Organization ranking: 5
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Brewers prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Orlando Arcia, SS (10)
2. Brett Phillips, OF (46)
3. Trent Clark, OF (70)
4. Jorge Lopez, RHP (75)
5. Michael Reed, OF (Just missed)
6. Gilbert Lara, SS
7. Josh Hader, LHP
8. Isan Diaz, SS
9. Adrian Houser, RHP
10. Jacob Nottingham, C
Overview
Boy did this system get better in a hurry. Doug Melvin made some shrewd trades, Ray Montgomery's staff had a killer draft last year and new general manager David Stearns continued to add prospects this winter. Prospects six through nine all could make cases to be in the global top 100. Gilbert Lara came to the rookie-level Arizona League at age 17 when most kids his age are still in the Dominican Summer League (or are in their junior years of high school), and he played shortstop fairly well while showing some bat speed and potential for power down the road. He might outgrow shortstop and end up at third base, but there's a decent chance he'll have the bat and pop to profile as an above-average regular there. Josh Hader has had starter-grade results and he'll show you two or more pitches, but his is a very tough arm slot -- lower than any recent starter I can think of except Justin Masterson -- that gives right-handed hitters a long look at him, while it's hard for him to stay on top of his slider or turn over a changeup. The fastball is filthy and I don't know how any left-handed hitter stays in the box rather than run screaming back to the dugout.
Jacob Nottingham was part of the return for Khris Davis; he's a former football player who now is a big-bodied catcher (listed at 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds) with a plus arm, average receiving and hand strength to generate lots of hard contact. He likes to swing the bat and needs to work on improving his at-bats to get into better counts. Similarly, Isan Diaz just came over to organization in the Jean Segura trade; he's a very bright hitter with a superclean swing who showed surprising power in the Pioneer League. I'll believe he's a .640 slugging guy when he does it in the Midwest League. He's a shortstop now but will eventually move to second or, better in my view, third; even if he has just average power, he has the hit tool and plate discipline to profile there. Adrian Houser was part of the big Carlos Gomez deal that brought Phillips over as well; the Brewers' scouts saw some little mechanical tweaks he could make to repeat his delivery more, and it clicked. He was throwing 94 to 96 mph as a starter with an above-average curveball and average changeup, and if he had pitched all year like he did for Biloxi after the trade, he would have been in the middle of the top 100 or would be in Houston's rotation.
Outfielder Monte Harrison (11) struggled in Appleton to start the year -- to be fair, not many guys hit there in April -- and he was raking in the Pioneer League when he broke his ankle, ending his season on July 21st. He came into pro ball with a raw approach as a two-sport guy from Lee's Summit, Missouri, who had virtually no experience facing better off-speed stuff, so the Midwest League was a huge leap for him. Zack Davies (12) is what you saw last year: a back-end starter; major league ready; limited upside. Marcos Diplan (13), acquired in the Yovani Gallardo trade, is up to 94 mph with a good changeup and pitched very well as an 18-year-old in the advanced rookie Pioneer League. Tyrone Taylor (14) looks like a tweener, lacking the defense for center or the offense for a corner; he's never going to have the home run power to play left or right, but if he can become a big-doubles guy and use the whole field, he should carve out a career. Lefty Kodi Medeiros (15) has a reliever's arm action and no changeup; he is working as a starter now but already is showing a platoon split. Clint Coulter (16) had a disappointing year in the Florida State League, losing offense in every possible way, but he is still just 21 and Brevard is a terrible place to hit (in a league that is as a whole lousy for offense). Devin Williams (17) hasn't filled out yet as expected, still more 90 to 93 mph with some feel for a changeup, but scouts have also said his maturity and mound presence aren't where they should be for a 20-year-old.
Javier Betancourt (18), acquired in a minor trade with Detroit, has a chance to be a utility infielder because of his positional versatility. Demi Orimoloye (19), a Canadian outfielder born in Nigeria, makes loud contact and can run and throw, but he showed trouble with pitch recognition as an amateur and had the same problem in the Arizona League. Bubba (real name Bowdien) Derby (20) is right-hander shorter than 6 feet who has been throwing 94 to 95 mph in shorter stints with good command, and he might move fast in a relief role.
The Brewers nabbed two injured college pitchers in Cody Ponce and Nate Kirby, both of whom could have gone in the first round had they been healthy. Kirby turned out to be more injured than anyone realized and had Tommy John surgery after the draft, signing for a reduced bonus. Miguel Diaz ended up missing most of 2015 due to injury, outside of 20 innings repeating the Arizona League. Jacob Gatewood struggled to make contact in the Midwest League and even in the Pioneer League after he and Harrison were sent down a level; he's going to have to move off shortstop and to stop pulling everything to the shortstop. The Brewers picked up Garin Cecchini from the Red Sox after he had an atrocious year repeating Triple-A, hitting 213/.286/.296 and losing his spot on Boston's 40-man roster. However, he's a former top 100 prospect who, if nothing else, seemed to have a 50/55 hit tool and was worth the flier for Milwaukee.
2016 impact
Davies could win a rotation spot in the spring. Orlando Arcia has to at least get a look in March at shortstop, although the team might want to play Jonathan Villar for a month or so to manipulate Arcia's service time and let Arcia get some at-bats in Triple-A. Damien Magnifico might appear in their bullpen at some point; he throws heat at 96 to 97 mph with a short but effective mid-80s slider. Yadiel Rivera is a 70-grade defender at short who cannot hit but could stick around as a utility guy. (I mean, he can. Not. Hit. He has a .244/.289/.349 career line in the minors in more than 2,600 plate appearances, and it's not like it's getting better.) Reed should get a fair shot to win the center-field job now, both because he's ready and so the Brewers can evaluate him for a year before Phillips arrives.
The fallen
Taylor Williams was one of the team's up-and-coming pitching prospects after a huge 2014 campaign, but he hurt his elbow in the spring, tried to rehab it and ended up having Tommy John surgery in August. So he may end up missing two full seasons before even getting back on a mound and will be 25 by April 2017, with just five career starts above Low-A.
Sleeper
All of them? Don't sleep on Monte Harrison; if the progress he made in off-speed pitch recognition in Helena (but had not made in the Midwest League) is real and sustainable, he makes a lot of loud contact and is athletic enough to be a plus defender in an outfield corner.