Organization ranking: 7
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Rockies prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Brendan Rodgers, SS (11)
2. David Dahl, OF (58)
3. Ryan McMahon, 3B (62)
4. Raimel Tapia, OF (78)
5. Jeff Hoffman, RHP (90)
6. Jon Gray, RHP
7. Forrest Wall, 2B
8. Tom Murphy, C
9. Kyle Freeland, LHP
10. Antonio Senzatela, RHP
Overview
The Rockies remain loaded with hard-throwing arms and athletic position players, adding the best player in the 2015 draft class when they took Brendan Rodgers with the third overall pick. Jon Gray was a two-time top 100 prospect who came off the list this year after someone in the Rockies organization messed up his delivery, shortening his stride and taking away all of his power. He now has zero deception, doesn't get over his front side at all and has lost a couple of mph off everything, going from a 7-grade slider to a 5. Every scout I asked about him put his future in the bullpen. Getting him back to his delivery from college would go a long way to restoring his promise. Forrest Wall is a plus runner with great hand-eye coordination; he's not a big guy but able to keep his bat in the zone for a long time so that he might grow into average power. His arm limits him to second base, and he probably won't be more than average on defense there.
Tom Murphy's 2014 season ended after 27 games with a shoulder injury, and he wasn't 100 percent for much of 2015 (or else he would likely have seen the big leagues sooner). He's an average receiver who has shown a plus arm in the past, with plus power but increasing trouble with contact as he has moved up to the high minors. Kyle Freeland might be a little low here, but he missed the first half of 2015 after surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He was throwing 92 to 96 mph as a starter, with a plus slider that comes in on the same plane as the fastball and an improving mid-80s changeup. The slider isn't consistent but is sometimes a wipeout pitch, and if he can stay healthy and get that changeup to average, he would be a top 100 guy again next winter. Antonio Senzatela has a lower ceiling but nice probability as a back-end starter, with good velocity but nothing else plus.
Trevor Story (11) might still end up an everyday player in the middle infield, maybe for the Rockies if Jose Reyes is suspended under MLB's new domestic violence policy. Story's defense has been up and down at shortstop, but I think he could be close enough to average there that his bat will make up for any deficiencies, with power and speed but a low average. He's probably too good to be just someone's utility infielder, but he might not fit the current vogue for plus-range defenders at short. Right-hander Jesus Tinoco (12) was acquired in the Troy Tulowitzki trade; his fastball sits in the mid-90s with an above-average to plus-grade slider. He lacks only a solid changeup for now but comes with midrotation potential.
Catcher Dom Nunez (13) continued to impress at the plate -- hitting .335/.444/.607 with all 13 of his homers in the second half in the Sally League -- and he was strong receiving but saw a big drop in his caught-stealing rate. Right-hander Peter Lambert (14) is a projectable high school arm, the team's second-round pick in 2015 -- I really liked the Rockies' draft class -- whose heat sits in the low 90s now. He will project to the mid-90s as he fills out, with a chance for three above-average pitches and a good delivery. German Marquez (15), picked up from Tampa Bay in the Jake McGee/Corey Dickerson trade, is throwing 93 to 95 mph with a plus curveball. He tosses strikes but is short on command. He's a power reliever as is, needing an average changeup and better command to profile as a midrotation starter.
Poor Miguel Castro (16) was not ready for the big leagues in 2015, but the fastball/changeup combo should eventually make him a good late-game relief option who can get right- and left-handed hitters out. Mike Nikorak (17), the team's second pick (at the top of the sandwich round) in 2015, lost his delivery and the strike zone after signing, walking 32 batters in 17 ⅔ pro innings (a 29 percent walk rate, if you're curious) with an 11.72 ERA. He had been struggling with his delivery since the spring, when he was throwing 97 mph early but coming apart deeper in starts, with his release point drifting back and causing his curveball to lose depth. It's a rebuild for the Rockies' player development staff, but the upside could be a No. 2 starter if they clean him back up to where he was in 2014.
Fourth-rounder David Hill (18) has fourth-starter upside with good feel and two above-average pitches. They have a passel of intriguing relief prospects; lefty Sam Moll throws 93 to 95 mph with a slider that should be good enough to get lefties out in a specialist role, while right-handed reliever Carlos Estevez throws 96 to 98 mph, but the slider and changeup are both below average. Also keep an eye on Ryan Castellani -- a skinny but still projectable right-hander who throws a ton of strikes but needs to add some velocity as he fills out -- and Dillon Thomas -- an outfielder who had a dismal year in 2015 in the Cal League but has retooled his swing so he's no longer going uphill, using his legs more and getting a consistent hand path through contact.
2016 impact
Story's role may depend on Reyes' status. Gray is probably in the Opening Day rotation. The Rockies don't have a true everyday catcher on the roster, so a healthy Murphy could seize that role at any point.
The fallen
Rosell Herrera is a shortstop converted to center field, but he has had chronic wrist injuries for the past two years and has been unable to get out of the California League. There's good reason to suspect he'll never be healthy enough again to hit like he did in 2013.
Sleeper
Tinoco just hadn't pitched that much before 2015 -- only 102 innings, all in short-season ball, since he entered the United States. But he showed that he could miss bats and throw strikes, giving up just three runs in his first 35 innings for Asheville before one bad start to end the season. The development of his changeup will be the biggest key for him.