Organization ranking: 13
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Yankees prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Aaron Judge, OF (36)
2. Jorge Mateo, SS (55)
3. Gary Sanchez, C (57)
4. James Kaprielian, RHP (87)
5. Ian Clarkin, LHP
6. Dustin Fowler, CF
7. Wilkerman Garcia, SS
8. Drew Finley, RHP
9. Kyle Holder, SS
10. Tyler Wade, SS
Overview
The Yankees' system is trending back upward, despite some trades and disappointing performances from upper-level prospects, thanks to a couple productive drafts that have helped restock the lower levels.
Clarkin was one of the team's three first-round picks in the 2013 draft, along with Judge and Eric Jageilo (traded this winter for Aroldis Chapman), but he missed all of 2015 because of an elbow injury. He returned to throw in the Arizona Fall League and was 89-93 mph with a plus curveball, average control and an inconsistent but promising changeup. I still see a mid-rotation ceiling here if he can stay healthy. Fowler is a very toolsy center fielder who can hit and run and has some latent power. He is a great find for $275,000 in the 18th round, with a chance to be an above-average everyday player if the power develops. Garcia was part of the Yanks' huge spending spree in the international market in 2014. He got a $1.35 million bonus and looks like the best investment of the lot so far. He's a shortstop who will probably move to third due to his lack of foot speed, but he has a very good swing and feel for the strike zone already. (He's way ahead of Dermis Garcia, who has huge raw power, 20 speed and no position.) Finley, the son of Dodgers executive Dave Finley, is a super-polished high-school arm with a plus curveball and outstanding command and feel for pitching. He isn't very projectable and will probably settle in with a solid-average fastball, but he gets great extension out front and already has a swing-and-miss pitch in his breaking ball.
Holder was the Yankees' second pick in 2015, taken in the supplemental round. He's a plus-plus defender at short with mixed reviews on the bat, though he doesn't have to hit that much to be a big leaguer, thanks to his defense. He's a former high-school basketball standout who didn't commit full-time to baseball until reaching junior college, so there could be more growth here than with a normal college product. Right-hander Brady Lail (11) has excellent control and a breaking ball that looks plus and generated some swings and misses in the minors, but overall, he doesn't generate enough strikeouts to profile as more than a fringe-average major league starter. Ben Gamel (12) finally had his breakout year at the plate, with career highs in homers, OBP and slugging -- he also had 14 triples, which doubled his career total -- and might just have enough power to profile as a regular in a corner. Lefty reliever Jacob Lindgren (13) reached the majors just a year after he was drafted, but bone spurs in his left elbow required surgery and ended his season in mid-June. If he's healthy for 2016, he should be able to take over Justin Wilson's slot in the bullpen -- not that the Yankees need another quality arm there. Luis Cessa (14) is a strike-throwing right-hander and converted infielder who came from Detroit in the Wilson trade. He has an average fastball and plus command but no above-average pitch to make him a clear starter. Catcher Luis Torrens (15) missed all of 2015 after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder but was a potential breakout candidate going into the past season. If healthy, he has the upside of an everyday catcher who hits for average with some pop.
Mason Williams (16) either finally made an adjustment at the plate last year or was just too experienced after spending a year-plus in Double-A before repeating the level again. Either way, he hurt his shoulder while diving into a bag in June and ended up having surgery in August, which ended his season. He's still a plus defender in center and could be the backup outfielder if one of their current big league options gets hurt. Trey Amburgey (17) was the team's 13th-round pick this year out of St. Petersburg (Junior) College. He is a very athletic power/speed guy who had a .346/.399/.523 pro debut at age 20, including five homers in 21 games for advanced short-season Staten Island. Robert Refsnyder (18) can hit for enough average to be a major league bench player, but he's not good enough at second base to play there, and the bat really isn't enough for him to be an everyday corner outfielder. Third baseman Miguel Andujar (19) and second baseman/shortstop Abiatal Avelino both struggled as 20-year-olds in high-A Tampa. Avelino has the flashier tools and more speed, but I think Andujar has a better chance to hit, and he definitely has more power and strength right now for better contact. Fifth-rounder (in the 2015 draft) Chance Adams (20) punched out more than 31 percent of the hitters he faced the past summer in his pro debut. He is 97-98 mph with a hard slider and has a good history of throwing strikes.
Domingo Acevedo has been up to 100 mph, even as a starter. He was 94-98 when I saw him in the AFL, but it's a reliever's delivery, and he has about 30-grade command right now. The Yankees also will get Ty Hensley and Austin DeCarr back from Tommy John surgery this year.
Wilkerman Garcia has already graduated to the Gulf Coast League, but the Yanks still have a lot of high-bonus players from 2014 who have yet to come out of the Dominican Summer League. Colombian outfielder Bryan Emery, a convert from the infield, came out of the chute strong the past summer but wore down as the season went on. He's a corner bat with power and some adjustability in his swing. Diego Castillo is a Venezuelan shortstop who is an above-average defender there right now, but he needs to get stronger at the plate without losing agility in the field, as he is just an average runner and might not stay at short if he gets too thick. Miguel Flames is a catcher and first baseman who had a huge summer in the DSL, showing doubles power and the ability to use the whole field. He played first base more than he caught the past summer, and if he continues to hit like this, the Yanks might choose to move him off the position, a la Bryce Harper or Wil Myers. Nelson Gomez is a big-bodied third baseman who led the DSL with 11 homers and has worked to try to get his body in shape to allow him to stay at third. Jason Lopez is a Venezuelan catcher whom the Yankees converted from third base -- they do this often, as with Torrens, which makes a ton of sense, given the scarcity of decent catchers in the minors -- who has a plus arm and is a plus runner but is still learning the art of catching.
There are plenty of other kids, mostly still 17 and 18 years old, with tools that would make them worth mentioning. A couple of them should appear on the team's top 20 next offseason, with Emery the most likely.
2016 impact
If healthy, Lindgren should serve as a viable lefty option in the Yanks' bullpen. Also, John Barbato could surface in the bullpen this summer. He is 95-97 mph with a hard curveball he can manipulate to get a little tilt, but he has 40 command and 40-45 control. Refsnyder and Williams could see major league time depending on injuries to the major league roster. I thought last winter that Judge would be ready to take over in right field by this point, but his issues covering the outer third of the plate in Double-A and Triple-A proved me wrong.
The fallen
Stat scouts beware: Dante Bichette Jr. hit .342/.446/.505 in 240 plate appearances in his Gulf Coast League debut, but he hasn't hit since. He earned a demotion from Double-A Trenton to high-A Tampa after posting a .228/.266/.319 line for the Thunder.
Sleeper
Fowler has top-100-prospect tools and has performed rather well to date, despite aggressive promotions. He and Torrens are the best bets to make the leap in 2016.