The Rays depend on their farm system as much as any team, but years of poor drafts have left them at a real disadvantage, something they’ve managed to get around only with some shrewd trades. That said, their past few drafts are starting to bear fruit, they have a pair of very promising Latin American teenagers, and they’ve aimed for a bit more upside in recent deals. So there’s some quiet upside here -- it could be a top-15 system in a year, maybe better with a strong draft.
AL East reports: Orioles | Red Sox | Yankees | Rays | Blue Jays
1. Willy Adames, SS (Ranked No. 43)
2. Brent Honeywell, RHP (Ranked No. 54)
3. Jose De Leon, RHP (Ranked No. 73)
4. Chih-Wei Hu, RHP
5. Jacob Faria, RHP
6. Jamie Schultz, RHP
7. Lucius Fox, SS
8. Jake Bauers, 1B
9. Casey Gillaspie, 1B
10. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP
Non-top 100 guys
Chih-Wei Hu (“third base!”) is a four-pitch starter with average or better command and a palmball-changeup that might be an out pitch for him (or just a trick pitch hitters will adjust to). He's probably not a high-ceiling guy but definitely in the back end of a rotation.
Jacob Faria just didn’t get going all year in 2016, not in his delivery or mental approach, but he has two plus pitches in his fastball (93-96 mph) and changeup as well as a usable cutter. It didn’t help matters that his mechanics were way off from the stretch. He has more upside than Hu, but there’s more volatility in his projection after the down year and some outings where his velo was off.
Jamie Schultz has had two big years starting in the minors, leading all of Triple-A with 163 strikeouts in 2016, but he’s a 5-foot-10 right-hander without the command or the changeup to start, and probably profiles better as a high-leverage reliever. Lucius Fox signed with the Giants in 2015 for $6 million as an international free agent (he’s Bahamian by birth), then came to the Rays in the Matt Duffy trade last summer. He’s a no-doubt shortstop with plus speed, but was overmatched as an 18-year-old in the full-season Sally League last year and, it turned out, was playing through a foot injury.
Jake Bauers is limited to first base and lacks power, but he hits and gets on base, with a real knack for going the other way. It’s a tough profile, but he could make a long career as a sometime regular, sometime platoon guy. Casey Gillaspie, their first-round pick in 2014, had a huge bounce-back year after a lost 2015, raking in Double-A and Triple-A to put himself on the cusp of a promotion. He’s a switch-hitter with a better swing from the left, although he doesn’t get his legs involved to project big power. He’s disciplined enough that he might hit 20 homers anyway through hard contact and favorable counts.
Third baseman Josh Lowe (11) was the Rays’ first pick in 2016 (13th overall), but there’s a broad range of opinions on what kind of prospect he is -- or if he’d be better off on the mound. He has power and a 70 arm, but his swing gets very long and he’s going to strike out a lot unless that changes. His footwork at third isn’t great, although his hands are fine and the arm will play anywhere. I thought he was a reach, but understand the Rays seeing 30-homer upside here if he hits.
The 2015 pro debut of shortstop Adrian Rondon (12) after he signed for $2.95 million in 2014 out of the Dominican Republic was a disaster, so while his last summer wasn’t great it was an improvement, and he didn’t turn 18 until after the Appy League season started. There’s still hope, especially now that he’s in better shape, although he may have to play third if he’s on the same roster as Fox.
The Rays signed outfielder Jesus Sanchez (13) for $400,000 the same year they signed Rondon, and Sanchez has outhit him, with a .329/.351/.549 line last year. He plays a bit out of control at the plate and in the field, where he runs well enough to cover right field and has a 60 arm. I’m generally skeptical of guys who “just hit” but don’t walk or show a lot of power; Howie Kendrick was supposed to be one, but his impatience held him back. We’ll see if Sanchez can tone it down enough.
Daniel Robertson (14) looks like a quality utility infielder; he can’t play short well enough to be a regular and so far hasn’t hit enough to be one at second or third. Michael Santos (15) is a lanky, projectable right-hander with heat that sits in the low 90s and a true curveball, a potential No. 4 starter who’s had trouble staying healthy -- he has yet to throw more than 60 innings or make more than 12 starts in a season.
Garrett Whitley (16) had a disappointing first full year, striking out in over a quarter of his PAs with just one homer. He can run, play center and should have power, but this isn’t the player the Rays thought they were getting in the first round in 2015. Chris Betts (17) was their second pick that year and came back late last summer from Tommy John surgery; prior to that he was a throw-first catcher with the potential to hit for average and power. If he’s still that guy, he’ll be top five in this system next year.
Others of note: Ryne Stanek can touch 100 mph but hasn’t thrown strikes or stayed healthy for any appreciable period of time. … The Rays acquired Kevin Padlo last January with Corey Dickerson; he hit .229/.358/.413 in Low-A as a 19-year-old, drawing lots of walks but little else. … Ryan Boldt is a big corner outfielder who doesn’t hit for power -- he almost refuses to hit for power, as he goes the other way and doesn’t try to rotate his hips and pull the ball, even though he looks like someone who’d hit 25 homers. If the Rays can get him to change his approach, they might have a power/walks guy. … After Boldt, the Rays took three high school projection arms, Austin Franklin (third round), Easton McGee (fourth) and Zach Trageton (sixth), all long-term projects with good frames.
2017 impact: Just-acquired Jose De Leon moves right into their rotation and is an immediate upgrade over whomever he’s replacing (probably Matt Andriese). If they trade another starter, he’ll probably be replaced by someone else from their high minors. Gillaspie should get a shot at the first base job no later than June, assuming he performs as well in Triple-A as he did in two months there last year.
Sleeper: Because of the upside at bat, Sanchez has the most immediate chance to jump up into the top 100 if he goes to low-A and continues to hit. I’ve mentioned catcher Chris Betts as a breakout candidate behind the plate now that he’s healthy, and I could say the same for shortstop Lucius Fox.
The fallen: Ranked No. 10 here, Taylor Guerrieri was once a top-10 talent in his draft class, a first-round pick and multiple-time top-100 guy, but now looks like a fifth starter, having lost his fastball in 2016 and getting results commensurate with the average (if that) velocity.