Every year, I put together a draft list of the top 100 prospects, send it around to scouts and front-office execs, get their feedback, send around a fresh list, and end up considering 20 to 30 more names than those I ultimately include. If I'd continued past 100, here are the next 10 names I would have included
Justin Nicolino, LHP, Miami Marlins
Maybe the highest-floor guy in the minors or the poor man's Marco Gonzales. Nicolino might be the most efficient pitcher in baseball, throwing 13 pitches an inning last year, getting groundballs and avoiding walks ... but he just doesn't miss bats, despite a plus changeup, and his strikeout rate of 11.8 percent is lower than that of any MLB pitcher who qualified for the ERA title in 2013 or 2014.
Sean Manaea, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Manaea's ability to miss bats is a huge point in his favor; I just worry about how he does it, with average to above-average stuff but no truly plus pitch. It's very hard to pick the ball up out of Manaea's hand, as he hides it well behind his torso, but he's pitching mostly at 90-to-93 mph with a good but not wipeout slider. I think he's a big league starter, for sure, but I'm not sure how high his ceiling is unless the slider or the much-improved changeup becomes an out pitch.
Francelis Montas, RHP, Chicago White Sox
When I saw him in the Arizona Fall League, I thought for sure he'd make the list, but the list of factors working against him was too long. He has an 80 fastball, hitting 102 mph in instructs, but his command and secondary stuff aren't average yet, and he's already had two knee surgeries, possibly related to his girth. He might be a No. 1 starter, but there's a greater chance that he ends up a reliever, with all kinds of possibilities in between.
Dilson Herrera, 2B, New York Mets
Herrera is one of my personal favorites and probably the most difficult name to leave off just given how much I like watching him play. In the end I favored a few players with slightly higher ceilings to Herrera, who, in case I haven't mentioned it, I really like quite a bit as a prospect. If Herrera hadn't looked so shaky at times on defense in the majors, I might have slipped him in at No. 100 instead of Max Fried, who has No. 2 starter upside but is out after elbow surgery.
Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres
Wisler is a solid big-league starter, but just not special. I saw him in a spring training start where he had an outside chance to make the major-league rotation, and he wilted, with poor command and just average secondary stuff. Scouts who saw him during 2014 saw 92-to-95 velocity, an average-to-above slider and a fringy changeup. However he doesn't possess the command or swing-and-miss offering he'll need to be more than a quality fourth starter.
Miguel Castro, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Castro has starter stuff, a heavy fastball up at 95-to-96 with a plus change, but it's a low slot and an extremely slight build that may not last if he's asked to be a starter. He's lean, but not projectable, and his future may be in relief instead.
Aristides Aquino, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Huge tools, enough to make the list on those merits alone, and he has a top 50 overall name ("Big Papa Doc?" Too soon?), but a 20-year-old in the Pioneer League should probably have better plate discipline than he showed. It's a huge physical power/speed combination if he can show that he can work the count more effectively when the game speeds up next year, especially since he'll be a bit old for low-A at 21.
Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Mejia was my sleeper for Cleveland last year -- meaning the non-top 100 player I thought had the best chance in the system to jump on to the middle of the top 100 this winter -- and had a solid 2014 season. However he was just not strong enough to get all the way into the main list. Mejia continues to improve in the critical areas, including working on his English, but catchers tend to develop more slowly than position players at other positions and he's no exception so far.
Nick Kingham, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Just a numbers game, as Kingham is going to pitch in a MLB rotation soon, probably this spring or summer, and do so for a while. It's about 50/50 whether he or A.J. Cole has the more valuable career, but Cole has the much better chance to have some All-Star caliber seasons, while Kingham will likely be the more steady, undervalued fourth starter type.
Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
If Adames hadn't been the lone prospect going to Tampa Bay in the David Price trade, and had simply spent the year with West Michigan in the Tigers' system, would he be as well-known as he is? Would there have been as much hype around him, or clamoring for him to be in my top 100? Evaluated strictly on his own merits, Adames falls a bit short of that status. The Rays think he can stay at shortstop, while other scouts didn't back that up. His body isn't very projectable, so though the swing should produce more power, it's hard to base a rating on the expectation of a huge increase in his homer totals. He's a solid prospect, but I think the reasons Rays fans wanted him in the top 100 weren't directly connected to his skill set.