Atlanta set a single-team record with nine players on my top 100 this year. I don't think any organization had ever placed more than seven on the master ranking since I started these in 2008. The rebuilding process that started when John Coppolella took over as GM has seen Atlanta make numerous trades for all manner of prospects, from highly ranked guys like Dansby Swanson to out-of-favor talents like Luiz Gohara. The team has also leaned heavily toward taking high school arms in the past few drafts, and made a big splurge in the 2016 international market.
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1. Dansby Swanson, SS (Ranked No. 2)
2. Ozhaino Albies, SS/2B (Ranked No. 26)
3. Kolby Allard, LHP (Ranked No. 32)
4. Ronald Acuna, CF (Ranked No. 36)
5. Max Fried, LHP (Ranked No. 50)
6. Ian Anderson, RHP (Ranked No. 52)
7. Kevin Maitan, SS (Ranked No. 59)
8. Luiz Gohara, LHP (Ranked No. 77)
9. Sean Newcomb, LHP (Ranked No. 81)
10. Mike Soroka, RHP
Non-top 100 guys
Mike Soroka got some support to be in my top 100. He has a three-pitch arsenal with a high spin rate on a fastball which touches 96 mph, and had a tremendous full-season debut as an 18-year-old in the Low-A Sally League. His arm slot is a little low for a starter, and while he has the height you want, his frame is a bit slight.
Patrick Weigel (11) has a little less upside. He's a 6-foot-6 right-hander out of the University of Houston who dominated low-A and jumped to Double-A in August. He's further along (and two years older), touching 99 mph last summer, showing an above-average breaking ball, a usable changeup, and at least MLB-average control already. He could reach the majors by the end of the year.
Touki Toussaint (12) is a former top-100 prospect whose stuff is still worthy, but he's progressing slower than hoped, although he did throw better in the second half of 2016. He's a super-athletic righty with three pitches, two arguably grading plus. Repeating his delivery has always been an issue for him, hindering his command and control.
Lefty Joey Wentz (13) was Atlanta's first big overslot guy in the 2016 draft and had been under consideration for a top 10-15 pick by some other clubs if he'd been signable there. He gets some Cole Hamels lite comparisons, with a fastball that's largely average, a good changeup (not Hamels good), and an average breaking ball. Hamels was further along at this age, but Wentz was a two-way guy who has real power and is just now getting to pitch full time.
Alex Jackson (14) was the sixth overall pick in 2013 but wore out his welcome in Seattle between poor performances and his on-field demeanor. Atlanta is moving him back to catcher, where offensive expectations will be lower, but he has to iron out in his swing before he can hit for enough average to let his plus power play. Trading for him was a no-brainer, as he's pure upside at a position of chronic scarcity.
Cristian Pache (15) was one of Atlanta's two big bonus babies from the July 2 signing period in 2015, signing for $1.4 million out of the Dominican Republic. He's a 70-grade defender in center now, with a chance to end up an 80, and has a short swing with good contact ability, probably ending up with above-average hit and average power tools. Shortstop Derian Cruz (16) signed at the same time for $2 million; he's stronger and flashier with better tools, but he's raw. With his very athletic body and above-average speed, Cruz projects to stay at short. While his plate discipline numbers were poor in 2016 (five walks and 44 K's at age 17), he didn't look as lost as those numbers indicate.
Scouts suggested I put left-handed reliever A.J. Minter (17) in the top 10, given how good he has been and how close he is to the majors. But the difficulty in predicting reliever performance and their tendency to have shorter career peak pushes them down in my rankings. That said, Minter's pretty good, averaging 96 mph last year and sitting at 97-98 later in the summer, with a plus slider mixed in. He had Tommy John surgery in college and has a rough delivery, so he's just a one-inning guy and carries a bit more risk than most relievers. He also held left-handed batters to a .161/.182/.194 line, striking out 12 of 33 while walking one.
Dustin Peterson (18) had an unheralded breakout year at age 21 in Double-A. He's a future average regular in left, perhaps not more unless there's unforeseen power here. He has a good feel for hitting and really ramped up his efforts at the plate and in the field last year.
Lefty Ricardo Sanchez (19), acquired from the Angels in 2013 for two players no longer with the Halos, pitched a full season for low-A Rome at age 19. His fastball is in the low to mid-90s, touching 97 mph, but he struggles with his command, especially keeping the ball down in the zone. Six-foot-six lefty Kyle Muller (20) is the walking stereotype of the big Texas prep pitcher, with ready-now stuff but not much projection; he dominated the Gulf Coast League.
Third baseman Austin Riley (21) was awful in low-A early but better in the second half; he still has a long way to go on both sides of the ball, with a slider-speed bat and athleticism that hasn't resulted in good defense yet. Travis Demeritte (22) is a plus defender at second base, maybe better, with 60/65 raw power but a history of low contact rates. He raked after the trade (.250/.384/.476 in 152 PA) but still struck out a third of the time. While his contact rate really holds down his probability of having any big-league value, there's a 20 percent chance he figures it out enough that he becomes an MLB regular at second.
Lefty Drew Harrington (23) is a touch-and-feel lefty with an average fastball that might touch 93 mph. He’ll show an above-average slider and changeup and college hitters had a hard time picking up his fastball. Right-hander Bryse Wilson (24) throws 93-95 mph complemented with a hard slider but has a rough delivery. Catcher Abraham Gutierrez (25) is a strong kid with a 70 arm and the chance for some power; Atlanta signed him for about $3.5 million out of Venezuela last July.
2017 impact Swanson will be Atlanta's everyday shortstop and will graduate from these rankings with his first at-bat. Minter should reach the majors if healthy, because there doesn't seem to be any point to keeping him in the minors given his performances. Most of their starting pitching prospects are too far out to project seeing them before late 2018, although Weigel should start the year in Double-A and there's maybe a 10 percent chance he gets a September call-up if he continues to perform well enough to get a midyear bump to Triple-A.
Sleeper: Aside from Soroka, who was too close to the top 100 this year to call him a sleeper, Pache is their best shot for a big breakout guy in 2017. He has the defense in center already and has shown the kind of approach in short-season ball that should lead to a big year in low-A.
The fallen: Former 2012 first-rounder Lucas Sims had a miserable year as a starter, with a 7.56 ERA in Triple-A, allowing 12 homers and walking 37 in 50 innings. He has no plane or life to his fastball and has to move to the bullpen, both for his own sake and because Atlanta has a tsunami of starters on the way. Braxton Davidson fits here as well; he's too passive at the plate and ends up chasing pitchers' pitches, leading all of high-A in strikeouts after getting punched out 184 times in 128 games as a 20-year-old.