The Cardinals’ system is light at the top right now, with only a couple guys anywhere in their upper levels who could substantially help the major league team this year, but the lower levels are well-stocked with upside guys. The Cardinals have been aggressive in Latin America in recent years, right up to the current signing period, and they have already hit on several of the pitchers they’re signing. When the current rotation needs reinforcements, the Cardinals should have the starters ready.
NL Central reports: Cubs | Reds | Brewers | Pirates | Cardinals
1. Alex Reyes, RHP (ranked No. 10)
2. Carson Kelly, C (ranked No. 51)
3. Delvin Perez, SS (ranked No. 61)
4. Jack Flaherty, RHP (ranked No. 89)
5. Harrison Bader, OF (Just Missed)
6. Magneuris Sierra, OF
7. Sandy Alcantara, RHP
8. Junior Fernandez, RHP
9. Alvaro Seijas, RHP
10. Dakota Hudson, RHP
Non-top-100 guys
Harrison Bader just missed my main list because I’m not sold on the bat enough to say he’s a sure regular or better than that, but he can play all over the outfield and hit extremely well for a guy who went from the SEC to Double-A in less than a year. Magneuris Sierra is a plus defender in center with great instincts and above-average to plus speed. He goes the other way well but needs to take better at-bats and start looking for pitches he can pull.
Sandy Alcantara and Junior Fernandez both reached high-A last year after starting in low-A, with Fernandez coming into the year ahead because he was more polished but Alcantara having the better performance, especially in command and control, to edge ahead. They’re both high-ceiling starter prospects. Alcantara has hit 101 mph and sits mid-90s, while Fernandez might top out at “only” 98, and both guys have better changeups than breaking balls. Alcantara has some feel for a curveball, but given how fast his arm is, that his curve is still a below-average pitch is a concern. Fernandez’s curveball is even further below, and he might need to switch to a slider. Alcantara’s other advantage is height; Fernandez is just a shade over 6 feet and doesn’t get as much plane as Alcantara does. They’re both great prospects with high-end starter upside, so pick your poison.
Alvaro Seijas was in the Gulf Coast League last year but would show four plus pitches, with a fastball up to 95 mph and hammer curveball at 75-79 mph along with a slider and changeup. That said, he’s a 5-foot-10 right-hander who didn’t miss a whole lot of bats (16 percent) in the complex league, so how plus those pitches are and whether they’ll play at higher levels are fair questions. There’s still a ton of upside here; the fastball and curveball alone would make him a high-ceiling prospect.
Dakota Hudson was the Cards’ second pick in last year’s draft after he dominated the SEC with a plus cutter. Some teams were scared off by his arm action and questionable fastball command. I think he ends up a fourth starter, but he’ll go as far as the cutter takes him and his health permits. Right-hander Luke Weaver (11) made nice strides last year by introducing a cutter to his fastball/changeup mix. His fastball is still true and up in the zone too often for me to expect him to carry his minor-league success as a starter over to the same role in the majors. The Cards could give him another year to start but might think about whether he’s better in a multi-inning relief role, in which his fastball might sit mid-90s and hitters will see him only once.
Lefty Marco Gonzales (12) missed all of last year after Tommy John surgery. We’ll have to see if his stuff returns completely, as he pitched with a 45 fastball, 70 change and above-average curveball; any loss of velocity might make him a non-prospect. Right-hander Jacob Woodford (13) had a solid if unspectacular pro debut, pitching at age 19 in low-A the whole season. He’s a sinker-slider guy who didn’t generate as many ground balls (47 percent) as I would have guessed based on the pure stuff, but I still like the build, the delivery and the potential for future plus command.
Paul DeJong (14) joined Bader as 2015 draftees who went to Double-A in their first full pro seasons, hitting for power with a .324 OBP and a 26 percent strikeout rate. He’s a third baseman who can play short in an emergency, so there’s at least some utility infielder potential. Despite what the stat line implies, he’s really short and quick to the ball with good hip rotation, so if he makes better swing decisions, he could be a regular. Jordan Hicks (15) made his pro debut last summer and was throwing 92-97 with good angle and the makings of a 55 slider. He doesn’t have much command or feel yet, and it’s a 30 changeup, but he’s an athletic 19-year-old with a good arm.
The Cards signed Cuban shortstop Randy Arozarena (16) for $1.25 million in July, and he’ll make his debut this spring. He’s a plus runner with a short swing who gets a lot of praise for his all-around instincts and is about to turn 22. He hit well in the Cuban Serie Nacional when he last played in 2014, so he should be ready for high-A. Shortstop Edmundo Sosa (17) didn’t hit in his full-season debut (.270/.307/.343, mostly in Low-A) at age 20, and even his defense backed up a little bit. I’m not writing him off. He’ll still be 21 and hasn’t lost a step or given any reason to think he can’t at least become a quality backup at short, even if he doesn’t hit.
The Cards are converting Bryce Denton (18) to third base, and if that takes and his BP power starts showing up in games, he might take a huge leap forward. He’s got a good approach already, but it’s just contact now, and at third base … well, I don’t love errors as a statistic, but 21 errors in 41 games in the field is not giving me positive feels. The Cardinals took outfielder Dylan Carlson (19) in the supplemental round in 2016 and ran him out to center field in the GCL; he’s a switch-hitter with a chance to develop some power, but it’s 50/50 on his staying in center.
Others of note: Right-hander Connor Jones (20) was the Cardinals' second-round pick out of the University of Virginia, so job one is to beat the Virginia out of his delivery. He has a good body with average stuff and command, but prior to the delivery change, he would show sinking life up to 92 mph. Third-rounder Zac Gallen might be a back-end starter with three pitches but nothing above-average; fourth-rounder Jeremy Martinez looks like a good backup catcher whom pitchers will love working with and who will at least put the ball in play. … Nick Plummer broke his hamate bone and missed all of 2016, and after a disastrous debut in 2015, his stock is on the ropes. … The Cardinals have some fifth-starter types in lefty Austin Gomber and right-hander Mike Mayers, with Mayers closer to the majors. … The Cards also signed two other Cubans of note last summer: Right-hander Johan Oviedo was reportedly 94-96 mph and is already listed at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds at age 18; he threw a handful of innings in the DSL after signing. They added another Cuban shortstop, 18-year-old Jonathan Machado, and gave him $2.35 million. He’s a plus runner but has a long way to go physically to get to an average hit tool, let alone showing any power.
2017 impact: Reyes is almost certainly in the Cardinals’ rotation right now. Weaver or Mayers could make some spot starts if there’s an injury, and Weaver could end up in the bullpen. I wouldn’t rule out Bader surfacing, though right now there’s no playing time for him.
Sleeper: Of anyone not currently on the top 100, Alcantara has the best chance to leap into the top 50 next year, especially if his breaking ball ends up even average over the course of 2017.
The fallen: Oscar Mercado, taken 57th overall in 2014, has yet to post an OBP over .303, and he hit just .215/.296/.217 in high-A last year while playing erratic defense at short.