-hander Ashe Russell, the Royals’ first-round pick in 2015, had something like the yips in 2016, dialing it way down into the mid-80s just to throw strikes and threw just two innings in games all year as a result.