Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2016 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
This is my ninth such ranking for Insider, and this time around there's a ton of turnover on the list thanks to the big year for rookies in 2015. In fact, my No. 1 and No. 3 prospects from last year won the Rookie of the Year awards in the NL and AL, respectively, and the Nos. 6 and 15 prospects were the runners-up in the AL. Eleven of my top 20 prospects last year graduated to the majors.
As usual, the list is heavy on position players up the middle, with a fifth of the top 100 currently playing shortstop. And there's a slew of center fielders on the list, but it's very light on catchers and third basemen. There also is a bit of a renaissance for left-handed starters right now, with a dozen on the list this year. The back of the list seems, just at a glance, to be the youngest I've had in years, thanks in part to all the graduations from the high minors in the past year.
The guidelines
The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.
Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.
I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purpose of this exercise. I also exclude Cuban players who are considered professional free agents by Major League Baseball by virtue of their experience in Cuba's Serie Nacional de Béisbol. As such, this list excludes Byung-Ho Park and Kenta Maeda, but it will consider Cuban players whom MLB treats as amateurs, like Yusniel Diaz (who is in the rankings) and Yadier Alvarez.
When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplemented with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives, as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects that are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and it gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.
I use the 20 to 80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power, for instance. David Ortiz has 20 speed. Andrelton Simmons is an 80 defender with an 80 arm. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90 to 92 mph, with 1 to 2 mph off that for a lefty.
I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the Top 100 in 2015. An ineligible player (labeled as "NE" for not eligible in the 2015 rank area) was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an unranked player (labeled "NR" for not ranked) was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers lists ("SL") -- I listed a player or two per team in my 2015 team-by-team prospect rankings -- and identified those on my list of 10 players who just missed the cut ("JM").
51. Alex Verdugo, OF
Age: 19 (5/15/96) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205
Top level: High-A | 2015: NR
Verdugo was widely viewed as a first-round talent going into the 2014 draft, but an inconsistent spring and questions about his maturity led him to slip into the second round, where the Dodgers grabbed him in what now looks like a brilliant bit of opportunism. Only Corey Seager has a higher ceiling among Dodgers position-player prospects than Verdugo, who has special ability at the plate and when he's throwing, although ultimately he's going to end up in right field. At the plate, Verdugo has great bat speed and the ability to make quick adjustments, reacting well even when seeing an off-speed pitch in a fastball count. He started slow in Great Lakes, but those adjustments kicked in around the Midwest League All-Star break, after which he hit .349/.372/.460 with only 16 Ks in 200 plate appearances. He was then promoted to Rancho Cucamonga and raked.
He looks like a 20-homer, high-batting-average hitter who can play plus defense in a corner with a 70 arm and add a little value on the bases.
52. Anthony Alford, OF
Age: 21 (7/20/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205
Top level: High-A | 2015: NR
Alford's path to the top 100 has been a strange one. A first-round talent out of high school in 2012, he chose instead to pursue college football -- despite concussion risks and essentially no chance of an NFL career -- and slipped to the third round, meaning the decision probably cost him nearly a million dollars. He went through a tumultuous year at Southern Miss, was arrested for assault and entered a "pretrial diversion program," transferred to Ole Miss, redshirted a year, saw his parents both arrested for selling oxycodone, got married, and left the Ole Miss football team partway through his first active season with the club. Through all of that, he had all of 100 plate appearances in pro ball before heading to Australia last winter to get another 150 plate appearances before spring training.
That history makes his performance in 2015 all the more surprising, as the limited reps and long layoffs did nothing to dull his instincts or approach. He turned out to be a patient, disciplined hitter who could lay off tough pitches inside and showed good reads in center field. Alford's approach included a strong willingness to take stuff middle-away to the opposite field, but he has the bat speed and strength to hit 15-20 homers as he gets more comfortable pulling the ball. He's a plus runner who, again in somewhat of a surprise, showed good feel for reading pitchers as a base stealer.
Mississippi high school products have had a very rough go of it in the minors; only three position players in the history of the draft who signed out of a Mississippi high school have amassed 1.0 WAR in the major leagues (Charlie Hayes, Bill Hall, and Billy Hamilton). The poor quality of high school baseball in the state is the often-cited reason; hitters come from there and have a hard time adjusting to better pitching in pro ball. For Alford to do what he did speaks to his physical and mental skills on the field, and his substantial upside is a high-OBP speed/power guy who can play at least average defense in center.
53. Kohl Stewart, RHP
Age: 21 (10/7/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: High-A | 2015: 53
Stewart has not missed many bats in pro ball, and that's probably not a great sign. However, he's doing lots of other things we like, such as throwing strikes and generating a lot of ground balls (59 percent of the balls he allowed in play last year), all while still learning his craft as a pitcher. Stewart came into pro ball as a football player who was just learning how to pitch, and in that context, it's impressive how far he has come already just two years into his career with the Twins.
Stewart is up to 96 mph with his four-seamer, albeit without much life, and shows a plus slider and above-average curveball, but he needs more work on the changeup, a pitch he just doesn't use often enough but will have to develop to get lefties out at the next level of the minors. It's not so much that it's a bad pitch, but he lacks confidence in it and still defaults to the breaking stuff in typical changeup counts against left-handed hitters.
He's a great athlete, built for durability, and his ability to keep the ball on the ground should help him rack up 200 innings a year when he reaches the majors. If he can keep cutting down the walks and gets that changeup to be a regular part of his repertoire, he has an extremely high ceiling even without huge strikeout totals because hitters have such a hard time squaring him up. Look for him to make a big leap this year with the move to Double-A, setting him up for a possible MLB debut in mid- to late 2017.
54. Cody Reed, LHP
Age: 22 (4/15/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 220
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Reed was the least famous of the three pitchers Cincinnati acquired from Kansas City for Johnny Cueto, but is likely to end up the most valuable in the end. Reed was a thrower more than a pitcher when the Royals took him in the second round in 2013 out of a junior college in Mississippi, but made a huge leap forward in 2015, cleaning up his body and delivery, suddenly sitting 92-94 mph with a plus changeup and plus control. Reed needs more consistency on the slider; it's 82-85 but only an average pitch at the top end of that range, below which it gets a little slurvy and loses its bite, especially when he lets his arm drop a little and gets on the side of the ball. Despite that, he has been very tough on left-handed hitters because of his quick arm and extension out over his front side. Even flipping a fringy slider away is enough to keep left-handed hitters from pulling the ball against him, and he didn't give up a homer to a lefty all season.
He's slated to start 2016 back in Double-A Pensacola but has nothing left to learn at that level and would benefit from facing older hitters who might lay off that slider in Triple-A. Regardless of where he starts, he seems slated for a late-2016 major league debut and has the upside of an above-average starter.
55. Jorge Mateo, SS
Age: 20 (6/23/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 188
Top level: High-A | 2015: SL
Mateo is the Yankees' highest-profile young Latin American prospect, which is saying something given the passel of players they've signed on the international market in the past two years. On the positive side, he's an 80 runner who makes all the plays at shortstop, not plus defensively now but with the quickness to get there if his hands are soft enough to allow it. He makes a ton of contact with a short stroke that gets the bat right to the ball, but his contact quality has not been good, including a ton of ground balls and a tendency to hit the top half rather than fully square it up.
Shortstop prospects with his skill set -- glove, speed, contact -- tend to fare pretty well even if they never learn to hit with any authority, giving Mateo a high floor as long as he makes some small adjustments to help him on routine plays. If he can become enough of a line-drive hitter to hit for some doubles power -- last year, 59 percent of his balls in play were ground balls or popups, per mlbfarm.com -- then he has All-Star upside and could end up stealing 60 or more bases per year.
56. Josh Bell, 1B
Age: 23 (8/14/92) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 235
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 60
Bell looks as if he should hit for a lot of power, and it's possible that he has lost some of his luster because his output hasn't matched his body type, but he has been ridiculously productive and shown such an advanced feel for the strike zone that it's hard to accept such criticism of his offense. Bell is a natural hitter, with superlative hand-eye coordination and a disciplined approach in which he will still go after the first pitch he can barrel up, even if it's just hard contact the other way. The Pirates have worked to try to get his back side more involved so he can get more leverage into his swing and allow him to hit for more power, but the remainder of his approach, physical and mental, are sound.
Where Bell does truly struggle is on defense, where he played first base as if he were fighting some sort of private war, even backing up through the bag on routine throws from the shortstop. It's a position that can be learned, but Bell will be fortunate to get to average from where his footwork and receiving are now.
There's at least 20-homer power in here, but even at 10-12 homers per season with .375 OBPs, he can be a solid-average regular as long as he can learn the position.
57. Gary Sanchez, C
Age: 23 (12/2/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 230
Top level: MLB | 2015: NR
Sanchez re-established some of his lost prospect value with an improved attitude and better production at the plate, tying his career high in homers (18) in 2015 even though he missed about a month because of two DL stints. Sanchez has 70 power and a 70 arm, and likes to show them both off, but needs work on the other parts of his game, from improving his approach at the plate -- even just having a better plan when he heads to the batter's box would help -- to working on receiving and game-calling. He was more dedicated this year than in years past, when the Yankees had to send him home for his poor work ethic, and at least showed that he can be a good enough defender to stay at the position even if he's never plus there.
His swing has always worked well, and he could hit for high averages if he can just work himself into good counts. Even in a strong AFL performance, he mistimed a lot of pitches and rolled over a lot of stuff soft away. But when he gets a hold of a fastball he can hit it as hard as anyone, and he could easily get to .290/.330/.500 with his power and contact. That hitter, as a mediocre catcher who can still nail one out of three runners, is a borderline MVP candidate, and if Sanchez wants to get there, he can.
58. David Dahl, CF
Age: 21 (4/1/94) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 27
Dahl's 2015 was a lost season in many ways, although it could have been worse, as a spleen injury he suffered in a collision at the end of May cost him only a month rather than the rest of the season. However, his year did end early in mid-August due to knee tendinitis, which also kept him out of the Arizona Fall League.
Dahl is an excellent athlete with great bat speed, plus running speed and above-average range in center field. But injuries have cost him about a year and a half of games, and the lost reps have hindered him at the plate, where his swing is balanced but his approach is way too aggressive. Dahl hunts stuff he can attack early in the count and often gets himself out as a result, rather than working the pitcher to try to get into a better situation and get a hitter's pitch. There's still some star ceiling here, thanks to the athleticism and the bat speed, but it's going to be on him to come up with a better plan at the plate.
As he enters his fifth year in pro ball, this should be a big year for him, as he's supposed to be fully healthy for spring training. A strong start could put him on track to reach the majors in September, and since the Rockies don't have a true center fielder on the roster, there's an opportunity right in front of him.
59. Sean Manaea, LHP
Age: 24 (2/1/92) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 235
Top level: Double-A | 2015: JM
Manaea came over in the Ben Zobrist deal at the trade deadline, barely a month after his 2015 debut, which had been delayed by injuries to an abdominal muscle and to his groin. Manaea was the Royals' second first-round pick in 2013, falling because of a torn hip labrum that required surgery after he signed, but the team's gamble paid off, as Manaea has struck out more than a batter per inning everywhere he has pitched, including a very successful stint in the AFL this past fall.
Manaea has hit 96 mph but really pitches at 90-94 with great deception. The ball can look as if it's coming out the side of his uniform, which has to make for a very uncomfortable at-bat for a left-handed hitter. His slider is long with big tilt, often out of the zone, but effective against both left- and right-handed hitters, as he'll backfoot it to the latter group even in changeup counts. He has a changeup, 84-86, that can get a little firm, and clearly has more confidence in the slider.
Manaea has never had trouble throwing strikes, although it's very much control over command, and might always be that way with the long arm swing. But he was much looser and easier in the Arizona Fall League than at any point since he first tore his hip labrum in March 2013. He's definitely a starter, probably a good league-average one, but possibly a bit more if that deception keeps playing.
60. Jose De Leon, RHP
Age: 22 (8/7/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185
Top level: Double-A | 2015: SL
De Leon has performed above his stuff. His stuff is good, but his performance has been superb, as hitters really don't see the ball well out of his hand, although in Double-A he finally ran into some trouble with the longball. The Puerto Rican right-hander was drafted out of Southern University (Rickie Weeks' alma mater) in the 24th round, but over his two full seasons in pro ball, he has pitched like a first-rounder, with a 92-93 mph fastball that might touch 95 and might also drift down as low as 89, lacking much plane but getting away with otherwise hittable pitches because of his deception. His changeup is plus but his breaking ball is very inconsistent and is probably just a 45 at this point, which really limits his potential ceiling. The spike in homers was probably not just a fluke, as he'll have to get better at commanding all of his stuff, especially the fastball, and will need to keep refining that breaking ball, which he uses more by manipulating the grip and spin to try to keep changing hitters' looks.
He seems like a good bet to be a big league starter, but to get to his ceiling -- a solid-average, 200-plus-inning guy -- he must address one of those weaknesses so that the home runs don't overwhelm the outs he gets via his changeup and deception.
61. Tyler Jay, LHP
Age: 21 (4/19/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: High-A | 2015: NE
Jay was wasted as the closer on last year's University of Illinois team, which made the super regionals and lost when Jay was asked to come out of the bullpen and start an elimination game for the Illini. He does project as a starter in the long run, with two now pitches and the control of a starter, although there's always the potential fallback of returning to a relief role, where those two pitches would probably have him in the majors this year.
Jay has reached 96 mph as a reliever but will probably be more 91-94 as a starter, with a plus slider and probably an average changeup. He's a strike-thrower, with only seven walks in 66 2/3 innings in his junior year, with control ahead of command. He's not very physical at 6 feet 1 and 180 pounds, and he needs to use his lower half more in his delivery if he wants to remain a starter and stay healthy in that role. It's not a very easy arm action to repeat as is, although the process of trying to repeat it 80 times a start might help him incorporate his legs more for greater balance. He has plenty of arm speed, and there's too much feel and control to relegate him to the bullpen as his college team did.
He has a high floor of a good left-handed setup guy -- probably within the year -- but there's mid-rotation upside if he can handle the increased workload.
62. Ryan McMahon, 3B
Age: 21 (12/14/94) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185
Top level: High-A | 2015: 50
Not that the Rockies need a third baseman right now, but they've got a pretty good one on the way up in McMahon, a very athletic fielder with plus raw power from the left side that could translate to 25-30 homers even in a neutral environment. McMahon, the Rockies' second-round pick in 2013, repeated his low-A performance in high-A in 2015 even though he moved from hitter-friendly Asheville to pitcher-friendly Modesto (he hit 15 of his 18 homers on the road). He takes a big cut at the plate with good hip rotation, and there's easy plus power in there, with some inevitable swing-and-miss associated with it. On defense, McMahon has worked his way up to average, with very good range at third but some work to do on routine plays, and has a chance to end up a 55 defender.
McMahon will go to Double-A this year at age 21, the most neutral hitting environment he has played in, and will have to work on recognition of off-speed stuff in addition to his work on defense. The upside is a big-power third baseman who might strike out 150 times a year but should get on base enough to compensate for the low contact rate.
63. Jake Thompson, RHP
Age: 22 (1/31/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 235
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 52
Thompson is a relatively high-floor prospect who should be a fourth starter but has some of the less tangible facets to his game that give him a chance to be a good No. 3. Thompson is built like a workhorse and looks like he should throw harder, but works solid-average at 90-94 mph, moving the ball around well, really commanding the ball in and around the strike zone. He has had a plus slider in the past, using it heavily his first full year in pro ball (in Detroit's system), but it's less consistent now. It's mostly 83-85, and he'll even slow it down in warmups to give it more curveball shape, but I think it needs to be more consistently in the upper end of that range to give it tilt to be a swing-and-miss pitch. His changeup shows average but plays up because of his confidence in the pitch.
He has great feel for pitching and is very aggressive on the mound, pitching a bit like a guy with bigger stuff, which is why he seems so likely to become at least a back-end starter. He has the mentality and command to become a mid-rotation guy in time.
64. Brent Honeywell, RHP
Age: 20 (3/31/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Top level: High-A | 2015: NR
Honeywell was a screwball pitcher in junior college, but the Rays have had him de-emphasize that pitch in favor of the more traditional changeup, which has been a clear out pitch for him so far in pro ball.
Honeywell will touch 96 mph but pitches more at 91-94, without much life on the pitch, so he has to avoid leaving it up in the zone to avoid too much hard contact. The changeup is the separator for him, a pitch that might allow him to be a big-league starter in spite of the lack of movement on the fastball. His breaking ball is more of a functional pitch that he can throw for strikes than a swing-and-miss weapon. He fills up the strike zone and is very confident on the mound. Even after he was hit hard in his first two high-A starts, he didn't flinch, posting a 2.21 ERA over his next 10 outings to close out the season.
His stat line points to a high-ceiling guy, but without a livelier fastball or above-average breaking ball, he's more of a fourth-starter type who should be durable and able to work deep into games.
65. Christian Arroyo, SS
Age: 20 (5/30/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1| Weight: 180
Top level: High-A | 2015: NR
Arroyo was a surprise first-round pick in 2013 -- he was actually the lowest-ranked player on my board taken in the first round that year -- but has since shown why the Giants used the 25th overall pick on him despite all the questions about what position he'd play. Arroyo can really hit, possessing a simple load, good hand acceleration and very good hand-eye coordination, with one pro scout telling me he put a 70 on Arroyo's future hit tool -- that's batting average champion territory.
That one tool will have to carry Arroyo because of the things he can't do. He doesn't have much power or the swing for it, he's a below-average runner, and he's not a shortstop. There was talk before the draft of moving Arroyo behind the plate, but he's probably best suited to second base, where his lack of range or foot speed would be less of an issue. He managed to hit .304/.344/.459 as one of the youngest regulars in the Cal League in 2015, even though he played in one of the league's worst parks for offense, and his feel to hit should carry him to the majors.
Whether he's more than just an everyday player will depend on if he can find a position where his defense goes beyond "adequate" and becomes a real asset.
66. Jorge Polanco, SS
Age: 22 (7/5/93) | B/T: B/R
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 200
Top level: MLB | 2015: NR
Polanco has really raised his profile the past two years, adding about 20 pounds of muscle yet also gaining about a full grade of running speed, all while maintaining excellent contact rates and even handling a position, shortstop, for which he's not that well-equipped.
Polanco is a switch-hitter who makes a ton of contact from both sides. His swings are both short, more so hitting right-handed, where he takes almost no load at all, than left-handed, where he gets a bit more leverage to drive the ball. (He has hit only one homer while batting right-handed over the past two seasons.) He's an above-average runner now, not fleet enough for short but more than enough to handle third or second. Second base is occupied in Minnesota (by Brian Dozier), so Polanco might log a lot of time at short for the Twins or become a super-utility guy who hopes to unseat Trevor Plouffe (and his career .308 OBP) at third base. At either position, he projects as an above-average regular who hits for a ton of contact with 12-15 homers and a .340ish OBP while adding value on defense anywhere but at short.
67. Kyle Tucker, OF
Age: 19 (1/17/97) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 190
Top level: Rookie | 2015: NE
Tucker was the Astros' second first-round pick in 2015, taken fifth overall out of Plant High School in Tampa, which is also the alma mater of his older brother, Astros outfielder Preston, as well as Hall of Famer Wade Boggs.
Tucker is a bat-first prospect, a good athlete with a plus arm who should be fine in right field, but he's here to hit and hit for power. It isn't very pretty at the plate, but it's effective. Tucker stands upright through contact, with fast, confident hands that whip the bat through the zone and generate hard contact even with only moderate hip rotation. He wasn't pitched to too much in school last spring, but didn't have much trouble making contact even when the Astros promoted him to the advanced short-season Appalachian League in mid-summer. The one concern on Tucker is if his short load and quick trigger will hurt him as he faces better fastballs in the zone, where he gets the bat through so quickly he might cut through better stuff. He has 20-25 homer upside with the potential to hit in the upper .200s if he can make that adjustment.
68. Mark Appel, RHP
Age: 24 (7/15/91) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 220
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 44
Everyone is ready to give up on Appel -- Houston did, although I understand the Astros were reluctant to trade him -- despite the fact that he's still just 24 and ready to join a major league rotation. Appel will sit between 92-97 mph with his four-seamer and still throws a very hard upper-80s slider with huge tilt and big break. His four-seamer is very true, however, and hitters see it a long way because his delivery lacks deception; it's almost "too" clean, and he's so athletic that he repeats it extremely well. He has a two-seamer, but the Astros preferred for him to throw the four-seamer to try to get swings and misses up in the zone. His changeup has backed up a little since college and he has a tendency to overthrow it, but it was once an average or better pitch for him, and there's no physical reason it can't become so again.
Even as is, he's a fourth starter in the big leagues, but getting into a new player development system, one in which he can get back to his style of pitching, should be the best thing for him.
69. Billy McKinney, LF
Age: 21 (8/23/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
McKinney belongs to perhaps the least appealing class of prospect for a global ranking: the prospect whose value is almost entirely wrapped up in the hit tool. That McKinney is here is a testament to his track record to date and widespread belief that, if nothing else, the kid can hit.
McKinney has a beautiful, fluid, left-handed swing, very easy to repeat, geared toward line-drive contact but without a ton of leverage in it, so he projects as a high-OBP, high-doubles guy, but his ultimate power ceiling might be south of 20 homers as a result. McKinney played center in the lower minors, but that was a pipe dream, especially since he's a below-average runner. He should settle in as an average defender in left, which will be fine given his offensive profile but limits his potential to be a star unless he starts hitting .320, which isn't out of the question given his swing and eye. A more realistic ceiling has him posting OBPs in the upper .300s, rarely striking out, getting to 15-19 homers a year at his peak, with average defense in left, while receiving mountains of praise for being a "professional hitter."
70. Trent Clark, OF
Age: 19 (11/1/96) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205
Top level: Rookie | 2015: NE
Clark should have been a top-10 pick -- he nearly went fourth overall to the Rangers -- and the Brewers were smart to grab him when he slid to 15th overall, nabbing one of the most polished hitters in the draft class. Clark is a lot like Cubs prospect Billy McKinney, another first-round outfielder drafted out of Texas who was bat-first with a sweet, left-handed swing that should profile even with a seemingly inevitable move to left field. That describes Clark to a T; he has very strong hands and excellent hand-eye coordination, staying upright through contact with a little hip rotation for harder contact albeit limited power.
He's a 55 runner at best but has outstanding instincts on the bases, which led to the 25 stolen bases (almost one every other game) he had in pro ball last summer. Clark plays center now but is very likely to move to a corner as he fills out and is surpassed by fleeter defenders out there, with the Brewers already boasting several in their system.
71. Grant Holmes, RHP
Age: 19 (3/22/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 215
Top level: Class A | 2015: 79
Holmes was the Dodgers' first-round pick in 2014, a draft class that's already looking very promising just 18 months out, and had a solid debut pitching all year for the full-season Great Lakes club. Holmes sits 92-94 mph and can pitch up with the four-seamer more than most pitchers, getting swings and misses at the top of the strike zone because he can command the pitch up there and it has the illusion of late "hop" as it reaches the plate. His slider is plus and he showed an average changeup at times, although the pitch still needs work to become a more viable swing-and-miss option against left-handed hitters. Holmes is only 6 feet 1, so he doesn't get a lot of downhill plane, but he's strong for his size and maintained his stuff when he was allowed to go deeper into starts last year.
He projects as a league-average or slightly better starter, needing to work primarily on throwing his off-speed stuff for strikes and developing some confidence in that changeup.
72. Clint Frazier, OF
Age: 21 (9/6/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190
Top level: High-A | 2015: 92
Frazier struggled for a year and a half in full-season ball before finally putting up a performance commensurate with his draft position (fifth overall in 2013), hitting .325/.422/.539 in the second half of 2015 and cutting his strikeout rate by about a quarter. Frazier has unbelievable bat speed, in the same class as Javy Baez, and can generate tremendous raw power as a result, but he can glide over his front side and doesn't recognize breaking stuff as well as he should. That last issue has definitely improved since he has signed, and remains the biggest determinant of whether he'll be a middle-of-the-order bat or a seven-hole, all-or-nothing power guy. He's a below-average runner who'll likely end up in left field, although he has played mostly center in pro ball. If he gets to his power, it's not really going to matter where he plays because his production will profile even in left.
Double-A pitchers who can locate their off-speed stuff will provide him with a stern test, and if he passes, he could see the majors by mid-2017 and give Cleveland the power bat it currently lacks.
73. Raul Mondesi, SS
Age: 20 (7/27/95) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-1| Weight: 185
Top level: MLB | 2015: 38
Mondesi had a 2015 regular season to forget, missing five weeks because of a back injury and then suffering through an awful year at the plate for Double-A Northwest Arkansas ... then made his major league debut in the World Series and got a championship ring for his troubles, so I'm assuming 2015 will be all good in his memories.
As for his performance, Mondesi was overmatched by Double-A pitching and was victimized by the lack of an approach at the plate that haunted him last year in high-A as well. He was the only teenaged position player in the Texas League last year and didn't belong there due to poor plate discipline and a mandate to try to bunt for hits that limits the times he can work the count and develop an approach. His swing is fine, and as he gets stronger he should develop plenty of doubles power, while the other key tools -- glove, arm, running speed -- are already in place.
Right now, he looks as if he'll develop into a player a lot like the one above him on the depth chart, Alcides Escobar, a great defensive shortstop who contributes very little with the bat. But Mondesi is so young and still so athletically gifted that he has a chance to be much more.
74. Nick Williams, OF
Age: 22 (9/8/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Williams was a tools goof coming into 2015, a player with a lot of physical ability but very poor baseball acumen when it came to things like plate discipline, outfield routes or baserunning. He made an exceptional effort in the offseason and spring to improve himself as a ballplayer -- as opposed to just an athlete who played baseball -- and much of it came through in a breakout season.
Williams has quick hands and makes hard contact, with a swing that's almost too rounded, producing loft but a tendency to come up too much through contact. The increased patience at the plate, which led to him drawing 35 walks one season after having just 19, is a bit of a mirage; he was possessed by the Walk Demon in May, drawing 13 walks in a 19-game span, then regressed to his former, aggressive self, drawing just 13 more walks the rest of the season in more than 300 more plate appearances.
The improvements he made elsewhere in his game look like they'll stick. Once bumbling in center, he now takes good jumps and shorter routes. Previously a deer in headlights on the bases, he's now making better decisions and should develop into a net positive as a runner. Even at the plate, he's more balanced and at least getting into some better counts; when he misses, it's big, but when he squares one up, it's hit hard.
A low-OBP center fielder who can poke 20 homers is a big league regular, and if Williams can find a more patient approach that lasts more than three weeks, he could be a lot more.
75. Jorge Lopez, RHP
Age: 23 (2/10/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 190
Top level: MLB | 2015: NR
It has been a long, slow development process for Lopez, but ultimately a positive one; he looks like their best homegrown pitching prospect since Yovani Gallardo arrived in 2007. Lopez, a second-round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2011, was very slight when he was first chosen and had to add strength as well as work on the craft of pitching, but over four methodical years in the Brewers' system, he has done everything they could have asked of him.
Lopez will now sit 92-94 mph and can reach back for 95-plus on occasion, with a short, hard downer curveball that he can throw for strikes and a changeup that was plus for much of the season. He even had the best season of his pro career with his young son spending almost the entire year in the hospital due to an inherited autoimmune disorder.
There isn't much, if any, physical projection remaining, but he can still improve by refining his pitch selection and getting that curveball down in the zone more consistently for swings and misses. He could turn into a No. 2 starter with a very good No. 4 starter floor.
76. Marco Gonzales, LHP
Age: 23 (2/16/92) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 195
Top level: MLB | 2015: 64
Gonzales was expected to be a mainstay in the Cards' rotation by now, 2 1/2 years after being a first-round draft pick, but right now he's the odd man out after the team's signing of Mike Leake. However, there is enough of an injury history among their other starters that Gonzales should get his chance soon enough.
He's an oddity for these rankings because he'll pitch with a 45 fastball but has a 70 changeup and 55 breaking ball and the ability to throw everything for strikes. He does sink the ball but is not really a ground ball pitcher, and in his brief cups of coffee so far, he has been prone to too much hard contact from leaving stuff up in the zone. He's a superb athlete who can even swing the bat a little, and his delivery is very low-effort and easy to repeat, so I'm confident he'll be able to work to the lower third with his fastball so that he can get to the changeup and curveball, both of which have missed bats everywhere he has pitched, including the majors (MLB hitters have swung and missed at almost one in four changeups he has thrown).
He'd be a great longman for the Cards to start the year as they try to manage the workloads of their injury-prone starters, with the potential to step in and be a quality fourth or fifth starter right now when the need arises.
77. Yusniel Diaz, OF
Age: 19 (10/7/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185
Top level: Cuba | 2015: NE
Diaz defected from Cuba right after that country's 2014-15 winter league season ended, a campaign in which he hit .348/.447/.440 and walked more than he struck out despite being one of the league's youngest players at 18. Diaz signed with the Dodgers this winter for a $15.5 million bonus, which will cost the team that same amount in a penalty for going over their international signing cap, but the Dodgers think it was worth it to get such a high-upside athlete.
Now 19, Diaz is a four-tool player who lacks only power, a hitter with great hand-eye coordination that makes up for some of the disconnect his upper and lower halves show at the plate, and a plus runner who should be very good in center field. His body is projectable and loose, but his swing is somewhat flat and far more contact-oriented than geared for power; he uses the whole field and is more likely to be a gap-to-gap hitter who might get to 12-15 homers but is more likely to hit for average with a high OBP and lots of doubles. You could look at the body and expect him to grow into a 30-homer monster, but the swing isn't built for that right now. He's more of an A.J. Pollock type, or Lorenzo Cain with some more patience, still an All-Star upside that would easily justify the Dodgers' outlay.
78. Raimel Tapia, CF
Age: 22 (2/4/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 160
Top level: High-A | 2015: 68
Tapia's approach is unique, but his crazy good hand-eye coordination makes it work for him where it might not for just about anybody else. Tapia starts with an insanely wide base at the plate, and with two strikes he gets even lower, like a modern-day Oscar Gamble (without the plus hair). But that hand-eye coordination means that he can wait on pitches longer than most hitters, and it helps him cover more of the zone, even in those two-strike situations. He's a plus runner out of the box and while running and can use the bunt to get himself on base, although at this point I'd rather see him swing the bat more to get more comfortable in deep counts.
There's probably no more than 10-15 homers in here because of the wide base and emphasis on contact, although he'll hit a handful of line drives hard enough to get to double-digit homers. He's at least an average defender in center, probably a 55, but could be plus in a corner if the Rockies want someone who has more range manning their large center field.
Even if low OBPs make him just a league-average hitter, his ability to play center or be a 70 glove in a corner would make him a solid regular, and I think he could end up with some .300 batting averages because of his ability to make hard contact.
79. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Age: 20 (9/22/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 230
Top level: Class A | 2015: 96
Ortiz started 2015 on a dominant run of pitch-count starts (I can't think of a better name for these outings) in low-A when he hit the DL with "dead arm" and ended up missing the remainder of the summer, returning for five relief innings in the Arizona Fall League. It's a shame for a few reasons, not least of which is that Ortiz looked like he might be ready to move through the system somewhat quickly thanks to his feel for pitching and premium stuff.
Ortiz's fastball was mostly 91-95 mph as a starter before the injury and showed 93-96 in shorter outings in Phoenix, with good life on the pitch and very good command for his age. His changeup remains his best secondary pitch, consistently above-average and flashing plus, while his slider didn't make as much progress as hoped since he only threw the equivalent of about a third of a season.
Perhaps you've seen pictures of Ortiz from his brief stint in the Arizona Fall League, when he looked like a beached whale, and that conditioning issue is going to haunt him until he gets it under control -- even though being overweight has never seemed to affect his stuff or command. He must improve his conditioning to stay healthy (avoiding knee or back problems, at least) and just to show some commitment to his career, and then the priority becomes developing that third pitch, because the life on his fastball, the possible out pitch in the changeup and the present command and control make him look like a future big league starter.
80. Touki Toussaint, RHP
Age: 19 (6/20/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 185
Top level: Class A | 2015: NR
Toussaint is probably more famous now for how Atlanta got him than for anything he has done on the mound: He was the reward Arizona gave Atlanta for taking on Bronson Arroyo's contract while Arroyo was out for the year following Tommy John surgery, which amounted to the outright sale of a top prospect to save money. Toussaint is way too talented to be discarded like that; the 2014 first-rounder has been up to 98 mph and will sit 94-95 as a starter, flashing a plus curveball and an improved changeup. Arizona did have him throw the curveball less frequently so he would use the changuep more, and it showed in the pitch's development last year. He's very athletic with a loose, quick arm, but is still raw as a pitcher and needs to work on repeating his delivery (especially his arm swing) more consistently so he can work first on throwing strikes and second on commanding his fastball. (Stat-line scouts beware: One awful outing in Asheville, sort of the Coors Field of the Sally League, added nearly a run and a half to Toussaint's ERA with Rome.)
He has top-of-the-rotation potential but could be years away from reaching that goal. With only money on the line to acquire him, Atlanta should be very happy to wait for him to arrive.
81. Chance Sisco, C
Age: 20 (2/24/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 193
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Sisco was an infielder early on in high school, a kid with great hands, a good but not great arm, and probably not enough power to profile at his ideal position of third base, so he decided to move behind the plate -- a position he says he wanted to play anyway -- and showed well enough there before the draft to be taken in the second round. He has progressed defensively enough to where it seems likely he'll stick at catcher, so whereas the main question once was whether his glove would be good enough there, now it's whether he'll have the durability.
Sisco's receiving has gradually improved over two full years in the Orioles' system, and his glove is now ahead of his arm when grading out his present tools behind the plate. As a hitter, he's extremely contact-oriented, putting the ball in play to all fields -- the lefty hitter will wear out left fielders with singles and line drives -- but there's been no power to speak of in games, and his fairly flat swing isn't geared to put the ball in the air like that. At most positions, that's a problem, but AL catchers hit .232/.295/.383 in 2015, and Sisco's contact rate and solid batting eye lead me to think he's going to post OBPs over .350 pretty consistently, more than enough to forgive a lack of power.
My bigger concern is that Sisco has caught only 148 games in his two full seasons in pro ball due to a variety of minor injuries; I tried to see him catch in three separate series in 2015, since he played in two leagues close to my house, and finally had to fly to Phoenix in October to see him don the tools of ignorance. There are a lot of ifs around Sisco, but I can also see him having a very long, quiet career in the majors, like A.J. Pierzynski but without the drama, because Sisco can catch and can put the ball in play so often.
82. Jorge Alfaro, C
Age: 22 (6/11/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 225
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 35
What could have been a breakout year for Alfaro ended in a major ankle injury and a trade to Philadelphia, an organization that needs him to stay behind the plate and also has the task of teaching him how to take the occasional pitch. Alfaro has 80 power and an 80 arm behind the plate, but his offense and his defense have been held back by other things, the former by atrocious plate discipline, specifically the refusal to try to get deep into counts, and the latter by a real lack of focus and work on the non-throwing parts of catching. The Colombian-born backstop is entering his seventh year in pro ball, all as a catcher, and has drawn 101 walks in more than 2,000 plate appearances, and he has caught nearly 500 games without becoming even an average receiver.
There is a good argument to be made that it's easier to fix one problem than two, meaning the Phillies should just put Alfaro in right field and tell him to pretend he's Vlad Guerrero. But if he can just be an average receiver, maybe just a fringy framer, with that arm and that power, he could still be worth several wins per year. Power from behind the plate is so scarce that only seven catchers have reached 25 homers in any single year in the past five seasons, and we've seen only 28 20-homer seasons from catchers in that span, six of them from Brian McCann. So here's hoping the trade was the wake-up call Alfaro needed to start acting like a catcher and work on game-calling and pitch-framing and all the stuff that makes the job so hard, because he has All-Star appearances riding on his willingness to do just that.
83. Jack Flaherty, RHP
Age: 20 (10/15/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 205
Top level: Class A | 2015: NR
Flaherty was a two-way guy in high school and originally wanted to go pro as a third baseman, but his bat was way behind and scouts saw his future on the mound. He has a workhorse frame and a very easy, repeatable delivery for unusually good fastball command. He'll sit 90-94 mph and will flash three average pitches. The fastball could use some more plane, as he's 6-foot-4 but doesn't take full advantage of his height, allowing hitters to put the fastball in the air too often. The same problem makes his curveball flatten out, but if he gets on top of the ball more frequently, that should be an above-average or better pitch with depth and tight spin.
There's still projection in the body, and his present command and control are very promising for someone who has been a full-time pitcher for less than two years. He looks like a potential third starter in the making, with league-average performance over a large workload each year.
84. Archie Bradley, RHP
Age: 23 (8/10/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 Weight: 230
Top level: MLB | 2015: 21
It wasn't that long ago when Bradley was the best pitching prospect in the game, but 2015 was a year to forget for him. He was hit in the face by a comebacker and ended up on the disabled list later in the year with shoulder tendinitis, pitching well below expectations when he was able to take the mound.
Once possessing a 92-97-mph fastball as a starter, Bradley was only 90-94 for the D-backs last year, and had a hard time missing bats with the pitch because of the reduced velocity and lack of life. His curveball is still plus but -- with his arm a little slower -- didn't have the same bite it once had. He threw only 17 changeups in the big leagues last year, eight of them out of the strike zone, and that pitch is going to be essential for him to become a big league starter.
At this point, given Bradley's struggles with arm health and command, I'd like to see him get some time working out of the bullpen, where he can focus on regaining that big fastball and hammer curveball without worrying about going through an order three times. A year of health and success in a reduced role would set him up for a potential return to the rotation in 2017.
85. Daniel Robertson, IF
Age: 21 (3/22/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 83
Robertson's year was cut off by a broken hamate bone that cost him nearly two months and sapped all of his power even after he returned at the end of July, but once he's fully healthy, he should return to the player he was. Robertson is still playing mostly shortstop but projects better at second base given his limited lateral range, though he does have the hands for shortstop. He has a solid approach at the plate, with excellent hand-eye coordination, and projects to hit for average far more than power. He had to alter his approach after coming back, since he couldn't drive the ball as well after the fracture, but took better at-bats and showed more willingness to work the count in his favor, so there might have been a silver lining to the injury.
He looks like a solid every-day second baseman who hits for average and doubles power, and there might be more OBP skill there than I previously thought.
86. Amir Garrett, LHP
Age: 23 (5/3/92) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 210
Top level: High-A | 2015: NR
Garrett has given up basketball -- he played two seasons at St. John's -- and started to focus on baseball full time; 2015 marked his second full season of starts even though he first signed with the Reds in 2011.
Garrett is primarily a two-pitch pitcher now, with a live 92-96 mph fastball that comes from a tough angle to see it, a little below three-quarters, and an improving slider that has good tilt as long as he doesn't drop down and get on the side of it. His changeup is still a work in progress and he can lose arm speed when throwing it, but it's light years ahead of where it was when he first signed, so there's some reason to believe it'll eventually be an average pitch.
At worst, the Reds have a dominant high-leverage reliever who will probably work with two plus pitches in short stints, but he's such a good competitor and still relatively inexperienced that he should continue to develop as a starter like the Reds hope and show more of that mid-rotation upside.
87. James Kaprielian, RHP
Age: 21 (3/2/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 200
Top level: Low-A | 2015: NE
The Yankees wanted a bat with their first pick in 2015, but when all of the bats they were considering went off the board, they took the best remaining college starter in this UCLA right-hander, who developed from a reliever to a dominant starter over his three years with Bruins coach John Savage. Kaprielian will sit 93-95 mph as a starter with a wipeout slider, showing above-average control but still-developing (that is, it's not yet average) fastball command. He gets on top of the ball well to get good downhill plane on the fastball and to keep his changeup low in the zone. He's very aggressive, attacking hitters with strikes, and working to both sides of the plate. He has cleaned up his delivery since his freshman year, shortening the arm swing so he can repeat it more effectively, although there's still a little reliever risk here.
As the command continues to come, he should be a mid-rotation starter in time, and I don't think he'll have much trouble at all with low-minors hitters because of his present stuff and ability to throw strikes.
88. Albert Almora, OF
Age: 21 (4/16/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Almora's path to the big leagues hasn't been as easy as expected, given how polished he looked as a high school player. But he still has a considerable chance to be a major league regular thanks to his defense and some improvements in the quality of his contact.
Almora is a 70 defender in center with outstanding reads on balls off the bat, which makes up for his below-average running speed, and the defense will get him to the big leagues even if he doesn't hit. He boosted his stat line with a huge August at Double-A, but the real difference was that he started making better quality contact as the season went on, squaring up the ball more frequently and thus improving his BABIP and hitting for more power, mostly doubles power. He's never going to be a high walk guy and might end up a sixth- or seventh-place hitter because he won't have more than 10-12 homer power, but the huge defensive value and his high-contact, line-drive approach should make him at least a solid-average every-day player.
89. Gavin Cecchini, SS
Age: 22 (12/22/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 200
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
It was a bit of a mixed year for Cecchini in 2015. He finally had the offensive breakout the Mets had been waiting for, but ran into some throwing issues that put his defense in doubt for the first time. Cecchini has all the tools necessary to be an above-average defender at short, with excellent range, soft hands and a 60 arm. But he started to have trouble on routine throws, typically overthrowing, when he had a little time -- on bang-bang plays, when he had to just react, he was fine -- though the problem did lessen a bit later in the season. At the plate, he had an outstanding season. He got a bit stronger in 2014 and last offseason, and started getting better results on contact. It's a short swing with no load, coming directly at the ball, so the contact he makes is hard but isn't going to have any lift.
He's probably a 50 or 55 defender at short, assuming the throwing woes are behind him, and that kind of glove to go with a .280/.350/.380 line is at least a solid regular, probably an above-average one given the current state of offense at shortstop.
90. Jeff Hoffman, RHP
Age: 23 (1/8/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 185
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Hoffman returned from Tommy John surgery in just about a year and seemed to be on the fast track to the Toronto bullpen when the team changed course and used him as part of the trade for Troy Tulowitzki. Now in the Rockies' system, Hoffman is back to working on developing as a starter, with big upside but several key adjustments left to make.
He's 92-97 mph and can hold his velocity, but his delivery is so athletic and clean that hitters see the fastball well and make more contact than they should. His breaking ball is often plus, 78-83 mph, with good shape and very tight rotation, although when I saw him late in the year he had poor command of it. His changeup is firm at 86-88 and comes in like a BP fastball when he leaves it up; working down in the zone with everything he has might be the biggest single adjustment he can make, and he's athletic enough to be able to get out over his front side more effectively. He's an excellent fielder and repeats his delivery well. Adding deception isn't easy, but if he can finish more out front, it'll help all three pitches play up and give him No. 3 starter potential.
91. Dylan Cease, RHP
Age: 20 (12/28/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Top level: Rookie | 2015: NR
Cease was a potential top-10 pick in 2014 after his fastball hit 99 mph and he showed a plus curveball that spring, but he suffered a partial tear of his elbow ligament that didn't respond to treatment, requiring Tommy John surgery after he signed an overslot deal as a sixth-round pick of the Cubs that June. Cease returned this summer and was back up to 99, easier than ever with a cleaner delivery. He was just a year removed from the surgery, so he was throwing mostly fastballs and didn't fire off the curveball like he did before he got hurt, although scouts who saw it still had it as plus in the future. He has a lightning-quick arm and is a very athletic kid, so given more time between him and the knife, he should be able to throw more strikes and regain command of both pitches, although he'll have to throw his changeup more to develop it as a viable third pitch.
There's legit No. 2 starter upside here, and I think you can dream of more given how blank the slate is, as long as he stays on the mound for regular workloads going forward.
92. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF
Age: 20 (7/13/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 180
Top level: High-A | 2015: NR
Bellinger has to be on the short list of the most unexpected performances in the minors last year (along with Willson Contreras). He was a great defensive first baseman in high school with some feel to hit but significant questions about his power, so all he did was go to the Cal League at age 19 and hit 30 homers. He did change his approach, selling out some contact for that power, but it worked, and he still made enough contact and drew enough walks to post a .334 OBP despite being the second-youngest regular in the league behind Franklin Barreto.
Bellinger is a 70 defender at first and actually played a competent center field when he moved there last summer to try to establish some other positional value for him, although most scouts said they'd leave him at first because he can do so much there. The question going forward is what kind of regular he'll be in the majors: a big power guy with a bit of a sellout swing or more of a contact hitter who hits 10-15 homers. Either way, he looks like an every-day player and a good get in the fourth round (of the 2013 draft).
93. Bobby Bradley, 1B
Age: 19 (5/29/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 225
Top level: High-A | 2015: NR
Bradley's outlier performance from his 2014 complex-league debut didn't quite last -- note to fans of Austin Riley's stat line -- but he did show enough of a hit tool to complement his plus raw power last year that he established himself as a potential every-day first baseman. Bradley looks like he'll hit 20-25 homers pretty comfortably, but the question of what kind of hitter for average he'll be is still unanswered. I'm fairly optimistic, because he has a very good, clean swing and pretty quick hands to get the bat head to the zone in time. His pitch recognition isn't great, as you might expect from a Mississippi high school product who went straight to the Midwest League from rookie ball, but he showed progress late in the season, earning a final-week promotion to high-A for the playoff run. He's an average runner and capable on defense, potentially solid-average at first but not much better.
I think he gets to .260 or so with a bunch of walks and strikeouts and 20 bombs a year, making him a very solid regular, and he's still young enough now to make that forecast look too light.
94. Kyle Zimmer, RHP
Age: 24 (9/13/91) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 215
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 25
Zimmer would be a top-10 prospect as a starter if he had any history of staying healthy in that role in pro ball, but a series of arm woes, culminating in arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder after the 2014 season, have limited him to 216 innings across three and a half years since he signed. The good news is that he made it through 2015 without any setbacks, pitching for three straight months after his rehab ended and even stretching out to make a couple of longer starts by season's end, facing 21 and 24 batters in his two longest outings.
Zimmer works as a starter with three legitimately plus pitches in the fastball, curveball and changeup, with only his slider lagging behind, and despite what the arm problems might imply, his delivery is pretty clean and he repeats it well. He's an excellent athlete, a former position player who fields well and has excellent body control.
If he can start, he has No. 1-starter stuff, but he's probably going to be limited again in 2016 to a short-start guy or in a swing role, and could end up a dominant reliever depending on the big club's needs.
95. Alex Jackson, OF
Age: 20 (12/25/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 215
Top level: Class A | 2015: 59
Jackson was supposed to be a very advanced bat with power and feel to hit when Seattle made him the sixth overall pick in 2014, but a rough transition to the outfield at first and trouble making contact when he got to the Midwest League have caused some revising of the scouting reports. He did perform, somewhat, after a demotion in May from the full-season Midwest League to the short-season Northwest League -- the team said it was due to a sore shoulder -- but he was overmatched by low-A pitching, and still punched out in more than 30 percent of his at-bats in Everett. His swing is clean with good rotation for power, but he can lead too much with his elbow, locking his front side and becoming too pull-oriented, producing a lot of ground balls to the shortstop instead of big flies.
He has become an average or better right fielder with a plus arm, and there's clearly 25-30 homer power in there, but he has to be project No. 1 for the new player development staff in Seattle. If they can't fix his physical approach, he has huge bust potential.
96. Max Fried, LHP
Age: 22 (1/18/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 170
Top level: Class A | 2015: 100
Fried is a bit of a forgotten man, having missed a year and a half for Tommy John surgery rehab and recovery, and in the interim he was traded to Atlanta in the Justin Upton swap (January 2015). But Fried is fully healthy now, in great shape and ready to start the season, giving Atlanta another potential mid-rotation starter in its deep well of pitching prospects.
When healthy, Fried was up to 96 mph, working mostly 91-94, with a plus curveball and average changeup. But he lacked average command and control, giving the Padres some doubts about his maturity. Those doubts have been erased, however, as Atlanta couldn't be happier with his effort to come back from the surgery, and given his ridiculous athleticism, he should be able to smooth out and repeat his delivery to the point where he can at least throw all his pitches for strikes.
There's still No. 2 starter upside here if his stuff has fully returned and he can develop the command that his delivery and athletic ability should permit.
97. Tyler Kolek, RHP
Age: 20 (12/15/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 260
Top level: Class A | 2015: 34
When the Tyler Kolek bandwagon crashed this year, there were dozens of casualties -- and his year was indeed pretty abysmal. But he was also 19 and probably not ready for full-season ball, a huge but raw pitcher who came out of high school with no changeup and trouble throwing his breaking ball to his glove side.
Kolek has big velocity and holds it -- 98 mph in the sixth inning of one start -- and throws a heavy ball, making it tough for hitters to elevate it. He was very fastball-centric in 2015 as he tried to work on fastball command, with mixed results, while also switching from a slurvy curveball to a true slider. I think early expectations that he might have No. 2 starter upside were too ambitious, as he's still learning how to be a pitcher rather than a thrower and will probably never have that kind of command, but he also has the makings of two plus pitches and the size and build for 200 innings.
There's some reliever risk here if he doesn't develop any sort of third pitch, or if he can't get to average control. But he's barely 20 years old, still has the great arm, and now gets to work with new Marlins pitching guru Jim Benedict on streamlining his delivery.
98. Nick Gordon, SS
Age: 20 (10/24/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 160
Top level: Class A | 2015: 43
Gordon struggled badly in the first half of his first full pro season as one of the youngest regulars in the Midwest League as he adjusted not only to pro pitching but to playing in the cold weather for the first time. Gordon did adjust over the course of the season, hitting .302/.347/.416 in the second half with an improved contact rate. He's still not as disciplined as he should be for someone who profiles more as a contact/on-base guy than a power bat (he hit the ball on the ground more than two-thirds of the time he put it in play). He showed mostly average run times, occasionally above but just as often below when grounding out. And defensively, he has good hands and a plus arm, meaning he's very likely to remain at shortstop and become an above-average defender there.
A year ago, he seemed like such a polished bat that he had some All-Star potential, but now it looks more as if he'll be a solid-average to slightly above-average regular, with good probability of becoming a big leaguer, but lacking that star upside.
99. Brady Aiken, LHP
Age: 19 (8/16/96) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 205
Top level: High school | 2015: NE
Aiken was the first overall pick in the 2014 draft, but Houston found something they didn't like in his elbow during his post-draft physical -- yet another argument for Major League Baseball to hold a pre-draft combine where all this medical stuff is handled -- leading to an impasse that sent him back to school and into the 2015 draft. Unfortunately, Aiken's elbow gave out, leading to Tommy John surgery last March. That prevented anyone from seeing him pitch in 2015, but Cleveland was comfortable enough with his medicals to gamble on his huge upside, as a fully healthy Aiken would be among the top 25 prospects in baseball.
Prior to the injury, Aiken would show an easy 92-95 mph fastball with a plus curveball, feel for a changeup and the occasional "just because I can" cutter, although he should be a three-pitch guy going forward. He's very athletic, and his delivery was fluid and simple to repeat. His rehab from surgery has gone very well, and he could be pitching to live hitters as early as minor league spring training, which would probably mean he'd pitch in extended spring training games and head to a short-season league in June.
It was a great gamble by Cleveland, part of a strong draft in which they bet on some upside high school arms in later rounds. The Indians take the chance on a kid with No. 1 starter potential if the elbow problems stay behind him.
100. Hunter Harvey, RHP
Age: 21 (12/9/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 175
Top level: Class A | 2015: 16
Harvey missed all of 2015, joining Dylan Bundy in Baltimore's parade of injured prospects (Kevin Gausman managed to avoid the infirmary but was all screwed up after the O's staff decided to push him to the wrong side of the rubber). Harvey fractured his fibula in a spring training game, then was shut down twice with forearm and elbow discomfort, but has not had surgery yet and there's still hope he'll be able to pitch again this year.
When healthy, Harvey can be electric, with a fastball up to 97 mph as a starter and a wipeout curveball that could probably miss major league bats right now if he could consistently throw it for strikes. He started to have delivery problems in 2014 while creeping to the extreme third-base side of the rubber -- notice a trend here? -- coming back across his body, which was probably related to the flexor tendon strain he suffered late that summer. He still needs to develop his changeup and work on fastball command, but none of that can happen if he's not on the mound. He's almost here as a placeholder, because he has top-of-the-rotation potential if his arm hasn't gone all Bundy on us.