Trades to put the team in the playoffs have stripped the upper levels almost bare, and what’s left above A-ball isn’t close to the majors or very valuable. The Blue Jays do have a lot of pitching with long-term potential that has yet to reach Double-A, and their short-season clubs in Vancouver and Bluefield had some exciting talent. Overall, it’s a weak system that they’ll have to rebuild over the next few years via the draft while still trying to keep the big league team in contention, a difficult balance to strike for any organization.
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1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B (Ranked No. 48)
2. Anthony Alford, OF (Ranked No. 55)
3. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP (Ranked No. 72)
4. Bo Bichette, SS/2B
5. Richard Urena, SS
6. Jon Harris, RHP
7. Conner Greene, RHP
8. Justin Maese, RHP
9. Rowdy Tellez, 1B/DH
10. Reese McGuire, C
Non-top 100 guys
The Blue Jays picked Bo Bichette in the second round last June, their best selection as they went for his athleticism and hand-eye coordination. In 91 pro at-bats all he did was hit .427/.451/.732. Granted, his brother had a huge GCL campaign too and never hit again, but Bo is a better athlete and fielder, and swings for contact rather than pull power. He’s probably going to end up a very good offensive second baseman, not a shortstop.
Richard Urena is a shortstop who hits for power and spent most of 2016 in High-A at age 20, making a lot of hard contact and even drawing a few walks, although it didn’t carry over to a late-season promotion to Double-A. Both he and Bichette are somewhere in the 30-40 names beyond the top 100, guys with a good chance to gradually make it there over the next year.
Jon Harris was the team’s first pick (29th overall) in the 2015 draft. After a rough pro debut he made quite a bit of progress in 2016, throwing 90-93 mph complemented with a slider (clocked up to 86-87 mph), curveball and a rudimentary changeup. He’s a solid ground-ball guy, and there’s a chance he ends up with four average pitches, providing third-starter upside.
Conner Greene has a huge arm and has touched 98 mph as a starter, but he shortened his stride last year, which cost him command, made it harder for him to get to his arm side consistently, and took some bite off his hard slider. If the Jays can restore his delivery, he has No. 2 starter upside.
Justin Maese is a very athletic kid from El Paso, Texas, who sinks the ball well at 90-94 mph, generating a 60 percent ground-ball rate last year between short-season and Low-A. He throws strikes and has feel for a breaking ball and changeup, and I think he projects as a No. 3 starter (with a long way to go).
Rowdy Tellez had a strong year as a 21-year-old in Double-A, taking advantage of New Hampshire’s friendliness to left-handed power hitters, but he’s a poor defender at first who gets beat by good velocity and pitchers who can locate off-speed stuff. His stats point to a big league regular, but it’s misleading because of the park and the lower caliber of competition.
Reese McGuire was acquired in the trade that also brought in Francisco Liriano. He has the floor of a backup catcher in the majors and the ceiling of a good backup catcher in the majors. He can really catch and throw, never strikes out, but doesn’t make hard enough contact for that to matter.
T.J. Zeuch (11) was the Jays’ first-round pick in 2016, and throws from a high slot for 92-96 mph with good plane as well as an average slider. It’s hard to turn over a changeup from that high and there’s some reliever risk, especially since he’s had injury troubles before. Outfielder Harold Ramirez (12) also came in the Liriano/McGuire trade and is probably a good bench bat, although he has hit enough in the past where you might hope for an everyday player in left. He has no defensive value out there, however, and the body doesn’t project for power.
The Blue Jays took Arizona prep right-hander Pat Murphy (13) in the third round in 2013 but he missed his entire senior year after Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2014, threw four innings, got hurt again, and again, and didn’t make it back until 2016, when he threw 90 innings across two levels. It’s remarkable he could still throw as hard as he did, 91-96 mph with good life, after essentially missing three years, but if he’s past that he might surface as a back-end starter.
Lefty Ryan Borucki (14) throws up to 96 mph and adds a plus changeup, and is now on the Jays’ 40-man roster because he would have been Rule 5 eligible (and taken). He had a full, healthy year, a first for him, and dominated Low-A after about as bad an April in High-A as you could have (10 HR allowed in 20 IP, 14.40 ERA). Max Pentecost (15) can hit but has been hurt so often -- playing just 99 career games since he was drafted in June 2014 -- and caught only one game in all of 2016, so at this point he’s positionless.
Toronto also has a number of pitching prospects who are starting now but are much more likely to be relievers in the majors, including right-hander Francisco Rios and lefty Angel Perdomo, both of whom pitched in the Futures Game. Rios was throwing 93-96 mph that day, Perdomo 91-92, both seeing their fastballs play up in short stints, but neither really has the second pitch to be a starter.
From last year’s draft the Jays also have second-rounder J.B. Woodman, an outfielder with power and speed who beats up on bad pitching, striking out in nearly a third of his pro at-bats after signing; third-rounder Zach Jackson, a college right-hander who might have two plus pitches out of the pen; and fourth-rounder Josh Palacios, who can put the ball in play but lacks power or speed to profile as a regular anywhere in the outfield.
2017 impact: I don’t see anyone here likely to see the majors this season unless it’s an emergency call-up for a middle reliever, or if a catcher gets hurt and the Jays recall McGuire to back up behind the plate.
Sleeper: I’m a big Maese fan. He was underscouted in high school for a variety of reasons, but he’s athletic, his arm works and he can sink the ball. I also believe infielder Bo Bichette will see the top 100; his ability to hit is going to trump some mechanical concerns scouts have had about his swing.
The fallen: The Blue Jays took troubled prep right-hander Clint Hollon in the second round in 2013, but his pro career was marked by suspensions and injuries, and he totaled just 76 innings in three and a half seasons before the Jays released him this offseason.