Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2016 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
This is my ninth such ranking for Insider, and this time around there's a ton of turnover on the list thanks to the big year for rookies in 2015. In fact, my No. 1 and No. 3 prospects from last year won the Rookie of the Year awards in the NL and AL, respectively, and the Nos. 6 and 15 prospects were the runners-up in the AL. Eleven of my top 20 prospects last year graduated to the majors.
As usual, the list is heavy on position players up the middle, with a fifth of the top 100 currently playing shortstop. And there's a slew of center fielders on the list, but it's very light on catchers and third basemen. There also is a bit of a renaissance for left-handed starters right now, with a dozen on the list this year. The back of the list seems, just at a glance, to be the youngest I've had in years, thanks in part to all the graduations from the high minors in the past year.
The guidelines
The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.
Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.
I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purpose of this exercise. I also exclude Cuban players who are considered professional free agents by Major League Baseball by virtue of their experience in Cuba's Serie Nacional de Béisbol. As such, this list excludes Byung-Ho Park and Kenta Maeda, but it will consider Cuban players whom MLB treats as amateurs, like Yusniel Diaz (who is in the rankings) and Yadier Alvarez.
When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplemented with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives, as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects that are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and it gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.
I use the 20 to 80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power, for instance. David Ortiz has 20 speed. Andrelton Simmons is an 80 defender with an 80 arm. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90 to 92 mph, with 1 to 2 mph off that for a lefty.
I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the Top 100 in 2015. An ineligible player (labeled as "NE" for not eligible in the 2015 rank area) was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an unranked player (labeled "NR" for not ranked) was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers lists ("SL") -- I listed a player or two per team in my 2015 team-by-team prospect rankings -- and identified those on my list of 10 players who just missed the cut ("JM").
1. Corey Seager, SS/3B
Age: 21 (4/27/94) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 215
Top level: MLB | 2015: 5
Seager is the game's best prospect, a superlative hitter who projects to do everything at the plate and might even be able to do it at shortstop for a year or two before becoming a top-flight defender at third base.
Seager, the younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle, has electric hands at the plate and does everything very easily -- his swing, hip rotation and power look effortless -- but it's his approach that makes him the best prospect in baseball. Seager's pitch recognition is advanced way beyond his years, and you'll see him make adjustments within at-bats that even veterans don't make. He's better than most players his age at adjusting to a pitch he didn't expect and does very well covering the outer half without creating a hole on the inner third. He's tall and his swing plane can be high, so he's a little vulnerable to the pitch down at the knees. But for someone his age, that's a minor weakness to have as your primary issue at the plate.
While Seager reached the majors as a shortstop, he's already one of the biggest players in major league history to man that position and is likely to outgrow it if he hasn't already done so. (Seager is listed at 215 pounds; the only heavier shortstops in MLB history have been Hanley Ramirez, late-in-his-career Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe and Alex Rodriguez.) Seager has the hands for short but not the speed or agility, while his arm would play anywhere on the diamond, making a move to third base -- where his defense would likely be plus or better, perhaps saving as many as 10 runs per year -- the most probable long-term outcome. He has MVP upside even if he moves to third, and would be even more valuable if he beats my expectations and hangs around at short.
Older brother Kyle, still just 28, already has had four All-Star-caliber seasons for Seattle, but he's going to end up second fiddle to his big little brother.
2. Byron Buxton, CF
Age: 22 (12/18/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190
Top level: MLB | 2015: 2
Buxton just missed graduating from this list (by two at-bats), which means he's also still rookie of the year-eligible for 2016, as well as the early favorite for the honor. His first go-round in the majors didn't quite go according to plan, but the double-plus tools that have consistently made him one of the game's top prospects since he was the second overall pick in 2012 are all still there.
Buxton is an 80 runner with an 80 arm and 70 range (at least) in center, so his floor is pretty high even if he's among the weakest hitters in the majors. All questions in his game revolve around his bat and his ability to stay on the field. He was probably in the majors too soon in 2015, as he had been hitting well in Double-A after missing most of 2014 due to injuries to both wrists and a concussion caused by an outfield collision. He sprained his thumb after two weeks of looking overmatched by major league pitching, then mashed in Triple-A for two weeks before returning to the majors and struggling, even against September opponents, while playing irregularly as the Twins fought for the last wild-card spot.
Buxton's swing is pretty, with great hip rotation and extension through contact for power, but it can get long, with a tendency to try to "trap" the ball on his bat. His pitch-type recognition was not ready for the majors last year, as pitchers could beat him with spin, changing speeds and by leading him out of the strike zone.
Buxton has the physical gifts to be a star even if he hits .240, as that would probably come with 50 steals, 10-12 homers and big defensive contributions. However, it's no longer quite the lock it appeared to be that he makes enough contact to get to that threshold. Entering his age-22 season, Buxton is on the clock to make some significant adjustments, and he'll probably be asked to do so in Minnesota to start the year.
3. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Age: 21 (7/14/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 255
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 8
If you wanted to build the perfect pitching prospect, he'd look a lot like Giolito, who continued his march through the minors in 2015 despite some tight restrictions on his workload; he was held to 117 innings. (Giolito and fellow Nationals prospect Reynaldo Lopez began 2015 in extended spring training to try to shift those workloads toward the end of the season, and they might have been able to supplement the major league bullpen had Washington still been contenders once the minor league season ended.) Giolito isn't quite ready to join a major league rotation yet, but that's about the end of the negatives in his scouting report.
Giolito's fastball will sit 94-98 mph with a power curveball that has two-plane break and depth that is unhittable as long as he finishes it out front. He worked heavily on his changeup all season, especially before his promotion to Double-A, dominating left-handed hitters at both levels, while he was able to reintroduce his two-seamer once he got to Harrisburg, giving him four legitimate major league pitches. He's also a superb athlete who hasn't had any arm issues at all since he returned from 2012 Tommy John surgery just short of 12 months from the date of the operation, and his delivery is consistent and easy, with great use of his legs to create the power in his fastballs and curveball.
The Nationals have one ace right now in Max Scherzer, but within a few years, they'll have a second one joining him.
4. J.P. Crawford, SS
Age: 21 (1/11/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 7
Crawford missed the beginning of the 2015 season due to an oblique injury, but he destroyed the Florida State League for a few weeks despite the layoff and ended up spending the rest of the year in Double-A at age 20. At Reading, he showed an incredibly mature approach at the plate and the easy, slick defense that gives him such a high floor as a prospect. Crawford's actions at short can border on the comical because of how simple he makes challenging plays, especially anything that has him moving to his left or coming across the bag for a double play. His hands are plus and he has plenty of arm to make any throw from short.
At the plate, his approach has always been ahead of any other aspect of his game. It's not just that he's patient, it's that he's very comfortable running deep counts -- even falling behind if he doesn't get his pitch right away -- and showing a great two-strike approach that has produced consistently strong contact rates. As he gets stronger, the quality of that contact should improve, with maybe 12-15 homer power at his peak given his current swing path, which is geared toward line drives with only moderate loft in his finish. He's also a plus runner at full tilt but unfortunately doesn't always bring that to the field, often trotting out ground balls where more effort is demanded.
A plus defender at short with high OBPs, speed and 35-40 doubles a year is an All-Star in our current offensive environment, and Crawford seems like he'll be ready to reach the majors and start providing that glovework by the end of this year.
5. Julio Urias, LHP
Age: 19 (8/12/96) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 9
It seems like it will be hard for Urias to ever live up to the hype he received in 2013, when, at age 16, he pitched extremely well in the Midwest League despite being undersized and pudgy and dealing with ptosis (a drooping eyelid) over his left eye. Now 19, Urias has continued to succeed through Double-A, although he has yet to throw 100 innings in any full season and was awful in two late-season starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City. He remains the game's top left-handed pitching prospect, with a top-of-a-rotation ceiling, but I don't see how he'd be able to help a major league club to start 2016.
Urias is no longer undersized or pudgy, coming in last spring at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, and given his age, he's possibly still growing. He's comfortably 91-95 mph with his fastball, with minimal effort, and will show both a plus curveball and plus changeup, although neither secondary pitch is consistent yet. He stays online to the plate and in time, he should have better fastball command to go with his above-average control, thanks again to that easy, repeatable delivery.
Three plus pitches and a great delivery point to potential ace upside, and the main challenge for Urias to get there will be to stay healthy as the team starts to ramp up his workload now that he'll be the age of a typical first-year pro who signed out of high school.
6. Tyler Glasnow, RHP
Age: 22 (8/23/93) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-8 | Weight: 225
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 13
The 6-foot-8 Glasnow has been on Bucs fans' radars for almost three years now, dominating the lower minors and reaching Triple-A in the second half of 2015, with all signs pointing toward him spending much or all of this upcoming season in the Pirates' rotation, health permitting. He was close to ready by the end of last year, although he could still stand to improve his changeup, and major league hitters will force him to work more on his fastball command.
Glasnow blossomed in pro ball, going from the upper 80s in high school to touching mid-90s in 2013 in low-A, and around an ankle injury that cost him a month of last year, he showed two plus-plus pitches again for Double-A Altoona: a 91-97 mph fastball that really comes downhill at hitters and a yellow hammer of a curveball, 78-80 mph with tight spin and huge depth. Glasnow comes from a high three-quarters arm slot to get that plane on the fastball and extends well over his front side to finish, so there's no mechanical reason he couldn't eventually throw an average changeup. His changeup now is a batting practice fastball, 87-89 mph without feel, and he's better off attacking minor league lefties with the breaking ball they can see but can't hit.
He's built like a workhorse, has the two pitches of an ace and keeps making small yet tangible refinements to his game. His first year or so in the bigs could be erratic -- lot of walks, perhaps wider platoon splits than he had in the minors -- but his long-term upside is rare.
7. Rafael Devers, 3B
Age: 19 (10/24/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195
Top level: Class A | 2015: 55
Devers didn't come into 2015 with the hype of eventual teammate Yoan Moncada -- both played for a loaded Class A Greenville Drive infield that also featured Javier Guerra, now in the Padres organization -- but Devers established himself as Boston's top prospect with an impressive all-around performance that showed he has the acumen to match his prodigious tools. He has huge power, with electric hands and a rotational, balanced swing that allows him to drive off his back leg. For such a big guy, he has remarkable plate coverage, rarely striking out -- he was vulnerable just to hard stuff up and in when I saw him -- so while his walk rates appear low, he was far from overmatched for an 18-year-old in full-season ball, with only 42 games of stateside experience coming into the season.
The knock on Devers has been his defense at third, but I see no reason he can't stay at the position and even play it well. Devers is large for the hot corner, but that's the only cause for any doubt; he has great hands, a 70-grade arm and is quite agile for a big man. The bat would profile at first base, of course, with the power and contact upside there, but the potential for above-average defense at third on top of 30-35 homers and a high batting average (even if it's without a high OBP) is what makes him a top-10 prospect.
8. Alex Reyes, RHP
Age: 21 (8/29/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 185
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 77
Reyes can rival Lucas Giolito and Tyler Glasnow for pure stuff, including a big fastball that has hit 100 mph and is regularly 94-98 and good feel for a plus upper-80s changeup, showing very consistent arm speed. His curveball isn't the plus pitch the other two are, but he can throw it for strikes and does get some two-plane break to it. He also looks like a top-of-the-rotation starter, listed at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds but is clearly stronger than that now. Reyes punched out a hilarious 151 batters in 101 1/3 innings (414 total batters faced) when he pitched in 2015.
Reyes had two major setbacks during the season, however. First was the shoulder soreness that cost him about a month during the season, a concern for any pitcher but particularly one who strides a little short and finishes his delivery abruptly rather than getting all the way over his front side. Second was the 50-game suspension for testing positive for marijuana, which isn't a concern for his baseball ability, but it cost him innings he needs to work on building durability and developing command. (If the Cardinals add him to the 40-man roster now, the suspension itself will be suspended, as players on that roster are not subject to discipline for marijuana.)
He should be a lock for the Cardinals' 2017 rotation, given the dent the suspension and a likely workload cap will have on his potential output for this upcoming season, but there is at least a little reason to be concerned that he doesn't have 200-220 inning seasons in his long-term future.
9. Nomar Mazara, RF
Age: 20 (4/26/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 195
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 31
The Rangers made an aggressive and risky move with Mazara, jumping one of their top prospects past the hitter-friendly California League up to Double-A, where at age 20 he would end up the second-youngest regular in the Texas League. The move worked better than anyone could have realistically expected and made clear that the adjustments Mazara made at the plate in 2014 weren't just a function of repeating the Sally League, establishing him as one of the top hitting prospects in the minors.
Mazara received a then-record $5 million bonus as a Dominican amateur in 2011, back when he was a skinny kid who had bat speed and a projectable frame. He showed an advanced approach for his age right away in the Arizona Rookie League in 2012, and it has continued to improve. Between his plan at the plate, the bat speed and excellent hand-eye coordination, he has become a versatile hitter who'll work the count, use the whole field and who's starting to come into his power as well. He can still be too aggressive early in the count and often pulls hard ground balls to the right side on pitches he should take the other way or let pass, but he's rarely fooled, and he hits the ball hard enough that even some poor swing decisions are going to work out for him.
I wrote last year that I thought his peak would be 25 homers with a .280/.360/.520 sort of line when he's filled out, and if anything, I feel better about his upside after his 2015 performance.
10. Orlando Arcia, SS
Age: 21 (8/4/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0| Weight: 165
Top level: High-A | 2015: 54
Arcia followed up his stellar 2014 season with an even more impressive campaign in 2015, leading the Southern League in doubles as a 20-year-old, the third-youngest regular in the league. He's an above-average defender at shortstop who handles the infield like a point guard, running the defense from his position as much as the sport allows such a thing, with outstanding instincts and game awareness that help his 60 range play up to even higher. At the plate, he's still hit first, ask questions later, but has strong hand-eye coordination and showed last year that he had more raw power than his Brevard County-deflated line from 2014 indicated. (I'd be pretty deflated if I had to spend 100 days a year in Brevard County, too.) He's an above-average runner with great hands, and his arm is good enough for everything except possibly the throw from the hole, and even that is looking more and more like a spurious reason to run a good fielder off short.
If everything breaks right, Arcia could be like Omar Vizquel with a little more pop, and the same kind of reputation for making the fielders around him better too.
11. Brendan Rodgers, SS
Age: 19 (8/9/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180
Top level: Rookie | 2015: NE
I had Rodgers as the No. 1 player in the 2015 draft class, so for Colorado to get him with the third pick looks like one of the best values of the first round -- even more so after Rodgers had a strong debut in the Pioneer League, where he was sent right after signing because Colorado is the only club without a complex-league team.
Rodgers is a true shortstop with soft hands, advanced footwork and a 65 arm; he's a below-average runner, which for some teams means he can't play short, but as long as he makes all the plays -- and he does -- I don't see the problem. He has a simple right-handed swing that produces hard contact, and he uses the whole field well, even hitting all three of his homers for Grand Junction the opposite way.
Before the draft, I said he might be Tulowitzki lite, a hitter for a high batting average with average power and plus defense at short, a potential ceiling that is still very much a possibility.
12. Joey Gallo, 3B
Age: 22 (11/19/93) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 230
Top level: MLB | 2015: 11
Gallo just missed graduating from this list, which is fine because it gives us another year to marvel over his raw power and multitudinous strikeouts. His struggles in the majors should not have surprised anyone, least of all the Rangers, given his 40 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A, but it also showed how far Gallo still has to go to allow that 40-homer potential to come through in the big leagues.
Gallo saw 504 pitches in the majors in 2015 and swung and missed at 114 of them (22.6 percent), per baseballsavant.com's pitch f/x data. Although he earned a quick reputation as someone who'd chase a slider, the truth is that Gallo swung and missed at all pitch types, and had more whiffs in the strike zone than he did on pitches low and away (where a slider from a left-handed pitcher would go ... and where Gallo would probably chase it until either he or it was dead). The sliders out of the zone will always give him some trouble, but learning to recognize those pitches sooner will help him keep that problem at a manageable level. Bear in mind that Gallo has already made huge adjustments to his approach since signing; without doing so, he would have never even sniffed the majors at age 21. The core problem has always been stuff in the zone, and while he has improved quite a bit there since he was drafted in 2012, we saw in 2015 that he hasn't come far enough.
Gallo could probably handle third base at the major league level given enough time with the big league coaches, but he has an 80 arm that would also look really pretty in right field (or on the mound ... c'mon, Banny, make this happen for us!).
His position is an academic question, however. If he makes enough contact to get to that power, he's going to hit 40 homers and probably draw 70-80 walks as well between his own eye and pitchers trying to avoid throwing something directly into the path of the Human Particle Collider, and that's a star at just about any position. If he makes that much contact, nothing else matters, and if he doesn't make enough contact, then nothing else matters.
13. Dansby Swanson, SS
Age: 22 (2/11/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 175
Top level: Low-A | 2015: NE
Swanson was the first pick in the 2015 Rule 4 draft, then became the first No. 1 pick to be traded before his signature could even dry on the contract, thanks to a recent MLB rule change (that allowed such trades) and a Diamondbacks GM with less patience than the average three-year-old. I love Shelby Miller, but trading the first six years of Dansby Swanson's entire career for three years of Miller could come back to bite the Diamondbacks, and quickly.
Swanson is a well-rounded prospect, a true shortstop who can hit, run, has a little pop and should be above-average on defense. He also has a great track record of performing against good competition, including two deep runs at the College World Series with his Vanderbilt teammates. He has solid plate discipline, not outstanding, and you'd like to see a little more contact from a guy who's probably a 12-15 homer hitter at his peak and does more with his legs and OBP than with power. He has the bat speed to be a higher-contact guy, with the ability to catch up to plus velocity. I do think he has .290-.300 average upside with 20-25 steals a year, although I'd like to see Atlanta introduce a minor stride or even a toe-tap to try to get his weight transfer started. At shortstop, he's quick and agile enough to stay at the position, although his arm may be the one tool that holds him back.
At worst, you've got a high-average, plus-running second baseman; at best, you've got all that in a guy who stays at short and maybe surprises you with some power. Either way, six years of that, with Year 1 probably being 2017, is not worth giving up for three years of Miller.
14. Blake Snell, LHP
Age: 23 (12/4/92) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4| Weight: 180
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: SL
Snell was my sleeper for the Rays' organization coming into 2015, based on the gradual improvement of his command over the previous season after some quantum leaps in the caliber of his stuff. Snell walked 73 men in 99 innings in 2013, as he was unable to control his newfound arm strength, but walked just 53 in 134 innings across three levels in 2015. He recorded a 31 percent strikeout rate and a 1.41 composite ERA across all three levels, maintaining his success right up through Triple-A. He might have reached the majors had the Rays been contending, but with his innings mounting and the team sliding out of the race, there wasn't a huge argument for him to come up, especially since he had some issues with keeping right-handed hitters off base last year.
Snell will work with three above-average pitches: a 92-94-mph fastball that will touch 96, a very hard-tumbling changeup in the low 80s, and a big, mostly vertical breaking ball that looks as if it comes out of the sky thanks to his high three-quarters slot and ability to stay on top of the ball. His arm is quick and loose, and learning to be disciplined with that arm swing has been the biggest challenge for him. Even without any significant improvement in command or feel for pitching, he's probably a No. 3 starter in the long run, but given the improvements he has made to date, he has a chance to end up as one of the top 10 left-handed starters in MLB.
15. Gleyber Torres, SS
Age: 19 (12/13/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Top level: High-A | 2015: NR
The Cubs' system was plundered by promotions this past season, with Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber all making their debuts in Chicago and playing well, so their best prospect now is a 19-year-old whose name is likely unfamiliar to most fans of other teams. Torres is still a few years away from the majors and may find himself blocked by Russell when he's ready, but what he did as the Midwest League's second-youngest regular in 2015 marks him as a potential superstar in his own right.
Torres looked much older than 18 in terms of his plate skills during the 2015 season; he stayed behind the ball really well, with great hand-eye coordination and the ability to shoot a ball to the outfield the way Derek Jeter would do with two strikes. It's a very easy swing, and Torres keeps his head steady throughout in a way many major league hitters couldn't emulate. He's very smooth at shortstop already, with plus hands and a plus arm, showing me in Myrtle Beach's playoff series against Wilmington that he could come across the bag well on a difficult double play. He needs to continue to get stronger, as well as work on some of his reads in the field and on the bases, where his physical tools have exceeded his acumen. He has a good chance to jump into the top 5 by next year.
16. Austin Meadows, OF
Age: 20 (5/3/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 200
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 32
Meadows was the Pirates' first of two first-round picks in 2013, going ninth overall, but he missed most of 2014 with a torn hamstring and entered 2015 with just less than 400 plate appearances as a pro. The Bucs took a chance by sending him to high-A despite his youth and inexperience, but he raked all year for Bradenton, showing excellent plate discipline and feel for the barrel, even earning a late-season stint at Double-A Altoona. But in the long term, he's going to have to show he can trade some of his weak contact for harder-hit balls that might leave the yard.
Meadows needs to hit for power to be a regular, but if he does hit for the power that he's physically capable of producing, he'll be a star. His approach at the plate is very advanced, with good feel for the strike zone and the discipline to lay off garbage pitches like an older player. Meadows can set up a little too high and come down at the ball, producing too many ground balls; he has changed hand slots a few times to try to unlock that power and avoid cutting up through the ball, making contact with the top half and putting it on the ground.
Defensively, he has played primarily center field so far but is going to end up in a corner spot, most likely right field, where he should be a 55 or 60 defender. In that spot, he's going to have to get to that 15-20 homer range to profile there; fortunately he has the size and strength to get there if he can get his hands to the right set position.
17. Yoan Moncada, 2B
Age: 20 (5/27/95) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205
Top level: Class A | 2015: NE
Moncada's debut season for the Red Sox probably didn't match the hype or high expectations fans had for him, but much of that probably derived from the huge amount of money the team paid ($31.5 million, plus a 100 percent penalty to MLB for exceeding their international budget cap) to sign him -- itself a reflection of a broken system more than a straight valuation of his talent. Moncada is still a premium prospect. He's no longer a shortstop and maybe without the huge power bat we expected, but a likely above-average regular with a couple of paths to becoming an All-Star.
Moncada played about a half-season for Greenville, debuting in late May, but he didn't start to hit for much contact or average until about 30-40 games into the season; from July 1 (an arbitrary start point) on, he hit .305/.414/.503 with a 20 percent K rate, down from the nearly 28 percent rate he had before that. He has plus bat speed, but in mid-June he still seemed to struggle to recognize pitch types, which improved in the second half of his season. He's also a true switch-hitter, with a slightly better swing from the left side, although he did hit for more average and power right-handed, where his swing is a bit shorter and quicker to the ball. He's a fringe runner out of the box but is better around the bases, and showed good range at second base in both directions, although he fields with his body more upright than just about any major league second baseman I can think of.
The best projection for Moncada right now is as a second baseman who hits for a high average with 15-18 homers a year, since neither of his swings right now is that geared to drive the ball. Given his inexperience -- he played only about 100 games in Cuba before defecting -- he still needs more time and room to grow than your typical 20-year-old.
18. Andrew Benintendi, CF
Age: 21 (7/6/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 170
Top level: Class A | 2015: NE
Benintendi was not on the national radar going into the spring of 2015 as a draft-eligible sophomore at the University of Arkansas who hit one home run in a 2014 season in which he played through some injuries. He started hitting right away, though, and ended the spring with a .376/.488/.717 line, winning the Golden Spikes Trophy and the SEC Player of the Year award. A 31st-rounder out of high school, Benintendi jumped to the eighth pick in the country two years later -- and even that might have been a bit late.
Benintendi has an unusual profile: He's a short, athletic power-hitting center fielder with the potential for a Mike Cameron stat line from a Reed Johnson body. He's a plus runner with above-average to plus power, and the early consensus on him in pro ball is that he will stay in center field, or at least won't have to move, although Boston has a surfeit of legitimate plus defenders in center who could push a couple of qualified gloves to the corners. He's probably a 55 defender in center when it's all said and done, an above-average runner with good instincts, a potential 20-homer, 20-steal guy at a position where, other than Mike Trout, that kind of player just doesn't exist much anymore.
Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber went from college to the majors in 12 to 13 months, and given Benintendi's skill set and the approach he showed in his 54 games in pro ball last year, I see no reason he couldn't do the same if need be.
19. Alex Bregman, SS/2B
Age: 21 (3/30/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180
Top level: High-A | 2015: NE
Bregman was the best pure college bat in the draft class in 2015, overcoming his lack of speed and questions about his long-term position to end up the second player selected with the first of Houston's two picks in the top five. Bregman posted a composite line of .337/.409/.514 in three years at LSU, playing full-time as a true freshman in 2013, walking more than he struck out and making his fair share of highlight plays at short for the Tigers. I still think he ends up at second base, but I also think he'll hit and will be banging on the Astros' clubhouse door at some point this year.
Bregman has always had two standout attributes: a very compact, direct swing and great hand-eye coordination. He hit everything hard in high school on the showcase circuit, but was going to be a tough sign even before a broken finger wiped out most of his senior year at the Albuquerque (New Mexico) Academy, although the Red Sox made an effort to sign him after picking him in the 29th round in 2012.
Bregman's swing and size lead to projections of very high contact rates and .300-plus averages but only 8-10 homers a year, meaning his offense will be more wrapped up in high OBPs than power. That's fine even if he does slide over to second base, as his arm is fringe-average -- not enough to be an every-day shortstop in the majors -- and his range to his left isn't what teams want at the position. But he has good hands and outstanding instincts, so wherever he moves -- some teams wanted him to catch in high school, although it's too late for that now -- he'll adapt quickly.
The Astros could and probably should start him in Double-A Corpus Christi and let his bat and the major league team's needs determine his timetable.
20. Ozhaino Albies, SS
Age: 19 (1/7/97) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-9 | Weight: 150
Top level: Class A | 2015: 66
Atlanta is now flush with shortstops, so at some point, either Albies or Dansby Swanson may have to move to second base. But for now, Albies should stay at shortstop. He often gets comparisons to Jose Altuve, another undersized but strong middle infielder with an extraordinary feel to hit. Albies was the low-A Sally League's second-youngest regular in 2015, but finished third in the league in batting average with the league's eighth-best strikeout rate (minimum 300 plate appearances).
Albies is a plus runner and above-average fielder at short, with enough arm for the position except for the play from the hole. His swing is very compact and line drive-oriented, but he's unlikely to hit for much power, which would limit his ceiling if he has to move to second base. He can flat-out hit, though, and as long as he's a shortstop, he has a chance to become a star because of his offensive skills.
21. Bradley Zimmer, CF
Age: 23 (11/27/92) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 185
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 84
Zimmer, whose younger brother Kyle is an oft-injured but very talented pitcher in the Royals' system, had a solid first pro season that looked even more impressive when it came out that he'd been playing with a hairline fracture in his right foot for much of the year.
Zimmer is a highly athletic center fielder who still looks good to stay at the position, with above-average speed and long strides that help him cover a ton of ground. At the plate, his swing can be a bit long between his deep loading position and his long levers, but there's good loft in the finish for 20-homer power, and he has a solid approach at the plate, with Double-A pitchers providing his first real challenge. He's always going to strike out a lot, but he'll add value through secondary skills, like power, patience and speed (with his baserunning making strides this past year). An odd footnote on Zimmer's season: He ended the year on a 1-for-25 run with 12 punchouts, enough to raise his K percentage in Double-A from 22 to 25 percent.
22. Franklin Barreto, SS
Age: 19 (2/27/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-9 | Weight: 175
Top level: High-A | 2015: 95
Barreto now wears the mantle as the main return for AL MVP Josh Donaldson, and while that's not quite fair to put on Barreto's shoulders, he's going to turn out to be a very good big leaguer, giving Oakland the shortstop they've lacked for 10 years.
Barreto jumped from short-season ball in the summer of 2014 to the Cal League this year, so he was by far the league's youngest regular at 19, yet still finished well above the median in batting average and slugging even though Stockton is one of the league's worst hitter's parks. He's a plus runner with a compact swing and great bat speed, producing hard contact albeit not much loft. He's an average defender at short, with enough of an arm for the position and plenty of foot speed, making gradual progress over the course of the season on things like footwork and positioning. Barreto did hit 13 bombs last year in fewer than 400 plate appearances, more power than I'd anticipate from his size and swing path, and I think it's more likely he becomes a high-average, high-doubles guy with 8-10 homers a year in the majors. With his defense and ability to make that kind of hard, line-drive contact, he projects as an above-average regular, one who could become more if his OBPs rise once he's not so young for his level.
23. Kevin Newman, SS
Age: 22 (8/4/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: Class A | 2015: NE
I had Newman as the second-best player in the 2015 draft class, but those in the industry disagreed with me -- they often do -- and Newman slid all the way to the 19th pick, where the Pirates, who seemed to target position players with high contact rates, were more than happy to snap him up. (They also took UCLA shortstop Kevin Kramer in the second round, so with Newman and Kramer on Day 1, they had the most Seinfeld-themed draft of any team last year.) Newman is a true shortstop, a plus runner and indeed a guy who rarely swings and misses because he has a short, quick swing that is going to put the ball in play a lot.
Newman is a no-doubt shortstop with the agility, arm and hands to stay at the position, although the Pirates have enough shortstops in the low minors that he might get reps at second base. He's a 65 runner with good base stealing acumen, and his speed plays right out of the box, which could gain him some infield hits. He sets up at the plate with a very wide base and takes no stride, so it's hard for him to transfer his weight ... which has left him with grade-35 or so game power, even though he's strong enough to have more. He has quick hands and great hand-eye coordination, which has always led to good contact rates and would be enough to make him at least a solid-average regular at short, a .300 hitter with maybe five homers per year but a lot of infield hits, good value on the bases and enough walks to post an above-average OBP.
If the Pirates can unlock some of that strength that's lost in his wide setup, however, he has upside well beyond that.
24. Braden Shipley, RHP
Age: 23 (2/22/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 19
Shipley struggled with his command in the first half of 2015 until Arizona's player-development staff found a minor flaw in his mechanics that was inhibiting his ability to repeat his delivery. But after he fixed his issue, he was locked in like his old self. In 72 innings before the Southern League All-Star break, Shipley walked 37, punched out 50 and had a 4.50 ERA; in 85 second-half innings over the same number of starts, he walked just 19 with 68 punchouts and a 2.66 ERA.
Shipley is a three-pitch pitcher whose 92-95-mph fastball can be his worst pitch when he doesn't get completely on top of the ball; it doesn't have much life and needs to be offset by his plus changeup. His curveball is becoming more consistent, and is at least a 55 right now with tight spin and depth. Shipley is an outstanding athlete and former infielder whose delivery is now very smooth and easy to repeat, so throwing strikes won't be a problem. It's just a matter of staying on top of that fastball and keeping it out of the upper half of the strike zone. If he does that, as he did in the second half of 2015, he can be a No. 2 starter in the big leagues.
25. Manuel Margot, CF
Age: 22 (9/28/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 170
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 70
Margot was part of the huge four-player package that the Red Sox shipped to San Diego in exchange for two years of Craig Kimbrel, an outstanding haul for a club that needed help up the middle.
Margot is a very polished player, a natural center fielder with a good approach at the plate and the ability to slow the game down. He's an above-average defender in center with great instincts and plenty of range to handle the large territory in Petco Park. At the plate, he's very disciplined with great bat control, rarely striking out, showing good hip rotation but producing only doubles power. He's a plus runner with added value on the bases, and fits both the old and new profiles for a leadoff hitter. I still see 12-15 homers (in a neutral environment), 30-35 doubles with a high OBP and plus defense in center, which would make him an above-average regular on the cusp of All-Star status.
26. Jose O. Berrios, RHP
Age: 21 (5/27/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 97
Berrios has continued to make great strides in all aspects of the game and was probably ready for a major league callup in September, but the Twins chose not to bring him up at the time. Berrios, a sandwich-round pick in 2012 out of Bayamon, Puerto Rico, will pitch at 92-96 mph with a plus curveball and above-average changeup. He really only lacks fastball plane among the three pitches. That can get him into trouble when he tries too hard to get swings and misses or to strike everyone out and throws harder, and thus straighter, up in the zone rather than working to get outs in the lower part of the strike zone.
After a minor shoulder scare in 2014, he was healthy for a full 166-inning minor league campaign in 2015 -- one in which he walked just 38 guys, by the way -- and should be able to take the ball 30 times for the Twins this year if they give him the chance. He has the command and control, the secondary stuff and the poise to succeed in the majors now, with only the risk of a few too many long balls on that straight four-seamer holding down his ceiling.
27. Willson Contreras, C
Age: 23 (5/13/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Contreras had an unbelievably non-descript career in the Cubs' system coming into 2015, never posting an OBP over .320 and only once slugging at least .400, even though he wasn't young for the levels he played. There was no reason to expect him to break out and become one of the best catcher prospects in baseball, but he did, with huge across-the-board improvements that have made him a legitimate two-way threat behind the plate.
Contreras is a strong, coordinated, athletic kid with great body control, but none of that had manifested in his performances prior to 2015, except in his generally good contact rates. His bat speed seemed to pick up in '15, and with a clean, direct path to the ball, he's going to make a lot of hard contact, though mostly singles and doubles. There isn't big loft in the swing, although he's physically strong enough to hit for power, especially if he had a little more rotation in his path. Behind the plate, he has an easy 70 arm and good energy and actions but needs work on the mechanics of receiving and framing, as well as the finer points, like calling a game.
With just one year of performance like this, there's certainly regression risk, but the tools and athleticism support a projection of an everyday catcher who hits for high averages without striking out and who controls the opposing running game.
28. Trea Turner, SS
Age: 22 (6/30/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Top level: MLB | 2015: 88
Turner should be the Nats' Opening Day shortstop, regardless of all the veterans currently on the roster. He's the best defensive option the team has and probably will post the best OBP of anyone they've got.
Turner is a 70 runner and an outstanding baserunner who has posted outstanding contact rates everywhere he has played other than his brief and confusing big league cup of coffee late in 2015. Turner has a long swing for a low-power/slap guy, getting his hands loaded deep, but it hasn't presented any issues with putting the ball in play, as he has good hand-eye coordination. He's at least an average fielder right now, with the chance to improve there thanks to his athleticism and quick feet. He does need to get stronger to be able to consistently square up major league fastballs, and he's going to have to cover the low/away corner better, as that length in his swing leads to him having trouble against sliders and even fastballs thrown to that spot.
I don't think Turner is a star, but I think he's an everyday shortstop for the Nats for several years to come, and it was an absolute steal for the team to get him and Joe Ross for Steven Souza Jr. in a December 2014 three-team trade.
29. Dominic Smith, 1B
Age: 20 (6/15/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185
Top level: High-A | 2015: 65
Smith is one of the best pure hitters in the minors -- and he has to be, considering he can play only first base defensively and has yet to show his raw power in games after two years of playing in some of the worst parks for left-handed power in the minors.
Smith is an exceptionally smart, low-heartbeat hitter who uses the whole field as well as any 20-year-old in the minors right now; four of the lefty hitter's six homers in 2015 were down the left-field line. His swing is simple and direct, and he has unusual wrist strength to generate so much hard contact. He'll make adjustments within at-bats based on the pitch and the situation, so it's normal to see him shorten up with two strikes just to put something in play or stay back and drop the bat head in a hitter's count when he knows he should get a pitch to drive.
Smith is a 70 defender at first with a 70 arm, but his body has gotten far too big over the past year. Never svelte, he looked sloppy in the Arizona Fall League. We like fat hitters when they can hit, but Smith appears to be blowing off basic conditioning -- even as he's proving to be a more astute hitter. Also, no one wants to see him start to deal with knee or back injuries because he can't keep his weight down. He's one of the best bets in the minors to hit .300 in the majors, with 20-homer upside and elite defense, if he can keep his uniform buttons from bursting.
30. Sean Newcomb, LHP
Age: 22 (6/12/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 245
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 48
Atlanta sees Newcomb as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, possessing a Jon Lester package in terms of stuff and durability, but with an even easier arm action. I understand what they see, and three above-average-to-plus pitches from a big lefty is a good formula for a top prospect. But I have some concerns about his control that I can't handwave away.
Newcomb had no trouble missing bats or keeping runs off the board across three levels of the minors in 2015, with a fastball that's mostly 93-96 mph, a plus changeup in the mid-80s that hitters haven't picked up well, and a two-plane curveball in the upper 70s. The changeup has good action, but his delivery is so easy that it looks just like the fastball out of his hand, and it's a big reason why he punched out 30 percent of the right-handers he faced in 2015.
Here's the problem with Newcomb right now: What is the path to make him better? It's easy to say he'll cut his walk rate, but he already has such an effortless delivery that any such change won't be mechanical. There's a nonzero chance that "effectively wild" is just part of who Newcomb will be going forward, because any improvement in his control will have to come from within his own head.
31. Robert Stephenson, RHP
Age: 22 (2/24/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 200
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 49
The Lighthouse, as he's called, had sort of a mixed-bag season in 2015, introducing a new pitch that turned out to be a real weapon for him but one that he threw too often when he probably should have been working on fastball command. That said, the new weapon, a changeup with split-like tumble, addresses one of the biggest questions about his ability to be a starter.
Stephenson has filled out nicely and is built like a workhorse starter now, working in the mid-90s with a hard curveball that's frequently plus, but prior to last year, his changeup was inconsistent, sometimes above-average and sometimes well below. In 2015, the pitch really took off, to the point where he may have overused it and tried to generate too many swings and misses rather than attacking the zone with his power stuff; he was nibbling or trying to get hitters to chase when he should have just thrown strikes.
The command and pitching plan are all that's holding him back from being an above-average starter in the big leagues, as he has the three potentially plus pitches and the frame for 200 innings. If he can show progress in a return to Triple-A to begin 2016, he should be ready for the Reds' already youthful rotation by midyear.
32. Lewis Brinson, CF
Age: 21 (5/8/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 170
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: NR
Often forgotten in Texas' swarm of more famous hitting prospects, Brinson does something neither Joey Gallo nor Nomar Mazara -- nor even former Rangers prospect Nick Williams, now in the Phillies' system -- can do: play premium defense at a position in the middle of the field. That gives Brinson a fairly high floor, because his glove and ability to hit a mistake pitch out of the park will play in the big leagues, even if he settles in as a great backup outfielder. His ceiling is much higher than that, as he has incredible bat speed and wrist strength that should produce 30-homer seasons if he can make enough contact.
Brinson is wiry-strong with quick-twitch actions, and the Rangers have raved about his work ethic from Day 1 -- which is good, since he still has work to do as he continues to improve his contact rate. His 2015 line was helped by playing in High Desert, although he did hit everywhere in the Cal League, even in games played at something like one g. He's an above-average runner who's comfortably a 70 defender in center, with instinctual reads on balls that allow him to cover a tremendous amount of ground. He's more disciplined at the plate now than he was in 2013 and makes better decisions on when to swing and also when to try and stay back on a ball to put his bat speed to better use.
There haven't been many center fielders with this kind of profile. The most obvious comparable is Mike Cameron, another power/speed/strikeout guy with a great glove in center, although Brinson brings more pop and less speed to the table. You can pick your hoped-for upside from a short list; it's players like Carlos Beltran, Steve Finley, young Curtis Granderson, Ray Lankford, even the player we hoped Grady Sizemore was going to be.
33. Max Kepler, CF
Age: 23 (2/10/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 205
Top level: MLB | 2015: NR
Kepler became the first MLB player born and raised in Germany when he made his debut in September, just more than six years after signing with the Twins for $775,000 as an amateur out of Berlin. (There have been other big leaguers born in Germany, but all were either children of U.S. servicemen/women stationed in Germany or came here as immigrants while very young.) He's a superb athlete who starred in both soccer and tennis as a child, but chose baseball as his focus a few years before signing, showing five-tool potential and starring in the German pro league, the Bundesliga, at ages 15 and 16.
Kepler's pro career has been slowed by injuries, but he made huge progress across the board in 2015, staying healthy for a full season, playing above-average (grade 55) defense in center, and showing a much-improved approach at the plate, even walking more than he struck out. He may not stay in center field long-term as he gets into his mid-20s and faces competition within his organization from Byron Buxton, but should be plus defensively in either corner as long as his arm is healthy.
He has become a much better hitter than I expected, albeit with less power. I think he will still become a 15-20 homer guy with lots of doubles and a strong OBP. Not to put too much on his shoulders, but Kepler might be the first real European MLB star, someone who can help grow the game in markets like his home country of Germany, as well as other pockets where it's popular in the Old World. Oh, and he can help the Twins win a bunch of ballgames, too.
34. Javier Guerra, SS
Age: 20 (9/25/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 155
Top level: Class A | 2015: NR
Guerra went with Manuel Margot and two others to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel swap coming off a huge year for Greenville that saw him play outstanding defense and hit a rather unexpected passel of home runs.
Guerra is a plus defender at shortstop already, with soft hands, easy actions and plenty of arm for the position. The Panamanian has plus bat speed that generates raw power; he finished fourth in the Sally League in home runs even though he was one of the league's youngest regulars. His approach improved the more he played -- he cut his strikeout rate from 29 percent in the first half to 19 percent in the second. However, he's too aggressive to be a high-walk guy right now. Even if his OBPs stay low, he has enormous upside as a 20-homer shortstop who plays plus defense, and at 19, he's young enough to become a more patient hitter and develop into a possible cleanup hitter who competes for MVP awards.
35. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP
Age: 23 (12/1/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Guerrieri lost almost two years while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his command and control seemed to come right back when he did get back on the mound full time in 2015, with only one outing all season in which he walked more than two guys. Guerrieri was 91-94 mph most of the summer, with a plus breaking ball and a changeup that flashed plus. The change is a relatively new pitch for him and he trusts it, but he needs to get more reps with it to get more consistent.
Guerrieri's main problem, other than building up innings, has been some off-field issues that have dogged him since high school. At some point, it starts to say something if you refuse to follow the rules even to the detriment of your professional career. If he can keep himself out of trouble, he has ace upside, which should start to show through more in 2016 when he's no longer limited to five-inning stints.
36. Aaron Judge, OF
Age: 23 (4/26/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 275
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 23
Judge's race to the majors hit a bit of a speed bump in 2015. Pitchers in Double-A and Triple-A both found a weakness to exploit at the plate, meaning Judge, whose ceiling as a middle-of-the-order power bat is unchanged, has to make some adjustments before he's ready to take over right field in the Bronx.
Judge is a huge anomaly -- literally. He's listed at 6-foot-7 and 275 pounds, and only five players in major league history have been at least that tall and weighed that much, and they're all pitchers. Judge is an outfielder, and a good one, capable of playing center in the minors but destined for right field, where he should be above-average or better. He also has a plus arm that will suit him well when he reaches the big leagues.
He has 70 raw power that hasn't shown up in games because his swing is relatively short and he hits more line drives than big flies. He's excellent at covering the inner third despite his long arms, which is a positive skill overall but causes two issues: He hits too many grounders to the left side, and he's very vulnerable to soft stuff away, which led to the excessive strikeout rates in 2015. Learning to cover the outside corner -- or lay off pitches just off of it -- while maintaining that plate coverage inside is the main challenge for Judge if he wants to become an impact bat in the majors. He has 30-homer power and should make enough hard contact to keep his average up even if he still punches out 150 times a year.
37. Steven Matz, LHP
Age: 24 (5/29/91) | B/T: R/L
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 200
Top level: MLB | 2015: NR
Matz is eligible for this list only because he got hurt after his second big league start and spent the next 40 days on the shelf before heading out for a rehab assignment, returning to the rotation in September but keeping his innings total under 50 for the year. Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy.
Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.
Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no.
38. Anderson Espinoza, RHP
Age: 17 (3/9/98) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 160
Top level: Class A | 2015: NR
He might be Pedro Martinez or he might be a right-handed Aroldis Chapman, but one thing Anderson Espinoza will not be is short of hyperbole. The 17-year-old Venezuelan right-hander lit the low minors on fire last year, even finishing the summer with a single outing at Class A Greenville, and won't even turn 18 until March. With three big league-caliber pitches and shocking feel for his age, Espinoza is the living definition of a player being "scary good," because we haven't seen a player like him in quite a while.
Espinoza stuck to about four innings per outing in 2015, by which I mean he went exactly four innings in 13 straight outings before he actually pitched poorly enough to be removed from a game for a reason other than a pitch count. He sat 94-99 mph all summer, and also showed a plus changeup and a plus curveball, although he wouldn't necessarily have all three pitches working on any single night. He has great confidence in the changeup and will use it against right-handed batters, a great sign for his pitching acumen, given his youth. His body looks as if it'll fill out enough for him to handle a starter's workload, but he's already throwing so hard -- and so easy -- at 17 that it's hard to come up with enough comparisons in recent memory to talk intelligently about the odds he'll stay healthy as a starter. If he does, we'll be talking about him in the same way as we did young King Felix and Doc Gooden.
39. Aaron Blair, RHP
Age: 23 (5/26/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 230
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 37
Blair came to Atlanta in the Shelby Miller deal, a trade that made no sense on its face but even less when you consider that Blair is already a major league-ready starter, and a big strike-thrower who posted a 3.16 ERA in half a year in hitter-friendly Reno. Blair should spend much, if not all, of 2016 in Atlanta's rotation; he already has shown he can dominate Triple-A hitters, generating ground balls thanks to the heavy sink on his low-90s fastball and missing bats with a plus changeup. He's still developing a curveball that will at least show average a few times per outing.
Blair missed bats in the low minors, but better hitters managed to put the ball in play against him in 2015 -- but usually on the ground (52 percent of the time, per MLBfarm.com research). That and his ability to limit walks is already a good formula for a fourth or even a No. 3 starter, and if Blair can continue to improve his curveball, which is already up at least a full grade since he signed, he has a chance to become an above-average starter capable of handling 210-220 innings a year.
40. Francis Martes, RHP
Age: 20 (11/24/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight:225
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Martes was an 18-year-old Gulf Coast League starter with an ERA near six when the Astros got him as a late addition to the July 2014 deal that brought over Colin Moran in exchange for Kiké Hernandez and Jarred Cosart, yet now there's a realistic chance he'll end up being the best player in the entire trade. Martes started 2015 in low-A, absolutely laughed his way through a half-dozen starts in the Cal League (three in Lancaster and one at High Desert!), and finished the year as a 19-year-old starter for Double-A Corpus Christi. He had three outings all year -- two in those Cal League parks plus his Double-A debut -- in which he gave up more than two runs. It's an incredible combination of stuff and feel for someone so young, and a great job by the Astros' scout who spotted him in the GCL.
Martes will pitch at 94-97 mph as a starter and fills up the zone with strikes, commanding the fastball within the zone, although the life on the pitch can range from fringy to big tailing action. He has a now curveball too, low 80s with power, harder with more tilt when he wants a chase with two strikes -- another example of his advanced feel -- and he has a usable changeup that he has largely kept in his pocket because he often works with two grade-70 weapons.
He has a thick body, but not in a negative sense, with the only real concern that at 6-foot-1, he doesn't get a lot of plane on the fastball. It's the profile of a fourth starter without a lot of development, or a No. 2 starter or better if that changeup becomes a legitimate third weapon for him.
41. Jesse Winker, OF
Age: 22 (8/17/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 40
Winker is a pure bat, one of the most disciplined hitters in the minors, but 2015 saw him start to develop the power he's going to need if he's going to be an above-average regular in left field.
Winker's at-bats have been tremendous since the day he got into pro ball; not only does he walk a lot, but he works the count like a major league veteran and tries to get himself into hitter's counts so he can find a pitch to drive. He started slow in his first full season in Double-A last year, but homered in his first game of the second half and hit .316/.426/.516 through the end of the season with 10 homers, 41 walks and 43 strikeouts -- in the context of park and league, that's his best power output of any stage of his career to date. His swing is very simple and clean, with a direct path to the ball and enough hip rotation for him to be an 18-20 homer guy at his peak. He has played left and right field, and probably would work his way up to average in right, but he's already average in left and there's an opening in Cincinnati at that position right now.
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS project Winker to post a .333 OBP in the majors in 2016, higher than any current Reds hitter other than Joey Votto, and I can't disagree with that assessment. Winker would make their offense better right away, even as he continues to grow into his power and work on his defense.
42. Amed Rosario, SS
Age: 20 (11/20/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 170
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 69
Rosario was the youngest position player in the Florida State League, jumping over the Sally League (and Savannah, a brutal park for hitters) and making a surprising amount of contact for a player of his age and lack of full-season experience. Rosario has outstanding tools, from plus-plus bat speed to plus raw power to a plus arm -- yes, a lot of pluses -- to above-average range at short. He makes a lot of difficult plays look easy and has the excellent hands at short to become an excellent defender there in time. At the plate, he has good plate coverage if not plate discipline, and stays inside the ball very well, wearing out the right fielder rather than trying to pull pitches on the outer half.
He'll probably go to Double-A Binghamton, a more neutral hitting environment, but I expect a little more of the power to come through. He has the kind of raw tools and athleticism to be a top 10 prospect in the game in a year.
43. Kolby Allard, LHP
Age: 18 (8/13/97) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Top level: Rookie | 2015: NE
Allard came into the spring of 2015 as the top pitching prospect in the draft, but a stress reaction in his lower back ended his spring just a few outings after it began, which allowed Atlanta to grab him with the 14th pick -- unusually low for the first prep arm to go off the board. Allard had been working on a strengthening program anyway, continued it after signing, then punched out 12 of the 20 batters he faced in pro ball before Atlanta shut him down.
Allard is a shade over six foot and wiry, but what comes out of his arm is electric: 92-95 mph fastball, hammer curveball and some feel for a changeup that he probably won't need for a year or more as he dominates low-minors hitters with the first two pitches. His changeup has some tumble to it and his arm speed is good, but he'll need to use the pitch more to develop his feel for it and to keep hitters off his fastball, which can get a little true up in the zone. Allard is still very young -- he'll pitch most of the season at age 18 -- and has so little track record of work that he's mostly projection right now. The main objective for 2016: having a full, healthy season.
44. A.J. Reed, 1B
Age: 22 (5/10/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4| Weight: 240
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Reed won the Golden Spikes Award in the spring of 2014 for his play at the University of Kentucky, but he slid to the second round in that summer's draft due to concerns about his lack of any position but first base and his ability to hit better fastballs. He ended up as my prospect of the year for 2015, dominating high-A and Double-A in his first full pro season and laying claim to first base in Houston for the foreseeable future.
Reed has outstanding power and moves well for a big guy, finding success as a pitcher for Kentucky as well as at first base, with a sound approach at the plate. The 34 homers he hit and even the high walk total aren't a huge surprise. The knock on Reed coming out of Kentucky -- one I shared, by the way -- was that his bat speed wasn't great, maybe not even quite average, although I heard varying opinions on that this year. (I last saw Reed in the Arizona Fall League, where he was so tired he might as well have been swinging a bat made of lead.) His eye at the plate and his decision-making are both so good, however, that even if he gets a pitch he can't turn on, he can still shoot it the other way for a hit -- at least often enough that guys throwing gas in the Texas League didn't carve him up the way we might have expected them to a year ago. He is still clearly limited to first and isn't a plus defender there like Dom Smith, so he's going to have to continue to get on base and hit for power. Even if he's just a .260 hitter with a slew of walks and 25-30 homers, however, he'll look like Jimmie Foxx given what the Astros have run out there at first lately.
45. Tim Anderson, SS
Age: 22 (6/23/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 67
Anderson came to baseball a bit later than most players, so the fact that he already has had success at Double-A at the plate and on defense is a testament to his outsized athletic abilities. The question now is whether he's an 8- or 9-hole hitter or whether he can develop enough of an approach at the plate to hit near the top of the order instead.
Anderson is a plus-plus runner with good actions at short, much improved thanks to his work with Birmingham manager Ever Magallanes last year, and has the quick hands and bat speed to hit major league-caliber pitching. His approach is overly aggressive now and his recognition of balls and strikes remains poor, resulting in both a low walk rate and at-bats that often end too soon before he can get a pitch to drive.
The player he is now is still a big leaguer, a bottom-of-the-order bat who might hit .280 with a low OBP but play above-average defense at short and steal a bunch of bases. He has the potential to be so much more if he develops any sort of a plan at the plate, which would almost certainly mean another year in the minors to work on his approach.
46. Brett Phillips, OF
Age: 21 (5/30/94) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A | 2015: 76
Phillips' power spike in 2014 -- he hit 17 homers after hitting none in his first 376 pro at-bats -- held serve into 2015, through a promotion to Double-A and a trade to Milwaukee that sets him up to potentially reach the majors by the end of this year. Phillips is an excitable, toolsy player, a plus runner who doesn't so much throw the ball as amplify it optically via stimulated emission. He has bat speed, but it's a fairly flat swing, with power coming from hard contact rather than big loft or rotation; when he hits his peak, he might be a 15-homer guy, though I'd probably take the under on that today.
A majority of scouts think he'll end up in right field. I would at least let him stay in center for the time being, given his speed, and see if he can develop the reads to become an average defender there. Even in right, he should profile as an above-average regular thanks to his plus defense, Yoenis Cespedes-like arm and the potential to hit for high averages, with added value coming from his work on the bases.
47. Ian Happ, 2B
Age: 21 (8/12/94) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205
Top level: Class A | 2015: NE
Happ was a very advanced college bat heading into the 2015 draft, leading the Cubs to take him ninth overall even though a lot of clubs retained questions about his ultimate position since he played a lot of first base and corner outfield as an amateur. He's a better athlete than that description implies, however, more than capable of playing an average second base, and with an outstanding approach that leads to high OBPs he should be a fast mover through the low minors.
Happ is a switch-hitter, smoother and shorter from the left side, less consistent and longer right-handed, although the latter could improve with coaching help and more reps. He has 15-20 homer potential, driven more by his contact rate than any need to get stronger or change a swing. He has played all over the place between his amateur days and limited pro experience, with the Cubs sending him out as an outfielder, including center field, for his first summer in the organization, but I still think his ultimate position will be second base, as he has the agility and hands for it and the bat will certainly profile there. He's not afraid to run deep counts and will probably end up as a high-walk, moderately high-strikeout hitter (as if that means anything at all in 2015, when Joe Sewell would be burned at the stake as some sort of witch) who produces plenty of offense for whatever position he ends up playing.
48. Michael Fulmer, RHP
Age: 22 (3/15/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 200
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR
Fulmer was the Mets' best pitching prospect still in the minors at the trade deadline and became the Tigers' primary return for two months of Yoenis Cespedes -- a great return for a club that had rarely found itself in the position of being sellers.
Fulmer's fastball is 93-97 mph with a plus slider and solid-average changeup, getting good downhill plane on his fastball thanks to a high three-quarters slot and depth on a curveball with good spin. His delivery isn't perfect and could push him to a relief role in time, although he already has plus control and has the three pitches to remain a starter. Of greater concern: he has had knee and elbow issues already, with 2015's innings total of 124 2/3 a new career best.
He's probably ready for the majors now, but since there's no room at the inn in Detroit, he'll likely start the year in Triple-A. With little left for him to work on, he should be the first starter recalled when there's an opening in the Tigers' rotation.
49. Victor Robles, CF
Age: 18 (5/19/97) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185
Top level: Low-A | 2015: SL
Signed for $225,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, Robles has quickly become one of the best teenage prospects in baseball with four tools that are or will be plus. Robles is an 80 runner with 70 range in center field and a plus arm, showing good instincts in the field for someone his age, instincts that carry over to his understanding of the strike zone as well. Right now he's geared for contact at the plate, with a short path to the ball and quick hands, but gets over his front side a little soon and doesn't use his legs much for power. He's physically capable of hitting for power, but it'll require some work on his swing mechanics to unlock that.
He looks like the player Ben Revere was supposed to be: a base stealer and great center fielder who can hit and get on base. If the power shows up at some point, he's a potential All-Star.
50. Dillon Tate, RHP
Age: 21 (5/1/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 165
Top level: Class A | 2015: NE
Tate was the fourth pick in the 2015 draft, the first pitcher taken, and could move quickly as a reliever with two plus pitches and more than enough control for the role. The Rangers are wisely working him as a starter for now, developing his third pitch and fastball command, trying to take advantage of his athleticism without losing the funk in his delivery that provides him with some deception to keep hitters off the straight 93-97-mph fastball.
Tate's best pitch is his 82-86-mph slider, hard but frequently out of the zone, and he'll show a changeup with good action but can slow his arm just enough for a hitter to pick up on it. He has a lot of extra movement in his delivery, as if he's trying to mimic Dontrelle Willis from the right side. His delivery provides him with some deception but his timing can be inconsistent, which is why he doesn't yet have average fastball command.
Tate was a reliever at UC Santa Barbara until his junior year, so he has relatively little experience turning lineups over three times and will benefit from regular work as a starter, throwing his changeup more and having to better command his fastball. There's No. 2 starter upside with low probability but a fairly high floor as a high-leverage reliever.