Organization ranking: 24
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Diamondbacks prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Braden Shipley, RHP (24)
2. Archie Bradley, RHP (84
3. Brandon Drury, 3B/2B
4. Socrates Brito, OF
5. Anthony Banda, LHP
6. Taylor Clarke, RHP
7. Alex Young, LHP
8. Wei-Chieh Huang, RHP
9. Cody Reed, LHP
10. Brad Keller, RHP
Overview
Brandon Drury is a tough one to rate because the Diamondbacks have been working with him at second base, a position that's a bit of a stretch for him, while he had worked his way up to average or above at third. He's a strong kid, but at-bat he provides more doubles power than home runs, although he's hit pretty much everywhere he's played other than the swamps of Mobile. If he can really play second base at an average level, he's a top-100 prospect. Socrates Brito is a speed/power guy with a lot of flash to his game, lacking much polish or even great instincts right now, whether it's at the plate, on the bases, or in the field. There's some upside here, a potentially above-average everyday center fielder -- not 2015 A.J. Pollock-level good, of course -- if Brito can develop his feel for the game to get closer to his tools.
Alex Young and Taylor Clarke were both in the D-backs' 2015 draft class; in fact, with Dansby Swanson traded, they're the top two picks remaining. Anthony Banda,\ was acquired in the 2014 trade that sent Gerardo Parra to Milwaukee; he shows three above-average to plus pitches with a clean delivery as a starter, and was the system's biggest breakout guy in 2015 as he pitched well in the hitter-friendly Cal League. He's not huge but is athletic, with has a No. 3 starter ceiling. Young is a command lefty with an above-average slider, a starter for now with high reliever probability. Clarke has a high slot that makes it very tough for right-handed hitters to see the ball, getting some late life on the fastball, with a good changeup but rudimentary slider.
Wei-Chieh Huang is a 6-foot-1 right-hander with an average fastball, above-average changeup, and some of the best command in the organization, but he lacks fastball plane and is a bit fly-ball prone. Cody Reed is a hefty lefty who can touch 95 mph complemented with an above-average breaking ball and good control, but he will have to continue to work on his conditioning to keep himself healthy. Brad Keller is a big guy too at 6-foot-3/230, but he pounds the strike zone with outstanding control and a good feel for his two-seamer, touching 95 mph but getting more ground balls (58 percent of the time) than missed bats.
Right-hander Tyler Wagner (11) was just acquired with Jean Segura from Milwaukee; he’s a sinker/slider guy with a chance to be a fifth starter right now because he has enough changeup and control to turn a lineup over. Austin Byler (12) was a senior signing out of Nevada in the 11th round in 2015; he’s a former third baseman moved to first base over the summer who has a good eye and above-average power, but who has to show he can hit better velocity as he moved up. He finished second in the Pioneer League in slugging and ninth in OBP, but at 22 years old was old for the level.
Right-hander Matt Koch (13) is a reliever acquired from the Mets in August for Addison Reed. He is a cutter guy with a starter's build but probably a reliever's delivery and repertoire. He’s likely to start the year in Triple-A and help the big club in some role this summer. Shortstop Domingo Leyba (14) was only 19 years old in the Cal League and didn't perform at the plate, but he was solid on defense and has the hand-eye coordination to make contact now, just lacking the strength to do much when he squares the ball up.
The D-backs' sixth-rounder in 2015, right-hander Tyler Mark (15), is a great athlete with somewhat limited pitching experience compared to most college guys. He’s a former reliever who clocks in with 92-94 mph heat mixed in with an above-average slider; the D-backs are trying to develop him as a starter. Right-hander Sam McWilliams (16), acquired from Philadelphia for Jeremy Hellickson, has been throwing up to 96 mph complemented with a future average-grade breaking ball, and he’s still projectable at 6-foot-7. Outfielder Marcus Wilson (17) spent his second summer in short-season ball, showing some improvement in his approach but still none of the power he flashed as an amateur. Adam Miller (18) has hit 100 mph on the gun and sits 97-98 mph but adds only an inconsistent slider; he has closer upside if he can get that slider to be just average because it's so hard. Collin Bray (19) is a plus runner who can handle center field and should eventually hit for power, but isn't very advanced as a hitter and was 22 in the Midwest League.
2016 impact
The big league D-backs will be young but will probably not include any rookies to start the year. Wagner and Drury are in line to come up early if there's an injury or other opportunity, and Koch or Miller could surface in the pen during the year.
The fallen
The Diamondbacks gave Yoan Lopez $8 million before the 2015 season, only to have him show less stuff than promised, then get on the bad side of his coaches in Double-A, and to hit their top prospect at the time, Dansby Swanson, in the face with a pitch in a simulated game. (I've been told Lopez quick-pitched Swanson, but the Diamondbacks would not confirm this.) He also missed most of the year with an elbow problem, after posting a 4.69 ERA with a walk every other inning in 10 appearances.
Sleeper
It's definitely Banda. A lefty with a shot at three plus pitches and his results is already a fringe top-100 guy, and if he does this again in Double-A, he'll be on every team's radar.