It took a strong pitching draft last summer to keep the Orioles out of the bottom three farm systems, and once again they have a solitary representative on the top 100. There’s little to no star potential anywhere here above short-season ball, and after their No. 1 prospect it’s not clear there’s a future regular position player in the system. The players who might get there also carry at least one significant risk factor.
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1. Chance Sisco, C (Ranked No. 69)
2. Cody Sedlock, RHP
3. Keegan Akin, LHP
4. Hunter Harvey, RHP
5. Chris Lee, LHP
6. Ryan Mountcastle, 3B
7. Jomar Reyes, 3B
8. Trey Mancini, 1B
9. Tanner Scott, LHP
10. Austin Hays, OF
The Orioles led off their 2016 draft with Cody Sedlock and Keegan Akin, and both looked good initially. Sedlock was a top guy on my draft board, just missing the top 100; he’s a three-pitch starter with mid-rotation upside, although some scouts don’t love his delivery and I think he needs to get off the extreme third-base end of the rubber. Akin offers more probability with a lower ceiling; he throws 92-96 mph, had a 30 or 40 breaking ball in the spring, but over the summer and in instructs his arm seemed faster and he was flashing a plus curve and change. He’s a squat 6-footer and doesn’t get plane on his fastball, but has enough command and control that he could pitch with it without becoming homer-prone.
Hunter Harvey finally had Tommy John surgery and probably won’t pitch at all until instructional league; since Aug. 1, 2014, he’s thrown 12 innings. Chris Lee saw his velocity spike and promptly felt shoulder soreness, ending his season in late May; the Orioles called it a lat strain and he didn’t have surgery, and should be pitching in spring training. He can sink the ball in the low 90s -- although it can flatten out when he reaches back for 95 -- and his slider is a left-on-left weapon. He may be a high-ceiling reliever, although it’s hard to turn away from a starter this athletic.
Ryan Mountcastle needs a position; he lacks the arm or footwork for third. He can mash a lefty and has the size to eventually hit for power. Jomar Reyes fought through injuries in a dismal 2016 season (.228/.271/.336), although he was only 19 in High-A; he has the most offensive upside in the system and might stay at third base, but needs to add power.
Trey Mancini’s swing isn’t pretty but he’s hit enough the past two years to earn a major league trial, one he won’t get in Baltimore while the team has Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo occupying first base and DH. I still question whether he can hit and produce enough power at the same time to be a regular, but someone has to try him out.
Tanner Scott can hit 100 mph and sometimes find the plate with it. Austin Hays is a 55-60 runner with some power and a plus arm for right.
Right-hander Matthias Dietz (11) has a big frame and arm strength with a fastball up to 95 mph; he struggled to throw strikes going from junior college to the New York-Penn League. Left fielder D.J. Stewart (12), their first-round pick in 2015, didn’t hit in Low-A and will probably end up at first base. He hit better in High-A, not enough for a no-defense guy, but enough to keep his prospect status alive; a big year in Double-A would do wonders for his outlook.
Right-hander Ofelky Peralta (13) has touched 98 mph but sits 93-96, although command and secondary pitches aren’t there; he’ll need a changeup at some point, but the main priority is fastball command. Outfielder Randolph Gassaway (14) was the O’s 16th-round pick in 2013 out of a Georgia high school and didn’t reach full-season ball until this summer, but he had a 50-game breakout there for average and power, making contact, and playing well enough in left. He has to do it over a full season now, and at age 22 this season probably needs to do it in High-A.
Lefty Brian Gonzalez (15) had a so-so year in Low-A at age 20; armed with a plus change and average fastball, he needs a better breaking ball plus another half-grade or so of fastball command to project as a starter. Reliever Garrett Cleavinger (16) has touched 95 mph, even stretched out over longer stints, and shows an above-average breaking ball; he’s been working on a changeup, but he has to throw more strikes than he did in High-A last summer. Third baseman Drew Dosch (17) came back too soon from a knee injury but hit well in the second half once he was fully healthy; he might sneak into a second-division starter role despite his slow progress.
Lefty John Means (18) has a plus curveball and average changeup, big league control, but perhaps not enough fastball; he has the feel and the secondary pitches to start. Center fielder Cedric Mullins (19) is just 5-foot-8 but can turn around a fastball and runs enough to stay in center. He was 21 last year, but posted just a .321 OBP in Low-A and needs better off-speed pitch recognition to be a real prospect. David Hess (20) came back heavy this year and lost his delivery, resulting in a washout season spent struggling in Bowie’s rotation.
On the injury front, two former top-10 prospects are working their way back. Branden Kline is coming back from Tommy John surgery and should be ready to go this spring, while Gray Fenter will be out a bit longer after his own.
2017 impact: Probably nobody; the team has no obvious openings on the roster, and only Trey Mancini is clearly ready. Lee or Hess could end up in the bullpen in the second half.
Sleeper: Although Reyes was my O’s sleeper last year, I’d still say he has the best chance of anyone in the organization to leap into the top 100, given his age of 19 and huge power potential.
The fallen: Hunter Harvey, the team’s first-round pick in 2013, could be a superstar, but he has fought one injury after another before finally going under the knife. You can add him to the list of Orioles prospects who’ve either failed to develop, gotten hurt or both.