Organization ranking: 14
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Rays prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Blake Snell, LHP (14)
2. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP (35)
3. Brent Honeywell, RHP (64)
4. Daniel Robertson, SS (85)
5. Willy Adames, SS
6. Richie Shaffer, 3B/RF
7. Garrett Whitley, OF
8. Chih-Wei Hu, RHP
9. Jake Bauers, 1B
10. Chris Betts, C
Overview
The Rays' system took a nice step forward in 2015, with Snell's big breakout, Honeywell emerging as a potential back-end starter, some upside bets with their first two picks and the quiet theft of Hu from the Twins for Kevin Jepsen.
Adames is a tough prospect to get one's arms around, and not just because he's thickly built: He plays shortstop, but no one outside of Tampa Bay thinks he can stay there; and he has a good idea at the plate, but hasn't shown any power, and most of the scouts I've talked to are skeptical that he'll get to enough of it to profile at third or second. This ranking splits the baby and puts him as a regular, but not more than an average one. Shaffer would be a regular for a lot of clubs right now but is blocked at third base; he looked OK in a couple of games in right field in Triple-A and the majors last year, which would at least help get his bat in the lineup. What you saw from him in September is a good snapshot of who he is: a low-average power hitter who'll draw some walks and strike out more than a guy with his bat speed should. He's a few lucky swings from a 25-homer season at any time, though.
Whitley and Betts were the Rays' top two picks in the 2015 draft, both high school position players with some star potential. Whitley is crude but toolsy, coming from upstate New York, where the opposing pitching wasn't good, but he had a strong summer in 2014 facing better arms from across the country. Betts was probably a first-rounder before he hurt his elbow, and Tommy John surgery will probably keep him out of games 'til short-season ball, but he's a power-hitting catcher with a good approach and, prior to surgery at least, a plus arm. Hu is 92 to 95 mph as a starter with plus control and about average command, flashing an above-average changeup and slider, though neither are very consistent. He's not built like a typical starter, lacking much plane since he's barely 6-foot-1, but he has a durable body and frame. Bauers finished the year as a 19-year-old in Double-A. He has a very short, simple swing and makes a ton of contact, but I don't see any power in there, and he probably can't play anywhere other than first base.
Casey Gillaspie (11) had a miserable full-season debut, struggling in the Midwest League, for which he was too old and advanced, and then he broke his hand just as he was starting to perform more in line with expectations. He's strictly a first baseman with some feel to hit and raw strength, but his swing doesn't use his lower half for power, and his plate discipline is below-average. Joe McCarthy (12) was a potential first-rounder in 2015 but hurt his back and missed almost the whole spring. He's a corner outfielder with great hand-eye coordination and strong contact skills over power. Mikie Mahtook (13) looks ready to be a major league fourth outfielder, although the nine homers he hit in 41 major league games is probably a bit misleading; his previous high in any full season was 12. Lefty Enny Romero (14) is in the bullpen where he belongs, but as a fastball-changeup guy, he doesn't actually get left-handed hitters out, so his value to most current major league rosters is limited.
Andrew Velazquez (14) is probably a quality utility infielder in the end but has an outside chance to end up a starter at second, because he can run and has a short, slashing stroke to put the ball in play. Justin O'Conner (15) is an elite defensive catcher who can really catch, frame and throw, but he just posted a .255 OBP in Double-A, with literally one walk every other week. Right-hander Jacob Faria (16), the Rays' 10th-round pick in 2011, took a big step forward last year, more in command and feel than pure stuff. He's a fastball-changeup guy, and both pitches are now above average. Justin Williams (17), who came with Velazquez in the Jeremy Hellickson trade, finally saw his free-swinging approach bite him in the Midwest League, but he still has plus-plus raw power and will play most of 2016 at age 20. Adrian Rondon (18), the team's big international signing in 2014, did not look ready for the Gulf Coast League at all in 2015, with zero approach and even some trouble at shortstop, but he didn't turn 17 until July and probably belonged in the DSL. Right-hander Garrett Fulenchek (19), acquired for international bonus slot money from Atlanta, was a mechanical mess when the Rays got him, but he has been reworking his delivery this offseason to try to get more power from his legs and a looser arm swing. Kevin Padlo (20), just acquired in the Jake McGee/Corey Dickerson swap, is a somewhat thick-bodied third baseman who has shown he can hit mediocre pitching but might not have the power to profile at a corner, especially if he has to move to first base.
2016 impact
Shaffer could fight his way into everyday at-bats with a strong spring, but would have to bump aside one or more of Steven Souza Jr. and James Loney or wait for another injury to Evan Longoria. Mahtook and Romero should see some time in the big leagues this year.
The fallen
Nick Ciuffo was a first-rounder in 2013 out of a South Carolina high school, a good catch-and-throw guy with power but questions about his hit tool. He lost a lot of weight to illness in 2014, but even outside of that year has never hit in three summers in pro ball, with a .249/.281/.324 line in 750 pro plate appearances.
Sleeper
Hu emerged from nowhere in 2015 but really impressed the Rays with his arsenal and aggressive style of pitching, culminating in a playoff start in which he threw eight shutout innings for high-A Port Charlotte, with nine punchouts and just one walk. He's not as tall as most starters, but he does get an adequate ground ball rate and is strongly built like a starter should be.