Organization ranking: 8
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Pirates prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Tyler Glasnow, RHP (6)
2. Austin Meadows, OF (16)
3. Kevin Newman, SS (23)
5. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B (Just missed)
6. Harold Ramirez, OF
7. Jameson Taillon, RHP
8. Cole Tucker, SS
9. Alen Hanson, 2B
10. Reese McGuire, C
Overview
The Pirates have been stingy about giving up prospects the past few years, even when contending, so their system has remained strong even with some significant promotions. Harold Ramirez can hit -- it's at least a 6-grade future hit tool -- but he's limited to left field (where it can be ugly, but he makes the plays) and he doesn't hit for power or work the count and his physical projection is pretty limited. He has a high floor and modest ceiling. Jameson Taillon was a top 20 prospect when healthy, but he has missed two full years now due to Tommy John surgery and hernia surgery; there's a fair amount of risk here, and he will probably need a lot of time to build himself back up to a starter's workload. I'm hopeful (for his sake, more than anyone's) that the plus velocity and plus slider are still there after all this time, as he has a very high ceiling and was on the cusp of the majors before the first injury.
Cole Tucker hurt his shoulder in the first half of the season and tried to play through it, but he eventually had surgery to repair a torn labrum. He'll be back sometime this summer, maybe a little sooner as he was ahead of schedule on his rehab this winter. He has the long-term potential of an above-average regular at short -- a kid with good feel to hit, solid instincts at short, and outstanding makeup -- but I worry that he might come back with less arm strength and have to move to second base. Alen Hanson moved to second base full time and was off to a solid start to 2015 when he fractured his finger, struggling after his return; he has played well in the field and has made some gradual strides in other parts of his game, but it's time for him to consolidate some of those gains into some season-long production now that he's likely to repeat Triple-A at age 23. Reese McGuire is a strong defensive catcher with arm strength and soft hands, although he had a weird drop in his caught-stealing percentage last year (I'm assuming it's a fluke). I'm just not at all sold that he's going to hit enough to be more than a backup. He does make a lot of contact, but it's soft, and his swing isn't geared for much more.
Nick Kingham (11) was a top 100 guy last winter but had Tommy John surgery and is out until midseason. Before he got hurt, he seemed ready for the major league rotation, and I wouldn't rule out seeing him in PNC Park in August or September if all goes well. Colombian right-hander Luis Escobar (12) is a little undersized but holds at 92 to 94 mph with his fastball and touches 96, and he has an average changeup and some feel to spin a curveball; while he's 19 and has just two appearances above the Gulf Coast League, it's a promising package. Yeudy Garcia (13) has even more arm strength -- hitting the upper 90s in the Sally League All-Star Game -- and a better frame but a little less present secondary stuff. He signed at 20 out of the Dominican Republic and went from the Dominican Summer League in 2014 right to the West Virginia Power's rotation in Low-A last year. Catcher Elias Diaz (14) has a high floor as a strong-armed catcher with good feel for the mental side of the game; and while he has minimal offensive skills, he does put the ball in play enough to hit an empty .250 or so in the majors. Right-hander Chad Kuhl (15) gets ground-ball outs while throwing 92 to 97 mph and flashes a 60 slider but is nowhere near consistent with it; so the University of Delaware (!) product keeps runs off the board but doesn't miss many bats.
The Bucs added right-hander Trevor Williams (16) in a trade with the Marlins -- rumored, but not confirmed, to be compensation for the Marlins hiring esteemed exec Marc Delpiano and pitching guru Jim Benedict -- and they could help the former Arizona State starter find the third pitch he'll need to be a starter; he has command of the fastball and change but needs an average breaking ball. Clayton Holmes (17) came back from 2014 Tommy John surgery for nine rehab starts, but he had to shut it down again with dead arm. Mitch Keller (18) had a down year, with some back problems that interrupted his season, but he looked better in instructs, and the Pirates are still optimistic -- as I was coming into the year. Shortstop Kevin Kramer (19), the Bucs' second-round pick last June, might not have the power to play every day but -- stop me if you've heard this before -- he makes a lot of contact and has a chance to be a good utility guy who can handle both positions up the middle. Right-hander Jacob Taylor (20) blew out his elbow in his first pro outing -- known as "pulling a Giolito" -- and then had Tommy John surgery, but he should be back late in 2016.
2016 impact
If Tyler Glasnow doesn't get 20 starts and Josh Bell doesn't get at least two months at first base, something's gone awry in Pittsburgh.
The fallen
Connor Joe, the 39th overall pick in 2014, slugged just .303 as a 22-year-old first baseman in Low-A, drawing lots of walks but not producing much else.
Sleeper
Garcia and Escobar both seem like good bets to take a step forward in 2016 given how good their raw stuff is and, in Garcia's case, the positive results he already has had in full-season ball.