Given what Cleveland just did -- trading two elite prospects for Andrew Miller, coming within a win of a World Series championship -- their system is in fine shape, even if the top tier is a little light. There are at least four guys in this system with the potential (and nonzero chance) to become stars, and there’s a lot of infield depth that could help them improve their defense on the dirt and provide further currency to make another big trade.
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1. Francisco Mejia, C (Ranked No. 18)
2. Triston McKenzie, RHP (Ranked No. 85)
3. Brad Zimmer, OF (Just Missed)
4. Brady Aiken, LHP
5. Yandy Diaz, 3B
6. Nolan Jones, 3B (Just Missed)
7. Bobby Bradley, 1B
8. Will Benson, OF
9. Erik Gonzalez, SS
10. Willi Castro, SS
Non-top 100 guys
Brad Zimmer made the just missed list thanks to his big platoon splits and contact problems in the high minors. I also included Nolan Jones on that list to highlight the discrepancy between what many scouts (and I) believed he was before the draft and his rough pro debut in the AZL-- such a performance isn’t fatal to his hopes, but we expected more.
Brady Aiken is a former top-100 guy who came back from 2015 Tommy John surgery much bigger than he’d been before it, but the main concern is that he was throwing in the upper 80s and touching 90 mph where he’d been 91-95 before the injury. The delivery still works, and he has shown the breaking ball and changeup he had before, but we’ll have to see if the velocity returns once more time has passed since the surgery.
Yandy Diaz is ready for a major league job right now and projects as an everyday guy at third base, with a 70 arm and a lot of hard contact, albeit not for power because he hits the ball on the ground so often. He’s played a lot of outfield to try to create another path to the big leagues, but if Cleveland moves Jason Kipnis back to the outfield, Diaz could play third with Jose Ramirez at second.
First baseman Bobby Bradley hits for power but has to work on his defense and his contact rates; he doesn’t quite sell out for power, but he’s swinging too often at stuff he can’t hit, punching out 170 times in 572 PA last year. He also needs to work on conditioning to avoid becoming a DH. Will Benson, their first-round pick in 2016, is a four-tool guy who lacks the one that matters most -- his swing issues in high school meant you’d see huge power in BP but weak grounders or hard line drives hooked foul in games. There’s hope he’ll be able to build a new swing with better instruction. They’ll have to get his hands started sooner and cut down on the extra noise that prevented him from getting the barrel to the zone on time, but he has All-Star upside because of the other tools.
Erik Gonzalez could be someone’s utility infielder right now, and maybe even a fringe regular at short if you can live with the light bat -- he’s never drawn 30 unintentional walks in a season. Willi Castro struggled in his full-season debut at 19, hitting just .259/.286/.371 at Low-A but did make a lot of good-quality contact and provided strong defense at short. Shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang (11) might be a Jhonny Peralta type of player, a strong kid with good feel to hit and projections of future 55 power; he makes the routine plays at short, but the range is a little less than most teams now want there.
Lefty Juan Hillman (12) started his short-season stint on a roll, with five straight outings without allowing an earned run but hit a wall in mid-July and saw his stuff back up, a sign he’ll need to get stronger to last a full season. When he’s right, he throws 87-93 mph with a ton of deception, adding a true curveball that was up into the mid-70s last summer, and a solid-average changeup. Another lefty, Rob Kaminsky (13), was mostly over the back injuries that shut him down in 2015, although he dealt with some nagging injuries last year and still isn’t getting fully extended out front to restore the plus curveball that made him a first-round pick in 2013. He hasn’t had a truly healthy season since 2014, although his arm is fine.
Outfielder Greg Allen (14) was sort of the flavor of the month after a strong showing in the AFL; he’s a switch-hitter and plus runner who can play center but lacks pop because he has no load and doesn’t use his lower half much. Lefty Shawn Morimando (15) is a four-pitch guy who’s touched 95 mph in short stints but is mostly average across the board, perhaps a back-end starter for someone or a really good swingman for a team with a full rotation (viz., Cleveland). Adam Plutko (16) is a command/control right-hander with marginal stuff, cut from similar cloth as Josh Tomlin. And we’re still waiting for 2014 second-rounder Grant Hockin to return from Tommy John surgery after he missed the last two years recovering.
2017 impact: I mentioned how Diaz could get the playing time he deserves, and Gonzalez could also make the team as a utility guy. Morimando is in line for some innings, but it’s more likely in the bullpen given the Indians’ surfeit of starters at the moment.
Sleeper: Castro did enough even in a down year to give me confidence that he’s about to break out on offense, especially if he gets just a little stronger heading into his age-20 season.
The fallen: Their 2013 third-round pick, Dace Kime, suddenly couldn’t throw a strike last year, walking 34 in 23 innings with seven hit batters, eventually having Tommy John surgery after a second wild stint in Double-A in July.