Organization ranking: 19
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Cardinals prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Alex Reyes, RHP (8)
2. Marco Gonzales, LHP (76)
3. Jack Flaherty, RHP (83)
4. Junior Fernandez, RHP (Just missed)
5. Magneuris Sierra, OF
6. Edmundo Sosa, SS
7. Carson Kelly, C
8. Jake Woodford, RHP
9. Luke Weaver, RHP
10. Nick Plummer, OF
Overview
Magneuris Sierra is an above-average defender in center field who can really run, but he was overmatched by the more polished pitchers of the Midwest League, especially when they could throw breaking stuff for strikes; he recovered after a demotion to the Appalachian League, making more and better-quality contact. He's not going to hit for much power but should have plenty of doubles, along with the speed and defense. Edmundo Sosa can play shortstop and has a chance to be an offensive contributor, as well, with a slightly long swing at the start that still produces plenty of contact, although multiple scouts reported to me concerns about Sosa's makeup.
Carson Kelly has improved dramatically behind the plate, to the point where you would no longer think he was a converted third baseman, but his offense has not developed as expected, especially in terms of OBP. He was better the last two months of the season, starting to make consistently harder contact for the first time in his pro career. Jake Woodford was the team's second pick (sandwich round) in June, a true sinker/slider guy -- in a small sample in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, he posted a 71 percent ground-ball rate -- with good feel to pitch and a repeatable delivery. Luke Weaver was their first-rounder the year before, a fastball/changeup starter who was throwing 92 to 95 mph in relief in the Fall League but still lacked an average breaking pitch. He has a curveball and slider that just don't work yet. Nick Plummer was the Cardinals’ first pick in 2015 out of a Michigan high school, a corner outfielder with great bat speed and above-average raw power, but coming from such bad competition, he was somewhat overmatched by Gulf Coast League pitching. He's a bright, competitive kid capable of making adjustments; the only real change in his outlook is that he might take longer to develop, perhaps returning to short-season ball in 2016.
Tim Cooney (11) is a potential fifth or sixth starter who could help out of the pen this year, as well; he's a command guy who may be too homer-prone to handle full-time starting duties. Right-hander Derian Gonzalez (12) was 20 in the Gulf Coast League but was throwing up to 95 mph with a plus curveball that shows tight spin and an average changeup; he has command and can work side to side, with a little projection left, and should be able to jump right to the Peoria rotation this year. Outfielder Harrison Bader (13), the Cards' third-round pick last year out of the University of Florida, has average power and some feel to hit, although the body's a bit stiff, and I'm not sure about adjustments once the game speeds up at higher levels. Right-hander Sam Tuivailala (14) has an 80-grade fastball and can flash a plus slider, but so far he hasn't had the command and control to harness them; however, he's just 22 and hasn't been pitching that long.
Fireballer Sandy Alcantara (15) has hit 101 mph and is regularly throwing up to 97 mph with a plus slider, but he's very raw with grade-35 command. He and Gonzalez are both Rule 5 eligible after the 2016 season, so the Cardinals might have to push them a little to see if they are worth protecting on the 40-man roster. Lefty Austin Gomber (16) is a changeup guy with an average fastball and good control, but he was a little advanced for Low-A last year. Outfielder Charlie Tilson (17) is a plus runner with a good approach and can handle center field, but the bat is a little light with no power. He might end up a good fourth outfielder, although his lack of a real platoon split works in his favor. Bryce Denton (18), the Cards' second-round pick in 2015, has huge pull power and needs to work on using the whole field as a hitter; he's a third baseman now but is likely to end up in right field. Lefty Jacob Evans (19), their sixth-rounder in 2015, is a fastball/curveball lefty who has worked primarily as a reliever, even at Oklahoma, with outstanding control. The Cardinals stretched him out to start at the end of last summer, and outside of one disastrous, 10-run outing, he had a 1.25 ERA on the summer. Paul Dejong (20) was their fourth-round pick, a third baseman out of Illinois State with raw power but positional questions.
2016 impact
Marco Gonzales should be the first starter recalled when there's an injury in the Cardinals' rotation -- and four of their five current starters have recent, significant injuries on their resumes. Cooney and Tuivailala should spend much of 2016 in the Cardinals' bullpen. Anthony Garcia could see time as an extra outfielder or even a short-term starter in a corner, as he has good OBP skills that help him play beyond his physical tools.
The fallen
Jacob Wilson broke out in 2014 with a huge season at High-A and Double-A, then continued to hit and show speed and positional versatility in the Fall League. But his 2015 was awful, with a .230/.302/.407 line between Double- and Triple-A that led the Cardinals to omit him from the 40-man roster, which left him exposed to December's Rule 5 draft.
Sleeper
Gonzalez was only in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League but was old enough for full-season ball. He has the combination of stuff and command that could move very quickly once the training wheels are off and he gets to face better competition in the Midwest League.