The Reds’ rebuilding effort has yielded a system that is deep in likely big leaguers but a little light on potential stars, as most of their trades added good quantity over the highest quality. There’s one guy here with a real chance to be a 60 or better in the majors; there are others with similar potential but much higher risk factors. It didn’t help that so many of the Reds' top-20 prospects were hurt for all or part of 2016.
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1. Nick Senzel, 3B (ranked No. 15)
2. Amir Garrett, LHP (ranked No. 39)
3. Jesse Winker, OF (ranked No. 49)
4. Luis Castillo, RHP (ranked No. 94)
5. Robert Stephenson, RHP (ranked No. 99)
6. Tyler Mahle, RHP (Just Missed)
7. Taylor Trammell, OF
8. Vlad Gutierrez, RHP
9. Tyler Stephenson, C
10. Jimmy Herget, RHP
Non-top-100 guys
Tyler Mahle just missed my top 100 in large part because he became so homer-prone in Double-A. He pitches off his 92-95 mph fastball to an extreme degree. Although he has the off-speed stuff to start, he has to start using those other pitches more so hitters don’t cheat on the heater.
Taylor Trammell is a superb athlete, but he’s more than your stereotypical Georgia high school multi-sport guy who can’t play baseball. He has a real approach and good instincts. Playing baseball full-time might be all he needs to blossom into a top 100 guy.
Vlad Gutierrez was throwing 94-97 mph in workouts for teams before the Reds signed him for $4.75 million in late summer. He’s a curveball-changeup guy, somewhat similar to Raisel Iglesias but with a much better chance to start.
Tyler Stephenson gets a mulligan for a bad 2016, having suffered a concussion and a wrist injury that ruined his year. He’s a power-hitting catcher with a plus arm but questions about his receiving and hit tool that he couldn’t answer while hurt last year.
Jimmy Herget struck out a third of the batters he faced as a reliever in the High-A Florida State League. He’s a low three-quarters guy, dealing 94-96 mph heat with a plus slider, a relief-only prospect with a chance to be a good reliever -- and soon.
Second baseman Alex Blandino (11) played hurt all year and hit a miserable .232/.333/.337 in Double-A at age 23. His best tool was his bat, so if it was more than just the injury, he’s running out of time to be a prospect.
Right-hander Jackson Stephens (12) throws 92-95 mph and an above-average curveball. The former quarterback moved up to Double-A last year, increased his strikeout rate by about 33 percent and still has some growth left as a pitcher who could make him a fourth starter in time.
Outfielder Aristides Aquino (13) bounced back from an injury-plagued 2015 to hit .273/.327/.519 as a 22-year-old in High-A. His plate discipline isn’t great, but he has real power and above-average speed with everyday upside in right field.
Shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez (14) signed with the Reds for $7 million as an amateur free agent. Most clubs seemed to have him as a utility infielder, but the Reds obviously think he has a chance to be an everyday shortstop who’s not far from the majors, with plus speed and a present average (or better) hit tool.
Infielder Calten Daal (15) played just 40 games around injuries. He has good hand-eye coordination to hit and plus speed and probably ends up at second base rather than shortstop, so he could be a good utility player if he doesn’t hit enough to be a regular at the keystone.
Right-hander Ian Kahaloa (16), the Reds’ fifth-round pick in 2015 out of Hawaii, throws up to 95 mph with plus control but not command. He’s still learning how to pitch, rather. Sal Romano (17) has huge stuff, throwing strikes with his fastball and curveball, but the delivery screams bullpen. In his defense, he has never been hurt and just had his best season to date in his Double-A debut.
Antonio Santillan (18) can hit 100 mph but can’t find the plate. If he figures it out enough to throw strikes, he has closer upside. Shed Long (19) is a fringy defender at second who has some feel to hit from the left side, projecting as an extra guy at best. Former first-rounder Nick Travieso (20) hasn’t progressed as a starter, and with his slightly low slot and trouble keeping his front shoulder closed, it’s probably time for him to shift to the bullpen.
Sleeper: Trammell’s pro debut bore out pre-draft claims that he had an advanced approach at the plate for a high school kid. The Reds have a lot of upside in their system -- starting with right-handers Ian Kahaloa and Jackson Stephens, plus outfielder Aristides Aquino -- but Trammell could be a top 50 prospect next offseason.
2017 impact: There’s an opportunity for Robert Stephenson in the Reds’ rotation, but he’s going to have to earn it in March by showing that he can command his fastball and that his velocity is back where it should be. Senzel is the type of advanced college bat who could reach the majors in his first full pro season, the way Andrew Benintendi and Dansby Swanson did last year.
The fallen: Travieso was the 14th overall pick in 2012 but hasn’t developed at all. The Reds' third-round pick in 2016, shortstop Blake Trahan, hit .263/.325/.361 as a 22-year-old in High-A and showed he’s way too vulnerable to high fastballs.