Trades have depleted the system’s star power and depth, although Dave Dombrowski’s most recent deal, sending two top prospects to the White Sox for Chris Sale, made sense for a team in win-now mode. The Red Sox have had productive drafts the past two years to provide the system with depth prospects and the 2016 class got off to a strong collective start, so there’s still plenty left here to excite Red Sox fans (or for the next big trade).
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1. Andrew Benintendi, OF (Ranked No. 1)
2. Rafael Devers, 3B (Ranked No. 11)
3. Jason Groome, LHP (Ranked No. 20)
4. Sam Travis, 1B (Ranked No. 98)
5. Travis Lakins, RHP
6. Ronny Raudes, RHP
7. Bobby Dalbec, 3B
8. C.J. Chatham, SS
9. Nick Longhi, 1B
10. Brian Johnson, LHP
Non-top 100 guys
Travis Lakins was my sleeper pick for the Red Sox last year, but was pitching hurt for at least part of the season and was finally shut down at the end of July with an olecranon injury; he’s expected to be fine for camp. He touches 96 mph but pitches more comfortably at 92-93 with a potentially plus curveball and an athletic delivery.
Ronny Raudes was just 18 but spent the year in Low-A Greenville’s rotation. The Nicaraguan teenager has good command of average stuff: an 88-93 mph fastball, an average curveball that might be his best pitch if he gets more power to it, and a solid changeup. He’s a little projectable but not likely to end up with plus stuff, so it’s command and control that will carry him to the majors, with fourth starter upside.
Bobby Dalbec was a two-way player at the University of Arizona who struck out way too much as a hitter, so the Red Sox tried to get him to commit to a single stance and swing in every at-bat, after which he hit .386/.427/.674 in the short-season New York-Penn League with a 23 percent whiff rate, down from over 31 percent in the spring. He’s very strong with plus raw power, but he used the whole field more once he quieted his approach at the plate.
C.J. Chatham was Boston’s second pick in the 2016 draft. He’s an above-average defender at short with pop but struggled after signing due to a hamate injury. Nick Longhi finished second in the Carolina League with 40 doubles as a 20-year-old; he’s disciplined for his age, with a line-drive swing in games and bigger power in BP, but he puts the ball on the ground too much for a guy with his size and strength.
Brian Johnson missed much of 2016 dealing with anxiety disorder, took time off to seek treatment and returned in July to have more success in Triple-A than he had earlier. Anxiety is manageable with some combination of medication, therapy and other remedies, so Johnson’s outlook should be what it was before -- a guy with three or four pitches, nothing plus, with No. 4 or 5 starter potential because of his ability to locate and to change speeds.
First baseman Josh Ockimey (11) was hitting .291/.423/.517 on the morning of July 1 but ran out of gas, hitting .141/.293/.305 the rest of the way, possibly the result of being maxed out physically when he came to camp. He’s first base-only, but there’s enough here that I still give him a chance to become a legitimate everyday player, even if the odds are becoming low due to his age.
Right-hander Mike Shawaryn (12) was Boston’s fifth-round pick but was paid third-round money despite a bad spring at Maryland; he has starter stuff but a rough arm action that points to a bullpen role and possible command issues. Shaun Anderson (13) was the closer on the University of Florida’s powerhouse staff, throwing 91-94 mph plus a mid-80s cutter he uses heavily; he could have three pitches along with his hard curveball, but his short arm action probably limits him to the bullpen.
Michael Chavis (14) struggled while repeating Low-A, and may simply not hit enough to be a big leaguer. Kyri Washington (15) has huge power and is one of the organization's toolsiest prospects, but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss here, which is how he ended up a 23rd-rounder. While he held his strikeout rate constant from his last year in the Big South (with metal bats) and his first full year in pro ball (with wood), it’s still too early to rank him in line with his raw ability.
Danny Mars (16) has fourth outfielder potential with some feel for hitting, above-average speed and a plus arm, lacking only the power to be an everyday guy. Ben Taylor (17) was a senior sign in the seventh round in 2015 out of the University of South Alabama, and reached Double-A in his first full pro season. He has deception in his delivery, missing bats with a 91-93 mph four-seamer with good carry; he could be a middle reliever depending on his breaking ball’s development.
Right-hander Stephen Nogosek (18) throws up to 97 mph with some funk in his delivery that makes it hard for hitters to pick the ball up; he could move to the high minors this year. Lefty Trey Ball (19) throws 90-92 mph out of the pen; among his four pitches the changeup is best, and he’s trying to develop a cutter to compensate for his lack of a true breaking ball.
Some relievers of note: Chandler Shepherd went from the 13th round in 2014 to Triple-A in 2016, mostly on the basis of his control, but he lacks a swing-and-miss pitch to be more than a middle-innings guy. Jamie Callahan touches 96 mph but really lives with a cutter at 88-90, although none of this will matter until he stops walking so many guys (37 in 65⅔ IP last year). The Red Sox converted catcher Jordan Weems, their 2011 third-round pick, to the mound. Weems threw 93-96 right away and is working on a curveball and changeup; we’ll see where his repertoire stands after he has a full year on the mound behind him.
2017 impact: Benintendi already has an everyday job at Fenway and is the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award. Barring injuries, there’s no room in the lineup or rotation for anyone else to break in. Someone like Shepherd could get middle-relief innings during the summer.
Sleeper: Like all command guys, Raudes has to continue to prove he can succeed with average stuff as he moves up the ladder, but it’s impressive enough that he did what he did in full-season ball at low-A Greenville at an age (18) when most guys are still in complex leagues. We’ll see if Travis Lakins is better in 2017, now that he’s completely healthy.
The fallen: Chavis has gone from first-rounder to someone who’s probably 30/70 to make the majors at all given his lack of hitting ability or defensive value. Ty Buttrey was a 2012 fourth-rounder who got first-round money ($1.3 million); he moved to the bullpen in Double-A this year but didn’t have much success there either.